Tensions between the US and China keep worsening, and with a danger of military confrontation, the US is looking to assemble a formal anti-China alliance, hoping to model it after NATO. The US envisions the alliance to include Australia, Japan, and India.
Meetings are expected in the Fall, in Delhi, with the US playing them up as a “challenge to China” in the region. The US clearly has an interest in building anti-China coalitions, spending as much time as they do complaining about China.
But other than India, which has had some recent border clashes with China, it’s not clear how good of a fit these nations are, beyond the US picking Japan and Australia as wealthy nations that could afford to spend on their militaries.
Trade with China is important for Australia, and they likely will be wary of any deal that risks that. Japan has territorial disputes with China, but has limited military assets to contribute, and there remains opposition to real militarization there.
This alliance will definitely NOT include India ir Japan. No matter the birder issue — India is bound by membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization to not take any actions to harm China. India also has a sizable trade with China not worth upsetting, and smaller trade with US. Japan is in a very difficult situation, as exports to China are their life line. US cannot offer anything to make up for it.
Australia — in spite of a potentially calamitous impact on trade — may be the only one willing. The reasons are more complex then trade. Australia will try to stay close to American/European countries in any conflict. It will look for safety in the US shadow. I believe that in spite of protestations, Australia would prefer the world stay the same, and would prefer to be able to keep its Asian neighbors at distance,
The regime of Narendrabhai Damodardasbhai Modi is in bad shape and desperately looking for a distraction. Even by its own, totally unreliable, figures, the economy crashed by 23.9% this year. But it also needs to keep Russia on side; a Russia-China-Pakistan alliance isn’t something the gibbering globetrotting Gujarati genocidaire gangster’s government is willing to risk.
It may look that way — but it is by far more complex. India’s crash of economy is linked to US crash of 33%. India has a large sector of economy dependent on US outsourcing of IT services. Those crashed. But sectors tied to Asian economies including China — are doing good. India has a bad surge in COVID cases.
Modi has been on a mission to create a unified nation, and counter globalist influences that made the country’s infrastructure dismal, and maintained caste society riddled by disparity in wealth, and without common Indian identity or development goal.
With dozens of ethnicities, religions and languages — India is vulnerable in modern world. In the West, population as a whole does not seriously question government “muscular” foreign policy, and “robust” push for “liberalizing” other countries’ assets.
In modern world of “muscular” West, one must have an equally “muscular” sense of national survival and pride. Modi is building it — and the protestations are coming from Western-inspired identity warriors, trying to stop this consolidation of national goals.
Kashmir was a good solution, eliminating the colonial era administration that created conditions for conflict. Both India and China are using the conflict to firm up the national-belonging narrative. India in its isolated northern region and China in Uyghur region and Tibet.
China and India understand each other. And Russia. Look at the strengthened military ties between both India and Russia as well as Pakistan and Russia.
There is much method to Modi madness. Why do you think that in the conflict zone India and China have not used firearms? Only fists, sticks and stones? Does not mean that a hothead on either side will not cause trouble — but it is clear that this well managed conflict has political goals that both sides need to achieve in the region — including Bhutan.
No firearms were used because a 1995 agreement prohibits carrying of firearms within two kilometres of either side of the de facto border – the Line Of Control – in order to prevent any accidental war from breaking out. That is the reason.
Modi was put into power in the 2014 election due to extreme and deserved disgust for the preceding ten year government of the Congress party. Not because anytime expected anything of Modi but because everyone was desperate to be rid of the Congress. Modi’s own stint has made people nostalgic for the Congress. Unfortunately Modi knows how to distract from that: by creating constant clashes and confrontations on the borders and posing as the Defender Of The Nation.
Modi is a corporate stooge owned by his fellow Gujaratis Mukeshbhai Dhirubhai Ambani and Gautambhai Shantilalbhai Adani. Economically he will do whatever they order. His entire economic policy, such as it is, is focussed on rewarding corporate Big Business. Modi’s party was originally supposed to be the party of the “baniyas” (shopkeepers) but he’s long since abandoned them to become a full time Big Business tool. Now said Big Business also has considerable investment in China, and that is one important reason why Modi’s chest thumping against China will remain limited to manufactured border confrontations and bans on apps like TikTok.
Modi on mission to unify nation, EXCEPT Muslims, Jaines Christians, Buddhists, Zorastrian, Bahia and fair minded Athiests. To name Some Dis-?-unities!!!!! Geo Wallace like apartheid unity!
AGAIN — you are simplifying. It is so easy to make ANY case when we simplify.
Let me then FILL IN GAPS in your information.
Modi introduced Citizenship bill, to address legalization process for millions of refugees — be that wars in Afghanistan and refugees from persecution from various parts of region.
The law raised an uproar, mostly
from Moslem population.
The law did something unusual. For RELIGIOUS and ETHNIC MINORITIES that FLED persecution from region — they could get automatic citizenship without having to prove their individual case of persecution. Christians were BIG beneficiaries
of the change, and so were many other minorities.
The biggest concern was raised by Moslem refugees, as they had to document the reasons for continuing the stay in the country. There are many REAL concerns there — many raised children in their new country, and would be heard on children.
But the laws in all countries does require people to return if not in danger. Clearly Moslems from Bangladesh and Pakistan are not in dangers from persecution. For Afghani refugees, they still have the case for staying.
The process was politicized — making it sound as if India was discriminating against Moslems.
Dealing with refugees is thorny problem. But to say that India discriminates agains Moslems is ABSURD. Not even Indian Moslems claim that — but various critics of Modi never miss an opportunity to trash him.
This same Modi regime systematically persecutes Christians and routinely arrests priests and pastors on the accusation that they are conducting “conversions”: in most Indian states ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party conversions away from Hinduism are effectively banned while conversion to Hinduism – known as “ghar wapsi”, or “homecoming” – are aggressively and constantly promoted and encouraged.
Please, accept that you don’t know as much about Modi and India as we Indians do.
Also, you seem to be totally ignorant of Modi’s concurrent National Citizenship Register (NCR) which compels everyone to prove their Indian citizenship, even if born in India and living all their lives in India. Not everyone has a passport or other official documentation, especially in the villages and urban slums. Muslims, being largely poor and marginalised, are even worse off than others in this respect. Since by virtue of the CAA – which by the way is ultra vires of the secular Indian constitution – non Muslims can claim citizenship as “refugees”, but Muslims can’t, the entire idea is to disenfranchise Muslims and make them non citizens.
https://thewire.in/tech/facebook-hate-speech-bjp-wall-street-journal— state introduced hate speech against Muslim
– https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-election-artists/under-modi-hindu-hardliners-turn-indian-theatre-into-a-battleground-idUKKCN1SM0N0 https://www.newsclick.in/over-250-muslim-houses-turned-ashes-meerut – media is silenced and the atrocities are prevented from seeing the daylight
https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/lifestyle/27-years-ago-40-muslims-massacred-today-accused-walk-free/vi-BBiCEmT – RSS-BJP has been killing for a while
Today, we have reclaimed Jammu and Kashmir,” said MP Sanjay Raut, a member of Shiv Sena, “Tomorrow, we will take Baluchistan, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and I have trust that this government will fulfill the dream of undivided India.” http://www.antiwar.com
“We can keep making messages go viral, whether they are real or fake, sweet or sour,” the BJP president boasted. https://thewire.in/politics/amit-shah-bjp-fake-social-media-messages
“Gujarat pogrom,” of Muslims were carried out by Narendra Modi.https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/12/24/india-under-modi-becoming-brutal-authoritarian-state– Godhra train burning itself was either accidentally or intentionally staged by Hindu pilgrims .( The Hindustan Times )
Deadly Alliances Against Muslims New York Times October 16, 2014 documenting RSS-BJP’s ideology shaping violence against Muslim in neighboring countries . Also see http://www.ipcs.org/comm_select.php?articleNo=4714. and in Nepal -https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/16/india-islamophobia-hindu-nationalism-nepal/ Violence by Cow worshippers- http://www.india.com/news/india/hindu-beef-traders-why-all-the-fuss-over-justice-rajinder-sachars-remark-723206/ In 3 days RSS destroyed 15 Muslims places – shrines and mosques in Delhi- https://scroll.in/article/955713/in-photos-fifteen-muslim-shrines-in-delhi-that-were-burnt-by-hindutva-vigilantes-in-three-days https://original.antiwar.com/pieter-j-friedrich/2019/08/07/jammu-and-kashmir-loses-special-status https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/a-peep-into-the-history-rewriting-project/story-DodYmxp8uLc23XUTETZ19N.htmlhttps://countercurrents.org/2020/07/monolithic-concept-of-ramayana-is-anti-ramayana/ https://www.karvaanindia.com/2020/06/18/foreign-policy-on-the-export-of-indias-islamophobia-to-nepal / https://thewire.in/communalism/madhya-pradesh-lawyer-police-betul https://thewire.in/communalism/ground-report-what-really-happened-in-violence-hit-telinipara-west-bengal https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/hate-goes-viral-in-india/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/20/world/asia/india-muslims-citizenship.
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/12/article/muslims-targeted-in-indias-most-populous-state/
— I can provide you few dozens more links and covering on ly last 40 years showing the calculated state initiated violence against Muslim by RSS outfits repeatedly .
The Shiv Sena has broken with the Modi regime and is now allied to the Congress. It is still however an even more Hindu fascist party than Modi’s BJP.
Indian muslims born and raised there and the families living there for generations are being asked to provide documents showing the proof of the birth or proof of residence dated before 1971 Often they are being sked not show the proof of the birth of the father mother and grand parents . A nation where there has never been any systematic record of birth and death until 21st century and has never had any consistent officially verifiable traceable record of ownership of land ( In Delhi Calcutta and Bombay many high rise structures have been built illegally and sold . It has been possible because of the vague or unclear documents of ownerships ) is not in a position to ask for document from poor uneducated family to ascertain the citizenship .More Hindus than muslims were found lacking the required documents in NE India . How did BJP-RSS solve it ? They simply said that any non Muslims will be allowed to stay . How did NE India react ? They related violently against BJP’s logic .
Yes, in Assam, the state with the largest Muslim population after Kashmir, all ethnic Bengali Muslims were called “Bangladeshi immigrants” and it was expected that the majority of them would fail to prove their citizenship. So the Modi regime government of the state started the Citizenship Tribunal where everyone was to prove their citizenship. To their shock well over half the people who couldn’t were Hindus. It was in response to this situation that the Modi regime introduced the Citizenship Amendment Act, meant to allow all Hindus citizenship but specifically exclude Muslims.
Bianca’s knowledge of India seems to rest on a couple of Modi media articles she read somewhere.
It’s not just that. Hinduism isn’t even a religion, it’s a group of allied but different religions with some fundamental beliefs in common (like the idea that all gods are just manifestations of one God – it is a hardcore monotheistic faith at the foundation level – or the idea that anyone is literally free to believe anything). Hindus are also an incredibly ethnically and linguistically diverse group, with nothing in common in language, culture, or religious practice between, say, a Manipuri Hindu from the North East and a Marwari Hindu from the North West and a Malayali Hindu from the far south. But like the template of fascist thought followed by Hitler (Ein Volk! Ein Reich! Ein Führer! To which you can add Ein Kultur!) Modi’s vision is to have one uniform Hinduism, with a fixed number of gods, a fixed cuisine (a hell of a lot of Hindus eat beef in reality, for instance, but that would be verboten), even approved hairstyles, and, of course, the imposition of Hindi (a language that’s foreign to about 60% of Indians) as the only permissible official language. They aren’t even at all shy about it. Modi is as anti Hindu as everything else. By the way the Jains are now a subsect of Hinduism, almost all far right wing, and tend to support Modi. Some Indian Muslims (the Yemeni origin Bohris , who are Big Business, and Shia, who hate Sunnis more than anything else) also tend to support Modi. It’s this kind of divide and rule that makes Modi’s life easier.
He now has the status of Bhagwan Modi.
Literally two Modi temples last I checked.
+ BRICS.
The New York Times interviewed one current and five former members of the Assam tribunals that review suspected foreigners. The five former members said they had felt pressured by the government to declare Muslims to be noncitizens. 3 of them, including Ms. Rajkumari, said they were fired because they did not do so. State and central government officials declined to comment. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/asia/india-modi-citizenship-muslims-assam.html
How does it view neighboring countries ?
RSS-BJP made explicit threats to Nepal saying what happened to Sikkim-Tibet would happen to Nepal if Nepal wanted the land back ( given to India for temporary use in 1962)
How did it react when Bangladesh imported onion from Pakistan after being shut out of the delivery and supply by India ? It felt Bangladesh is destroying the peace and diplomacy that exist between India and Bangladesh and titling to Pakistan .
Don’t forget the Modi regime blockaded Nepal for writing its constitution as it wanted and not as dictated by India.
anglophone racism—expected in a failing empire
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade
It doesn’t seem real
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade
The is rather strange. How high can tensions really be?
They will all join. Australia has already housed secret US intallations for decades.
“challenge to China” = aggression to China
The US knows it can`t win an economic and military conflict with China alone, so US strategy is to use pressure, arm twisting, threats and black mail to get NAT0, friends and allies, behind US aggression against China, they will have to take the burden, at home in Chinese retaliatory strikes and as canon fodder at the front line.
Like previous empires in their downfall, empires tend to drag their friends and allies with them in their downfall.
Australia’s population is small, especially in comparison to China. It is 25 million people compared to 1,400 million people, 56:1.
People just looking a a map simply don’t see the numbers that matter.
Australia can offer the US no more than Denmark offered against the USSR in NATO, that is a base from which the US could operate against the US enemy as the US saw fit. Oddly, the Australians are not charmed with the idea of being used in that way.
Meanwhile, Japan is still conflicted about its militaristic past. The right wing in charge does not represent all opinion, and cannot by itself carry Japan back into a military confrontation with China. It was war with China that destroyed Japan last time.
As for India, it made its position clear when it created the Non-Aligned Movement that refused to take sides between the US and USSR. Again its right wing is in charge at the moment, but that can’t carry the whole nation against its own traditions and best interests into war with China. Keep in mind that India’s “border” with China is the highest mountain range in the world. There is limited ability to fight on the mountain, less to fight over or past the mountains. That is the story of the Burma Road and flying The Hump to get into China to fight Japan. Now to fight China itself over the same route with no help on the other side?
An anti-China coalition? While the USA is ruining its economy with the war nonsense China is playing the capitalist free trade game not only in Europe, but also in Africa.
China still hates Japan for their atrocities in the 1930’s/40’s. Those who remember, anyway.
Obviously the arms merchants want more money…and only war will bring them that. Sad that the rest of us are simply treated as their disposable pawns.
Australia as the US most loyal colony will be most offended if it isnt invited. Canberra would bomb itself to please Uncle Sam.
Isn’t the Darwin port leased to China.? US marines are in the vicinity in rotation for exercises.
Under Modi toxic nationalism has taken hold in India. .
Will the USA ever stop it’s madness. Go build a perimeter wall around the entire country, and leave the rest of us alone. Your population can spend the next few years shooting each other. In that case, you can re-elect Trump. He represents all that is wrong with America.
Desperation of a dying empire.
The US just can’t resist trying to dominate and harass other countries if they don’t do whatever the US wants them to do, or if they are more successful economically than the US is. The US is the world’s biggest bully. I hope I live long enough to see the US get its well-deserved comeuppance.