Syrian ground troops are moving north to confront invading Turkish forces per a deal that was reached by the Kurdish SDF and the Assad government, in talks brokered by Russia and held on a Russian air base.
The deal sees the Kurds unilaterally handing over two important cities, Kobane and Manbij, both in the Aleppo Province, to the central government to rule. This means Turkey’s invasion of those cities would be a direct invasion of Syrian cities under government control. Those two cities are also where Syria’s Army is heading first. This would make Turkey attacking those cities more controversial, and also raises the possibility of Russia intervening on the government’s behalf.
Kobane is a Kurdish-dominated city on the immediate border with Turkey. It was repeatedly contested by ISIS during the war, and would likely be an early target as Turkey’s troops fan out in the 30 km safe zone. Manbij, an Arab-majority city seized from ISIS in a US-backed offensive, is about 30 km from the border, but would clearly be a prize Turkey’s Arab rebel allies would covet.
While the terms of an overall deal are not publicly known, superficially the plan seems to be for Syria’s military to assume defense of the western-most territory of what Turkey is attacking, freeing up more Kurdish fighters to resist the offensives further to the east.
Syria had initially expressed an aversion to talking with the Kurdish SDF at all, calling them separatists and “agents of Washington” because of their long-time ties with the US. It’s not clear that’s entirely warranted, as the Kurdish political leadership had long envisioned a post-war solution with semi-autonomy within a federalized Syria. Russia, who had advocated a federal system post-war, clearly wanted to get these two sides together.
The Syrian government never agreed to Kurdish autonomy, and it is speculated that this deal might spell at least a partial end to that. In the near-term, however, both sides are more worried about slowing a Turkish invasion than about running day-to-day operations across eastern Syria.
Suck it Erdogan! The Axis of Resistance strikes back.
When faced with the choice of either fighting with a NATO member or throwing the Kurds under the bus (again), who’s gonna choose option 1? Really?
I have always maintained that Kurds should be given some automony within a Syrian federation. Assad was against it, but it looks as if Russia has convinced the Syrian government that under the circumstances this will be the best solution. Turkey should take heed of this and stop his incursion into Syrian territory. Hopefully Putin and Merkel will talk some sense into Erdogan.
Assad was never against autonomy. This whole Turkish invasion is a ploy to bring the Kurds to the table and drop this fantasy of an independent Kurdistan. Putin is running the whole show.
Quote from the above post: “The Syrian government never agreed to Kurdish autonomy” ……………..
Maybe a semi-autonomous Kurdish region is better than all the unsuccessful killing in pursuit of independent Kurdistan. If you disagree, you lost, because without US troops there can be no Kurdistan. Sorry if this upsets. Syria is Syria, not for Kurds to set up Rothschild banks and Exxon-Mobil. How dare the Kurds speak of “ploys”, the height of irony.
Without US troops? Excuse me. We couldn’t win in Afghanistan nor Syria, not to mention anywhere else except Libya where we just destroyed the country and left it in chaos and anarchy by Shilliary lying to the UN and violating their No-Fly authorization. Why would that suddenly change? I mean. We should fight Turkey and Syria, which includes Russia and Iran, so to give the Kurds their own state? We might in a pipe dream win at what cost?
Not popular to say but Putin is the best, most outstanding statesman in this world. Heaven forbid he and Lavrov advocate a republican form of government. Stolen ideas from our forefathers. How dare they? !!!!
The point of the guardian story was “it seems that the fate of the Kurdish people [is to be abandoned]”…because this deal with the Kurds turning over territory to Syria’s govt would be extended to include all of N Syria without an autonomy deal in place. They aren’t saying it’s certain, but that’s the author’s belief.
The land the Kurds occupy and have been in control of that Turkey wants to control is part of Syria by international law. Russia’s idea of a federation is the same our founding fathers had with the states being sovereign but part of the federal gov. The US has to get out of the way for peace to return in the ME. We should be ashamed that Putin represents our values better than we do.
“withering criticism” “as northern Syria descends into mayhem” “chaos” “abandoning Kurdish allies” “Trump had registered the criticism emerging from all corners.”
That’s just the latest hype from CNN. Supposedly, NO ONE opposes sanctioning Turkey. N Syria was a delightful, orderly place until last week. Alliances are forever, regardless of the current behavior of allies or how stupid the alliance was to begin with. Indeed the core problem is empire, that all US lawmakers seem to feel entitled to impose war or economic pain anywhere in the world. And that mainstream commentators do best when they are shaming those lawmakers into ever greater aggression.
More precisely, peace is not really the priority… this country only wants peace as long as everyone does as we command.
It is encouraging to see Syria defending against this invasion. Most people understand that Turkey is using the same mercenaries that Clinton funded in her Regime Change war. Once established Al Qaeda will have a staging area on the Syria northern border with supply routes readily available through Turkey.
Clinton funded? Was this a rogue operation run by our former Secretary of State? Don’t you think Obama deserves some (a lot) of the blame?
Obama deserves all of the blame. He enabled the witch.
Truth speaks. Why do so many not get it? I mean Shilliary was very public about arming local factions to do what ever dirty work. Obama graciously stood on stage and explained black is actually white.
Way to go Syria! 🙂
However, I would like to see President Assad work out some type of semi-autonomous between the Syrian government and the Kurds. To me this would benefit both parties; the Kurds will finally get an area of their own formally but still owe allegiance to the Syrian state. At the same time Kurdish soldiers could be incorporated into the Syrian army under their own regiments and be stationed in their home territory to defend it against incursions along the border.
Once again, the Russians were instrumental in bringing this about. The Syrians are headed for control of their oil-producing regions which are the key to rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure and economy.
The Zionists are sitting, helpless and ineffective, the most dangerous place for them to be as they’re liable to do anything to continue their assault on what they see as Greater Israel. Look for some horrible false-flag event that will draw the US back into it and turn the ME into a wasteland once again.
Not so fast. Both YPG and US Neoconland, along with their minions in media, Congress, and all nooks and crannies of Administration — will not stop undermining the process.
Thus, YPG with Russia’s mediation will shed only those townships that would create barriers to Turkey’s progress in defeating YPG. Syria — as well as Russia and Turkey know very well that YPG would just go on claiming it rights to represent Kurds, and force US to support them in some form, and in reduced location.
Turkey has already flushed out American soldiers that were not supposed to be there. So, one thousand — not 50.
The objective for Syria is to have as much territory freed up from YPG and US as possible. Turkey can do heavy lifting in border region — first population is supportive, second — YPG will have to withdraw from immediate area.
But YPG has an ace in Deir Azzor and important areas in Euphrates valley. Why? Turkey has no excuse to go there, and if Syrian Army enters, US would have no problem bombing them to “protect” Kurds. So, the ONLY way Damascus and Russia can get them to VOLUNTARILY TURN THISE AREAS OVER is —threaten them in Kobane. Syria and Russia can offer other Kurdish parties a great deal. While Turkey can threaten invasion to get rid of YPG. If successful, YPG cannot survive far out from its home base —,especially if not recognized by population.
“also raises the possibility of Russia intervening on the government’s behalf.”
Presumably this deal is intended to forestall that possibility as no one – hopefully – wants a direct confrontation between Russia and Turkey.
The question remains: what happens if Erdogan decides to push it anyway and attack any Syrian forces in or around those two cities in an attempt to take them?
It would have been nice to have Turkey in on this deal, but it seems that only Syria, the YPG and Russia are involved. This leaves out the most significant party that caused the need for a deal in the first place.
Erdogan to push? What makes anyone think that Turkey is operating in a vacuum? Turkey has calked US bluff and forced the issue of both Kurdish separatism and US rationale for staying in support of it.
It was the only way to get Us dislodged.
If YPG can see the light of day — and turn over towns and villages to Syrian Army unconditionally— so much better for Turkey. It saves the money and trouble of occupation until elections.
But YPG will be gone, not getting protection from Syria. Kurds are better off under Syrian Army and Syrian stare, then under occupying force,
It is rather clear — Kurds, want to ditch YPG and return under Syrian sovereignty or stay under Turkish occupation until elections. The border towns must go under Turkey — to eradicate years of ethnic cleansing and return their Arab population. Turkey, unlike Syrian government need not be gentle. The scale of population reengineering done by Kurds under US protection will take time, investments and reconstruction to normalize.
Kobane is the key to YPG political survival — if ousted there, its presence throughout the region will be untenable.
The extent of NATO fury tells you all you need to know. Turkey has pushed US out of the way — to allow Syria to reclaim its territory. And fir Turkey to work on refugee return and not allow wars and invasions make population flight permanent.
There is NO DEAL. YPG left , Syrian Army in charge of Manbij. No reverse cleansing will take place.
This is a deal for YPG — either Turkey will kick you out, and then the militia will engage in reverse ethnic cleansing — or turn over the city to Syrian Army. YPG without US air force — is nothing.
Without Turkey, the US doesn’t have an airforce as Turkey provides the air bases/fields our planes fly out of.
US is using Iraq as well as Al-Tanf for air operations. Since all air operations in Syria were small — usually providing air support to Kurds, US does not need large scale capability. If such is required, the largest Air Force base in the Middle East is in Qatar.
But all of them come with risk and cost. Iraq will sooner or later have to deal with foreign military presence. This was part of massive protests recently.
Qatar is a complicated customer. It hosts Turkish military base and Iran is largest supplier of consumer goods. So for Americans and their families living in Doha, this means buying Iranian goods in shops. Qatar is being very nice to US base, I am am sure US pays pretty penny for it.
Al-Tanf is not sustainable, as Syrian population there will want to rejoin Syrian territory, and US has no client there.
Turkey always limited use of base — such as against Iraq.