The ceasefire in Syria’s Idlib Province began Friday, and is still holding into the evening, with locals describing their pessimism about this latest of deals between Russia and Turkey, but ultimately there has been no violence since the official beginning.
The decision to reach a ceasefire deal but not start it immediately, however, meant late Thursday was basically a freebie for Turkey’s military, as they rushed to carry out attacks before the ceasefire went into effect. Turkey said they killed 21 in the attack.
Turkey followed this up with threats for further attacks to come if Syria violated anything. So far, there is no indication that Syria is violating anything, and indeed the terms of the ceasefire generally favor Syria, allowing them to keep the highway, and southern Idlib.
Turkey, on the other hand, is seen as backing down from Erdogan’s position, which was to start a war to keep Syria from keeping any of Idlib. They had to make a deal to avoid a fight with Russia, but in doing so, they’re also forced to admit they can’t impose their will in Idlib.
It’s incredible how MSN and most other media manage to cover this. “Ankara will use self-defence rights if its forces or bases in the region come under attack.” Turkish forces have invaded a country and now say they have to defend themselves. Yet Syria is acting OFFENSIVELY by moving their forces within Syria against islamic extremists. It must be tricky to construct news that sounds somewhat impartial while propagandizing for terrorists.
They got practice. Helps to lack a soul, or a brain.
That would apply more to the reading audience that buys that story without questioning.
Unfortunately, the war machine’s propagandists, are well clever enough for being soulless.
Tense calm will turned into the tense fighting soon…! Erdogan has till March 15th to evacuate all of its terrorists (mainly Al Nusra) from north and south of Highway 4 to the distance of 6 km on each direction….I doubt he can do that because Al Nusra was not in the March 5th meeting and it is not obligated to comply….! Expect Syrian forces attacking the terrorists on March 16th…! All the terrorists that remain to the south of highway 4 will be either killed or forced to flee to the north where Turkey protection could still exist….!
Turkey’s S-400s come online in April.
If Syria intends to keep fighting, they will need a plan, because they’ve already lost significant air resources without facing S-400s.
A lot of the U.S.-Turkish tussle over whether or not Turkey should get S-400s, may have been mostly a ruse to encourage Russia to deliver them quickly.
Now, its Russia that faces S-400s in Syria.
Turkey also has few incentives to break the ceasefire. Although Turkey could eventually win a war in Syria, being kicked out of the Russian economy would be devastating. Not putting up a good show in Syria invites American sanctions and being crushed by debt weighted in U.S. dollars.
Turkey’s S-400s won’t be fully operational until April, but what really holds Turkey back is dependence on the Russian as well as U.S. economies. Choosing one or the other isn’t really an option either.
Offending Russia too greatly probably also offends China. Jumping into the arms of the U.S. and EU, is obviously not good for Erdogan’s personal as well as Turkey’s long-term geopolitical survival.
Turkey is indeed at the crossroads of the geopolitical world, unable to choose any direction but all of them.
On the bright side, the only solutions that work for such a predicament are the peaceful political resolutions.