In October, President Trump refused to certify Iran’s compliance with the P5+1 nuclear deal. Though the UN and the other nations all agree Iran is actually complying, Trump said the deal was objectionable, and decertified to give Congress a chance to withdraw the US from it.
It’s been almost 90 days since, and President Trump will have another certification deadline on January 11. He’s not expected to certify again, but he’s also said to be mad Congress didn’t withdraw from the deal, and may try to withdraw the US unilaterally.
With some of the sanctions waivers also up in the week that follows certification, President Trump may attempt to reimpose the pre-deal sanctions. The US would be in violation of the deal, even if they didn’t withdraw formally.
The hope from Trump and other opponents of the deal is that if the US starts flagrantly violating the deal, Iran may also withdraw, and the US could use that as a pretext for a military confrontation.
That’s unlikely, however, as since October, Iran and the rest of the P5+1 have all discussed ways to keep the deal in place without US participation. Supporters of the deal have long warned a US pullout would just hurt US credibility.
“…long warned a US pullout would just hurt US credibility.”
Of which the US is severely lacking recently and doesn’t seem interested in regaining. I can only imagine the furor from the Ersatz-Führer when some of our “allies” in the EU react negatively if the US does pull out of the agreement.
The US has already violated it’s side of the nuclear deal by imposing new sanctions over Iran’s missile program, which is not covered by the nuclear deal. Some news stories managed to confuse the issue by saying these missiles could carry nuclear weapons, without emphasizing that Iran does not have such nuclear weapons and is under unprecedented oversight to ensure they aren’t working to develop them.
Iran’s military forces have also arbitrarily been labeled a terrorist organization. Our leaders are senselessly doing everything they can to maintain an adversarial relationship towards Iran, faulting them for having a military and constructively engaging in their region. The goal is to ensure the regimes of Sunnis and Israel dominate the Middle East, but a side effect is that Americans and everyone else are made far less safe.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2017-11-03/how-us-can-deal-irans-ballistic-missile-program
How do the US electors manage to find a way to put someone so out-of-control in power? How is it that the USA constantly overthrows leaders and governments democratically elected in other countries, yet has no idea how to run its own Homeland? Obama and Clinton, plus of course GWBush, made all this possible, and moaning and raving on about Russia does nothing to help anyone solve what could be an existential problem for the USA and for the rest of us too.
Never mind. We have Russia-gate to concern ourselves about. Don’t worry about us enabling the starvation of Yemen either. Just more TDS.
I’m convinced Iran has already had nuclear-tipped missiles since the early 1990s. Their military sites can hold these and are not open to inspections.
You’d think they would use them as one very large bargaining chip.
Trump killing this deal was inevitable, I am surprised Congress has been silent but they are mostly subservient to AIPAC so basically afraid to speak out I suspect.
The US couldn’t care less about its “credibility”. That ship sailed long ago.
The US and Israel want a war with Iran and they’re going to keep pushing until they get it. But first they have to take out Hizballah in Lebanon and preferably also Syria. Russia screwed the latter plan, but the US and Israel will keep trying.
My home country is pitiless empire. I welcome any damage to its so called credibility. Thanks Trump.