Russia today announced the beginning of a significant military drawdown in Syria, with the nation’s lone aircraft carrier group being withdrawn from the Syrian coast, and a number of troops apparently set to follow as the ceasefire in the country continues to hold.
Exact details of the drawdown are unclear, but reports suggest a drawdown of some sort was actually always meant to be part of the deal which led to the ceasefire, which began a week ago and continues to mostly hold. There is considerable skepticism, however.
That’s because Russia already announced a drawdown back in 2016, shortly after the February ceasefire began, only to eventually send a number of reinforcements when that collapsed. Until a peace deal is negotiated, these drawdowns are always going to be seen as temporary.
Peace talks are coming though, with plans for negotiations in Kazakhstan some time later in January. Exact dates are not set, and the rebels have largely not committed to take part in the negotiations.
“… and the rebels have largely not committed to take part in the negotiations”.
Where is this information coming from? What are the hold outs to the negotiations? Which groups? Their number of militants? What is “largely”? If this information is from a source, it will help to knowv it. Hope it is not the continuing lamentation over Al-Nusra having been excluded. Any group that did not sign up the cease fire agreement, but not signed up the attendance document ? Any group changing their mind? Since ISIS and Al-Nusra are not “rebels” any more — but terrorists — now that they separated, what are the remaining groups that are not associated to the banned groups — staying out? Or perhaps we just largely do not know.
I believe a recent post here did mention which group, but I’m not remembering at the moment.
It’s looking pretty good Bianca because it’s pretty sure that Syria has been denied to the US. Russia can always step back up if the US meddles too much in attempting to destroy the peace.
Do you think Russia’s ambitions go as far as consolidating Syria into their own realm of control and protection? Or is Russia content for now to leave Syria to it’s own devices under Assad?
And there’s always going to be Iran which is intent on holding up the status quo for Syria. I think the move we can expect in the near future is Russia making it very clear that Iran is now one of their clients. There will be a lot of dying happening around Iran’s borders but no conclusive victory either way.
Syria can obviously now be seen as a client of Russia, even without Russia’s presense in large numbers.