While the claims by the US of an “agreement in principle” between Turkey and Iraq on the former’s involvement in the Mosul invasion appear dramatically overstated, further comments suggest that a compromise may ultimately be worked out around getting Turkey away from its goal of playing a direct role in the ground invasion.
Turkey’s Prime Minister insisted earlier in the week that the country was going to participate in the US-led air war over Mosul, which itself appeared to be a compromise allowing them to stay involved without the inevitable conflicts with the Iraqis. Pentagon officials suggested the role might not end up being a military one at all.
US defense officials told the AFP today that they thought it would be easy to find something “productive for Turkey to do,” and suggested it might be providing medical and humanitarian support,” along with the training operations they’re already engaged in with the Kurdish Peshmerga.
Iraq and Turkey have argued about the presence of Turkish ground troops in the country for over a year now, and Iraqi officials have made clear Turkey is not welcome to participate in the ground invasion. Turkish President Erdogan has insisted Iraq has no right to exclude them, and noted historical Turkish territorial claims on Mosul as part of his argument.
The sovereign nation of Iraq has no right to exclude unwanted Turkish military forces from Iraqi territory? And our (US) Government supports this Turkish military invasion of Iraq, over the objection of the very democratically elected Iraqi government which our Government helped install more than a decade ago? This is total insanity.
I think you may not see the game. Iraq always wanted Turkey. This is why they agreed on military base in Turkey a while ago, and Turkey training Iraqi soldiers who will fight under Turkey command. The reason for the drama is as follows. US has a problem — must find a suitable partner in stabilizing Mosul and the region after pushing Daesh out of Mosul. But US and EU have envisioned some form of UN mission, with various Arab countries, and — needless to say — a permanent internationalizing of the region, and a permanent position in decision-making of the old European colonial countries. It is almost funny. So, US does not want Turkey, and has been pressuring Iraq to fend off Turkey. Having raised a lots of noise, Baghdad suddenly turned to US and said — you decide. US does not really want to make any more enemies of Turkey — so, it had to agree. But now, US is trying to keep Turkey out — but it will be near impossible.
It is not a surprise that ISIS kicked Kurds in Kirkuk. Kurds have been pain in the side — being friendly with Ankara and Baghdad. That is a blasphemy! There was going to be a Kurdish region, again with US/EU/UN alphabet soup. So, Kurds are learning hard way — mysterious are the ways of ISIS! Turkey pretty much said it today — the future of the region is to establish a stable regional security architecture. Hint, it does not involve countries out of the area. As US does not have enough boots on the ground, and the majority will be Iraqi army, Turkey trained Iraqis and Kurds. That exceeds about 6,000 US troops by a lot — and who controls the ground in the end wins.
But there will be one more reason that Turkey will play the key role in stabilizing the area. It will be the most suitable of all candidates to be accepted happily by population. There are problems with Kurds, with Shia, and with Americans. But Turkey can be more effective in keeping the peace and stability in the long run.
In spite of noisy protest over Aleppo by Western countries, Turkey is not perturbed. Today, clearly having a great sense of humor, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister said that US is encouraging Euphrates Shield to turn attention to Raqqa. Well, did not Hillary say she wanted to go there, as soon as she is triumphant in Mosul? Now, if Turkey takes Raqqa region, there is no need for Hillary to go there, and even less to plan any trips to Aleppo, or no fly zones.
But the message from Hillary was — we will arm Kurds. Turkey of course send a protest note to US ambassador. And called Hillary — Political Apprentice!
Turkey sent a message to Kurds — attacking them in their own region. Why? Kurds are trying to prevent Turkey to take town Al-Bab. The town is the key to advancing to Raqqa. So, it will be really very interesting to see if Kurds are really going all the way out to please US — to prevent Turkey liberating Raqqa, and thus, creating a fact on the ground — and again, coming up with a security architecture for Syria that will avoid foreign powers or the need for UN to set up shop there. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Russia — do seem to be working on the regional security. In todays announcement, the objective is called a stable peace environment.
For the time being, no plans are made clear, and thinking too far down the line is dangerous to every one. Nobody expected that in Kirkuk. In Mosul, horrible loss of life — hundreds of families slaughtered by ISIS, and 550 families taken hostage. Aleppo will be child’s play compared to the city with over one million inhabitants.
They are going to take it and there is nothing we will do about it. Attack our NATO ally? I think we will pretend it doesn’t matter or was the plan all along.
I think Turkey would like some oil resources.
Couple days later and the Turks have already used their artillery in the assault, unasked. Contrary to the article, the Turks are training a (Turk-controlled) Sunni militia, not the Kurds. Dr. Smooth Strangelove Ash Carter is over there right now in Erbil, trying to appease the Turks and shush the Iraqis. Jackasses.