If Israel decides to preemptively strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, a subservient United States could be drawn into another unnecessary but substantial war in the Middle East.
If Israel’s warplanes, donated from the U.S., managed to penetrate Iranian air space and bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, then Iran would be expected to retaliate in a number of ways, including firing of Shahab-3 ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv or attacking Israel through a proxy like Hezbollah.
With domestic politics in the U.S. being as ideologically wedded to Israel as they are, even if it works against U.S. interests, any Iranian retaliation could mean mobilizing American firepower — warplanes, warships, special operations forces and possibly airborne infantry — against Iran.
Not only would it severely destabilize the geopolitics of the volatile region, but it would mean extremely high casualty rate for Iranian civilians and it could prompt a string of violent consequences leading to even broader war. Iran would probably be inclined to attack U.S. military bases in the region, particularly the one in Kuwait or Bahrain, not far from Iran’s southern coast.
Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for the world’s oil markets that is constantly patrolled by fleets of U.S. navy warships, but the Strait is of great importance to the Iranian economy, so it has been understood as very unlikely. But if it is faced with war, Iran would then see such a move as worth the costs.
Not only would such a conflict be extremely costly, but it would be entirely uncalled for considering Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon and has demonstrated no intention of doing so, according to the most comprehensive U.S. intelligence.
The fact that a reckless, unjustified Israeli war of aggression in the Middle East should warrant costly U.S. involvement as Israel’s protectorate shows the perversity of U.S. foreign policy. U.S. aid, weapons welfare, and overall unwavering commitment to Israel essentially incentivizes Israeli leadership to behave in reckless, unjustified ways. Perhaps without such unparalleled support, the rate of unnecessary wars in the Middle East would decrease considerably.