The February 29 Doha Agreement between the US and Taliban was meant to end the war in Afghanistan, and yet might. The deal had a number of provisions, including for the US and Taliban to not fight one another during the process.
It’s not surprising, then, that the Taliban is angry at a recent surge of US airstrikes, mostly in Helmand Province, where the Taliban was fighting the Afghan government, or airstrikes elsewhere in Afghanistan.
This is a recurring issue with the deal, as the Taliban and Afghan government have yet to reach a peace deal, and the US is using supporting the government as an excuse for strikes. Again today, spokesmen denied that they were violating the Doha Agreement with the airstrikes.
Meanwhile, the Taliban has warned of retaliation if the US attacks continue. The only apparent violence from the group came in Ghor Province, where a vehicle bombing killed 15, wounded 150, and damaged several government offices.
US strikes will probably continue to decline despite them wanting to keep doing this to push an intra-Afghan truce, because US troop cuts are continuing and there just aren’t that many to participate in attacks anymore.
The Taliban had better not get to cockey about the American withdrawal sticking.
Or, maybe they aren’t expecting the U.S. to leave and are reinforcing turf ahead of a Biden surge and renewal of the war.
After all, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg put his foot down – America leaves Afghanistan when Europe thinks the time is right, not President Trump..
It’s with little surprise the US would violate a peace deal, so this story isn’t Taliban propaganda. I’m more surprised the convening sides allowed an exchange of prisoners.
The US can’t very well murder prisoners without a global outrage, so a field reengagement makes it legitimate while continuing the war and the defense industry gravy train.
The Taliban can double down, but that seems to be their sole alternative.
The US has a government-compliant media, not what might nowadays pass for renegade journalism (honest, aggressive) that we had covering the Vietnam War. The nightly reported body counts along with relatively peaceful protest must have driven the point home to Nixon, and thus, US participation ended.
It’s not lost on those alive during that era that the war “ended” after about 13 years. The Afghanistan War is nearly 20 years old.
I doubt the major US MSM outlets are reporting from Kabul and environs. If so, and a major American or NATO loss of life occurred, it might occur as a nightly news blip. Americans seem to be political and Apple phone obsessed, and their history acumen is spotty. The internet’s advent has enhanced access to non-MSM players and I regard it as a positive, despite the censorship that’s also widespread.
The best advice one could offer the Taliban is to develop a PR department in publicizing your victories and seek out a new relationship with Iran. Few would suggest displaying pictures or video of decapitated American servicemen. In the convoluted and triggered minds of Americans, that may elicit more negatives, but then what’s left to lose. American public opinion is ineffective on policy change.
The Americans and NATO have no intention of leaving. To the Taliban, I say, may your spiritual leader show you the way.
“This is a recurring issue with the deal”
This is a recurring issue in all US deals in recent years.
It was a recurring issue in all deals with Israel long before, which really were the same group of Americans enabling the same behavior.
This group cheats. They lie. They take the benefits of a deal, then cheat on it. Then they demand more, and if they get it they’ll cheat on that too.
It is a pattern the whole world sees, that remains unspeakable only in the US as it does it and enables it, again and again.
The US and Afghan governments will figure out how to tolerate the Taliban and vise versa. Money always wins. Moving Turkmenistan oil to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, plus resulting trade routes, will be too lucrative for the banks, energy companies and transit partners to allow for more delays.
“(The TAPI oil) pipeline… is expected to supply about 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year from Turkmenistan’s giant Galkynysh gas field… Five bcm… will be absorbed by Afghanistan, while Pakistan and India will receive 14 bcm each.[…]
(C)onstruction of the Afghan section would begin in early 2021[…] Afghanistan is expected to rake in more than $400 million annually in transit duties alone”. Turkmenistan, India and Pakistan have completed all or most of their own construction components, Afghanistan is last piece.
https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/tapi-gas-pipeline-gets-boost-after-turkmen-afghan-officials-ink-deal-2020-9-4-37/
And western companies are ready to get at the “60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium” plus gemstones, untapped in Afghanistan. Estimated value “between $1-3 trillion.”
https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/afghanistans-mineral-resources-are-a-lost-opportunity-and-a-threat/
The project allows the ability to transit Central Asian resources to the Indian Ocean without traveling through Russia, Iran or Turkey via trade corridors that will open in the Khyber Pass. Plus the added benefit of moving Turkmenistan further away from Russia’s influence.
There is too much money at stake for the US to continue to break peace deals.