The tiny island nation of Bahrain is the home to a major uprising at this point, and while government censorship is making it difficult to get the full picture, a brutal crackdown earlier today near the hospital has left massive numbers of casualties and a growing sense of fury amongst the nation’s Shi’ite majority.
The situation in Bahrain now appears to be a test case for tyrants across the region, as a monarch that is clearly opposed by a strong majority of the population struggles to cling to power through international support and determined, grim violence.
Which was tried in Tunisia, unsuccessfully, and tried in Egypt even more unsuccessfully. One would think the lesson that violence just makes demonstrators all the angrier is lost in Bahrain’s first, and potentially last king, but the island nation’s differences from massive nations like Egypt have some holding out hope that brutality can “work” in this case.
In particular, regional analysts note a massive amount of opposition amongst Bahrain’s Gulf neighbors to the notion of a free nation where the majority of the population is Shi’ite. With the Saudis in particular fretting an uprising amongst their own Shi’ites if the ones on the island suddenly take a liking to individual freedom.
The US, likewise, is struggling to ensure “stability” in the region, but as with Egypt is so far behind the curve that their ability to sway the situation appears to be extremely minimal. The hawkish US leadership needs Bahrain as a naval base far more than Bahrain needs it.
And Bahrain is so tiny that a foreign nation like Saudi Arabia probably could just overrun it and massacre the Shi’ites into quieting down, or failing that massacring them into a voting minority. A number of analysts see this as a likely reaction from nations that fear a free Bahrain almost as much as they fear freedom in their own nations.
But in the 21st century massacres don’t go unreported, and even if the US stands back and lets someone else slaughter the king back into a position of strength, the global outcry over such an incident is likely to be even more destabilizing to the region’s tyrants than the natural thirst for freedom already is. In the long run, there are no good solutions for how to keep a dictator in power when the people want him gone.
Wow. Power to the people!
The problem Bahrain's 70% majority have is that they are the wrong religion. Protests in Bahrain will continue, as the majority has been radicalized by the unbelievably dumb reaction by the ruling royals. If we have learned anything from Bahrain — royal faces have shown to be incompetent, complacent, and brutal. However, the Army consists of mostly mercenary immigrants that Bahrain carefully collected throughout the region to insure loyalty of Sunni soldiers. This is why it is so much easier to shoot the population.
There is a real danger that the West will pretend not to see what is going on, and it will encourage Saudi Arabia to help Bahrain slaughter its population. The danger to Saudi Arabia is that just accross the waterway from Bahrain is the Shiite population of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is already nervous over events in Yemen, and may end up overreacting. It will be against US interests, so this is the time to exert every bit of influence to curb the bloodthrirsty urge of the potentates that think too highly of themselves.
Well, if mercantilist interests managed to engineer an uprising in Hawaii and later managed to make the US put the area officially under protectorate status…
… why not do a Hawaii 2 here? The fleet base is already there.
Good idea or what? Someone please page Hillary.
I must confess it's something of a mystery to me why all this is happening at once. A month ago everything in the mideast was buttoned up. Now the whole place is in a state of riot. What gives?
Also, Mubarak's ouster came so easily that most people imagine this is some kind of model for what will happen elsewhere. Reality check time. Mubarak's regime did not fall. He's gone, but that's nothing. The people supplied the impetus, but it was the military that in the end forced the retirement of the primary symbol of the people's frustration, and now the military is in charge, and behind it the US and Israel. Same old same old. Further change, of the sort the people really want, seems entirely problematic. The powerful never willingly retire without leaving heaps of corpses lying about.
What I see coming is not successful revolutions, but rather successful massacres of the young and restless. Wish it weren't so, but who will prevent it?
There's no mystery really. People have been repressed for too long. They see the other guys do it and they find their voice too and do it themselves. Funny how hope is contagious. It's beginning to happen in the US too where people have been fat, stupid and hypnotized for too long, why not in the ME where people have been oppressed, repressed, abused and poor for much longer? The time to fight back has finally come! Also, back in the day of the French Revolution there was no way to tell. Today, the entire world is connected. Someone farts in the North Pole and the rest of the world smells it within minutes.
Much like history is lost on the US and they continue to do the same thing expecting different results, the tinpot dictators they support are exactly the same. They each thinks he's special and they each think that what failed with the other guy will work with him for sure if for no other reason because he's special and he can do it better, kill more people and make it more gruesome than the other guy. Arrogance – not curiosity – gets the cat each and every single time.
If the Bahraini government does decide to massacre its population, can the US and UK avoid a "humanitarian intervention" to stop it after their claims about the invasion of Iraq?
What if Iran decides that it should intervene on humanitarian grounds? Will the US and UK stand in the way?
The US that claims it always defends democracy and justice should support the opressed people of Bahrain. I am sure they will not be anti U.S. if they are given their rights and supported by US.