The Monday US drone strike which killed a 12-year-old, who officials initially labeled an “al-Qaeda militant,” seems to be adding to the increasingly disastrous US war and sectarian unrest that are giving al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) a recruitment boost.
The Shi’ite Houthi rebels were already giving AQAP a recruitment boost by advancing along the coast, convincing the Sunni tribes in the region that AQAP is the primary faction resisting their advance.
The US drone strikes were themselves a long-standing source of tension among Sunni tribes, which have often been targeted. They’ve complained the “militants” killed were civilians time and again, but the rights groups confirming a 12-year-old was among Monday’s victims seems to have added to this anger, and again, put AQAP in a positive light for the tribes as the only group fighting against them,
Exactly how big AQAP can get remains to be seen, but the group has had occasional control over portions of two provinces in southern Yemen, and seems to remain mostly interested in that territory, as opposed to expanding outside of the Sunni tribal portions of the nation.
why not put the mainstream us media to work claiming the 12 year old kid was actually a 47 year old midget and a mastermind of aqap
This is a desperate effort to reanimate Al-Qaeda. Yemeni "branch" is Saudi outfit, that did nothing else but sabotage any efforts to settle Yemeni crisis outside of Saudi/US control. Well, it is not under control. The north is going back to the way it was before military coup ousted the last Imam, and attempted to create a western-style central government in Sana'a and reduce the role of confederate arrangement that lasted for hundreds of years. Now, Shia north is shaping up — and the "protests" in Sana'a are typical NGO activist paid by foreign governments — and attracting urban confused youth.
The south is shaping up to be run by the secessionists. North and South have an understanding. The way it is shaping up — back to two countries over time. Being typical tribal societies, they do not care where precisely is the boundary, and they can stay formally in one country but being run as two or more — and be satisfied. But — what to do with the "drone program", as media puts it? It sounds like some sort of "bread program", something that needs to stay operational. But the only way will be to make Al-Qaeda RELEVANT again. They tried — God did they. Al-Qaeda In Yemen was raising its hand high and hard — to claim the responsibility for Paris attack. It did not get traction, as it made no sense. But — they tried to get US "antiterrorist" operation going again, and saving their "mission". With a few more drone strikes — and hoping that the "mission" will rejuvenate, I would not bet on that. If anything — those tribes will join southern secessionists, as Al-Qaeda acts like a lightening rod they do not want to be close to. It is not like those tribes are helpless and have nobody to ally with. Southern secessionism is well funded by many Saudi rich families — as that was the country of their origin. Already, cities like Al Mukalla are no longer sleepy date-trading outposts. They have been redeveloped and modernized. So, why on earth would any Sunni tribe want to be with fake Al-Qaeda, when it has better, more lucrative options. If the strikes are aimed at southern de facto independence, all that will do is sour the relationship of their leaders with US. Not a good plan — it will be better to let them take care of problems. And finally, defund the defunct Saudi outfit in Yemen. Saudi paranoia over Shia north is getting silly. They lived with such Yemen before with no problems. But now, any time any Shia population gets their political rights — Saudi Arabia on the clue from Israel — sees Iranian under every Yemeni bed.