Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced today that he will not be giving the mandate for forming a government, already returned by his own ruling AKP, to the second-place CHP, and will rather be moving quickly toward fresh elections.
A surge in support ahead of the June election for the pro-Kurdish HDP cost the AKP its absolute majority, and they were unable to convince either of the two other parties to join them in a coalition government, or to allow them to run as a minority government.
Though Erdogan is believed to be betting on fresh votes costing the HDP greatly, what with the new war against the Kurdish PKK, the first polls coming out don’t appear to back that up, and suggest that the HDP, which got 13% in the vote, is up to 14%.
Though some still believe that PKK violence will erode support for the HDP by the time a new vote is held, it remains to be seen if it will hurt them or the AKP, which launched the new war against the PKK in the first place, more. Even if the war fuels nationalist sentiment, the AKP may have to contend with the overtly racist MHP on the nationalist vote, meaning they might not have an easy route to a majority in the next election either.
Erdogan used and abused Turkish, including Kurdish people to get where he is now. Now that everyone understand his politics he brings war upon people that wants nothing but peace being as part of turkey and doing their best for peace in the region, by Erdogan abusing his power, by not rejecting the European neo fascism, the Saudis the USG idea in destroying Syria he deserves to be nothing but an puppet.
The problem is that Erdogan counts the votes, and US-backed NGOs will confirm fraudulent elections as fair.
Turkish elections have been fair. That is after all how Erdogan managed to lose the last one.
Why should US-backed NGOs be active in turkish elections? That country is not under US management.
Erdogan is gambling. He is a skilled gambler who has inside knowledge of the odds. That does not make his gamble a sure thing.
He is gambling that open war with the Kurds will undercut the Kurds politically.
It is rational, but there are reasons and ways it might not work out.
If it doesn't, Erdogan is toast politically. He is staking it all on this. An out of control war against a group with power in his own Parliament to stop him forming a government would be a disaster even he could not survive.
How long will the military stand on the side lines? They are certainly not averse to killing their own citizens.
All the refugees from Syria and Iraq and elsewhere must be adding fuel to the fires of unrest. I expect Erdogan will demonize them to build his support. More repression of refugees is probably on order.
It is deeply depressing to consider the prospect of yet another society in that part of the world being destroyed by civil war. I suppose another civil war on Russia's borders would suit Uncle Sam just fine.
I hope the PKK will resist the urge to retaliate in the run up to the election. There's been more than enough suffering already.