Three ceasefires up and three ceasefires down in Nagorno-Karabakh, the war is looking not only poised to continue, but to expand across the entire region, as major powers are positioning themselves as committed to one side or the other.
Over the weekend, the Russian Federation has committed to commit “all necessary assistance” to Armenia if the conflict looks to expand outside Nagorno-Karabakh. That indeed looks very likely, with Azerbaijan already claiming their cities have been hit outside of the enclave.
Russia isn’t the only exterior power likely to get involved, as Turkey has been praising Azerbaijan’s efforts to “liberate the occupied Karabakh” and seems quite eager to jump in against Armenia.
While NATO has been encouraging peace, Turkey seems to be egging Azerbaijan on, and Russia’s comments seem likely to encourage Armenia to keep supporting the secessionist Nagorno-Karabakh.
What could go wrong?
A lot could go wrong for Azerbaijan and Turkey for sure.
They have zero chance of stopping Russia.
Absolutely SHAMELESS twisting of truth.
This is NOT what Putin said. He reiterated the obligation under CSTO to defend Armenia IF Armenian territory is attached. The author SHOULD know the difference.
Armenia is currently trying to defend the territory it took from Azerbaijan in war ending in 1994. The territory TWICE the size of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Mostly, the land taken is between NK and Armenia, as well as a large swath in the south, between NK and Iranian border. UN resolution is demanding these lands be returned.
Putin said that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have their own truths — and it is time to get together and forge lasting solution.
Putin was open — he would mind the solution where Azerbaijan gets its occupied territories back in accordance to UN resolution, but with a special status for NK, and a corridor linking it to Armenia.
I suspect that the REAL NEGOTIATIONS will revolve around the status of NK. Since the region was always Armenian populated, Azerbaijan will just try to get best negotiated BENEFIT for giving up NK. What it does not want is — trading NK territory to get back its own territory lost in 1994.
Putin is supporting Azerbaijan right to its territory — and negotiations in he status of NK.
There could be two solutions. One where NK and the corridor have a special autonomy within Azerbaijan. That would settle the problem.
But it would be very hard for NK population not to be part of Armenia.
Then there is another solution.
NK, and the corridor to become Armenian sovereign territory, but for a compensation — a corridor given to Azerbaijan along Iranian border in order to connect Azerbaijan exclave to Azerbaijan territory. But it will be hard for Armenia, used for three decades to hold 25% of Azerbaijan under its control — to give it back, just to get NK under its jurisdiction. But this is what Armenia had de facto — although not de jure.
Giving up Iranian border may be also high price to pay to get a settlement. But it is something Iran would support, giving the increased closeness between Armenia and US. Iran would prefer not to have exposure to mischief on its border.
Putin has not supported anything different than Turkey. Return of Azerbaijan land and status for NK.
The only question is — what kind of status.
And how much is Armenia prepared to give.
There was no attack on Armenia from Azerbaijan. None. But Armenia is consistently hitting Azerbaijan proper, outside of contested territory. Hoping to provoke Azerbaijan to retaliate. It is not likely to happen. Will
Armenia go for false flag incident?
As it is losing badly — this should be expected. Russia will not go for it — so the only value is domestic agitation.
Another of Gorbachev’s mistakes, causing ill will among neighbours.
How did he do that?
cmn putin just said if it goes outside nk so unless the azeri leader is a retard they wont hit armenia outside nk even if armenia shells azerbaijan indiscriminately to bring the conflict alongside its own territory.
I take the key language to be “if the conflict looks to expand outside Nagorno-Karabakh.”
I don’t think they mean just lobbing some shells into the sanctuaries of each side next door to the ground fighting. I take this to be a warning not to expand the war into an actual invasion of either side’s home countries.
Remember that is exactly what DID happen in some other recent conflicts, as with Georgia for example.
Supporting Artsakh is defending against a second Armenian Genocide.