In a move that is simultaneously seen as undermining the Saudi War in Yemen and also a virtually necessary consequence of that war, a group of political, military, and tribal figures, led by former Aden Governor Aidaroos Zubaidi, have announced that they are launching a formal movement for the secession of South Yemen, making the announcement with the flag of the former country.
South Yemen was conquered by North Yemen in 1994, unifying the country under northern ruler Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh ruled unified Yemen until 2012, when Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi was appointed to replace him. Hadi resigned in 2015, leading to the Saudi invasion to try to reinstall him by force.
Northern Yemen is controlled by the Shi’ite Houthi movement now, while the Saudi-backed forces of Hadi rule the south, with the country once again split largely along the historic border. There was always some southern nationalism within Yemen, and the war’s de facto split has brought it back to the fore.
Hadi allies are complaining the secessionist movement might undermine the Saudi bid to conquer the whole country for them, while many southerners say they expect the smaller Gulf Arab states, who are also deeply involved in the Saudi War, to back the right of self-determination for the south.
Despite formally being a unified country for over 20 years, southern Yemenis long complained of discrimination by northern rulers, and the various crackdowns by Saleh et al. against secessionist movements in the past gave them very much the feel of an occupied territory.
Ironically, despite a split being the opposite of the Saudi goal in the war, that same war has made it a de facto reality, and accepting it as a de jure reality too would be a very simple way to resolve the ongoing war, assuming the Saudis will accept not only a sovereign South Yemen, but a North Yemen that has a substantial and influential Shi’ite population.
Amazing. It is not Saudi Arabia that cares so much — but US neocons. To their nineteen century geoplolitical logic, there must be one country — even though such country never existed in history. The post cold war shoving of Southern trubes under the rule of Sana’a was hardly Saleh invention. Saleh was severely punished and chastised leading up to first Iraqi war when he tried to declare Yemen neutral. At the time, even King of Saudi Arabia was reluctant to approve US military on its soil. Bush the Elder asked Saudi Ming to stop “dragging his feet”. Those were the neocon dreams come true. Let us call things what they are. North is — and has for over 1,000 years been Shiite. To have us thrown off scent, neocon propaganda came up with “Houthis”, using the name of a leader. But these people are Yemeni ZAIDI, the refugees from Saudi persecution of Shia branch of Islam. This was the longest running monarchy in the Middle East, until Saudi paid military coup removed the last imam in the fifthies. South was a conglomeration of Khaliphates, Emirates and Sultanates. The most historic being Hadhramouth.
From the beginning of the conflict both north and south AGREED to split — and supported each other. It is US neocons that pushed Saudi Arabia to force Southerner Hadi — himself not enthusiastic, to rule in Sana’a. But now there is another snag — most of the Saudi richest families originate from those Southern monarchies. But that means giving Shia back their own state — and this is a reason there is a push to cut North of their historic ports, Mocha and Hodeidah. This is pure vitriol — there is no strategic value to anyone to suffocate North Yemen. With US already controling Bab Al Mandeb — both ends of Red Sea can be chocked off for navigation. If Saudi Arabia does not trust US, and is trying to keep “one Yemen”, as means of bypassing the streights — then better make friends with Shia, be that Iran, Iraq, Syria or North Yemen. If Saudis have complete confidence in US, then why bother with North Yemen? Let it go free! No, it all boils down to neocon design for Middle East — and in that design any country that has a sizeable Shia population — must be desintegrated, or Shia population marginalized and their rights as human beings taken away. Long ago, all sorts of designs were made on Lebanon — a weak and divided country. Israel targeted it twice. In the second round, in 2006, its invasion was stalled by Shia paramilitary, Hezbollah. And even though in Lebanon the group is revered for saving the country — Israel still calls them terforists. In Bahrain, a Nazi like regime led by a Sunni dynasty, keeps a vast Shia majotity under trully brutal occupation. Saudi tanks are in Bahrain to assist the regime. Iraq has been divided into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia parts — but it is only Shia population that is fighting ISIS, while Kurds will only get involved when it threatens them. So, with keeping all Shia population in turmoil, the project managers are keepin thrir sights on Iran. Hillary already declared Queen Ester her Biblical hero — but it was not to be.
It is time for US to cut its losses, and let South seceede, become a sultanate along Oman model. And let North go back to not bothering anyone, to their subsistence agriculture that sustained them for centuries.