Once touted as a “stabilizing event” by US officials hopeful of a summer troop drawdown, Iraq’s March 7 election has turned out to be one of the most destabilizing events the nation has seen in recent years, so much so that the initial winner, Iraqiya bloc leader Ayad Allawi, is now openly calling for an internationally-established caretaker government and new elections.
With repeated disqualifications before and after the election and at least one Iraqiya MP being held without charges by the Maliki government, the chances of an equanimous settlement seem to be getting slimmer by the day.
Though it is clear the Obama Administration would like to see the situation resolved as quickly as possible, so far all they’ve done is issue a vague statement admonishing everyone to “set aside their differences” and work together.
Though on the surface one might expect the administration to be more pro-active there seems to be a growing reticence to make comments which could create enmity between the US and whoever eventually ends up in charge of Iraq. The greatest fear, according to one analyst, is “another Karzai-like mess.”
As the US waits for someone to seem safely in charge enough to embrace, the date of the US promised “drawdown” draws ever near, and increasingly, the threat of rising violence looks to derail that schedule.
Sectarian violence is likely to start brewing again. Should give the military the excuse they've been looking for to reoccupy the cities and hang around Iraq a bit longer than planned.
Wait, didn't "we" win the Iraqnam War? Seems like somebody said that. What was it? 'Mission Accomplished' or some prattle like that there. Golly, one never hears about the Iraqnam in the mainstream media reporting of propaganda. So why should anyone care about Iraq elections? I mean, wouldn't Iraq elections be the Iraqi people's problem? You know, like IF someone won or didn't win. Hasn't Iraq become so 'George Bush passé'?
The US and Coalition Forces, along with Israel sub rosa, very likely have a key role in trying to foment and increase Sunni-Shi'a enmity.
If the US and Coalition aim to stay much longer or to reoccupy the cities, US casualties will become prohibitive.
With the war in Afghanistan, Sadr's and Iran's influence, and the US preoccupation with threatening Iran–the situation is much direr for the US and Coalition than it may appear.
The Turks are also increasingly in on the act, and seem to be reaching a rapprochement with Iran.
That is a huge sea change from the earlier alliance with Israel and the US.