Backed by artillery fire and airstrikes launched in spite of the US trying to deny them access to the airspace, Turkish forces invaded northeastern Syria on Wednesday. Ground forces crossed the border at four different sites, and began fighting with Kurdish forces.
Reports are that early engagements are near Ras al-Ayn,while Turkish airstrikes continued hitting sites across northern Syria. Turkey reported 181 sites hit in the area so far, including a prison that was holding ISIS detainees. What happened to the detainees, whether killed or escaped, is uncertain.
What is certain, at least according to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is that the US didn’t give Turkey a “green light” for the invasion. The US did agree to move a few dozen troops away from the border so as to not get in the way. But President Trump also threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy over the matter.
Turkey has been threatening to invade Kurdish territory in Syria for years now, and while the US made protracted moves to try to prevent this, or at least inconvenience Turkey, it was always clear that once it happened, the US was prepared to back off in short order.
The Kurdish YPG has threatened all out war in the event of a Turkish invasion, which virtually goes without saying since the whole point of the invasion is a war on the Kurds. The Kurdish forces are now trying to muster to keep Turkey’s push limited to the immediate area around the border.
How far this war will go remains to be seen. Turkey has suggested the goal is taking the “safe zone,” which is a band immediately on the border, but threats to invade have often included much deeper incursions into Syrian Kurdistan, and fighting close to the border is likely to add to calls to go further.
How come nobody bitches about Turks in North WEST Syria?!
The Russians put a stop to that incursion because they are nobody’s bitch. I’m guessing that they and the Syrian Army will eventually take back the oil-rich northeast of Syria as well.
The Kurds are in Moscow as we speak. Erdogan will wish he never crossed that border. The YPG are soft, but their friends in the PKK will be a force to be reckoned with.
It is interesting though that Russia is taking a rather neutral position stating this is not their problem. China seems MIA but they are focused on events in Hong Kong… Iran has been extremely vocal against this incursion by the Turks. And Turkey seems to want the good old days of the Caliphate (political in nature this time around) with Erdogan as the new Sultan. The Kurds should join up with Assad (as Lord Baldric suggests in his post below). It seems to me, on the surface, at least, everyone is giving Turkey a free pass to do what they will, thus, possibly implying: no one wants to deal with the Kurdish problem…
Eventually the Kurds problem will become everyone else’s problem when they turn their safe zone into the new Idlib.
Hi Comrade Hermit:
The potential for the stuff to hit the fan is huge but with no likely winners. Aren’t we about due for a massive paradigm shift?… I keep waiting… What might we accomplish in this world if not for war?…
Sooner rather than later – God willing.
They did not stop it. Turkey is freeing up Syria in a way Damascus or Russia could not. And Kurds in Afrin are managed by their local government and YPG is gone. And are you hearing of problems? No. But I would not be shocked if some incident happens to stir things up,
Because nobody knows who in US is making decisions. And privatized CIA can cause a lots of mischief. So, pulling out of Syria seems to be a red line for someone.
Thank you for noticing that. Because Kurds in Afrin lost any significance to US design once Turkey eliminated ISIS from Jarabulus to Al-Bab and cut a corridor making it impossible for SDF with US help take that area and then YPG would have had a CONTIGUOUS area along Turkish border from
the East of Syria to the West border of Syria and Turkey, former Syrian province of Antioch. That would have sealed the fate of both Syria and Turkey. With Kurds on both sides of border — border is erased — just as it is now at the area of Turkish incursion. The last piece of uncontrolled border. The one where US protected YPG — and where YPG did many favors to the cause of regime change. Like selling ISIS oil across the border to brethren Kurds. Like people smuggling across the border to join Islamists or ISIS. Like using Turkish side of border as a conveyer belt of smuggling operations — from arms to food supplies — from the US/YPG held Kobane region, to Afrin region. And from there, Islamists in Homs, Aleppo, Idlib were supplied by Afrin Kurds.
So even though after Turkey cut off the chance of two Kurdish enclaves joining, Afrin was important — to Syria, Turkey and Russia,. It was important to seal off the border and stop smuggling.
Keep in mind that Turkey is taking. advantage of the situation to thoroughly secure THEIR side of border. Because Kurds enjoy support from the West and Israel Turkey never dealt with Kurdish areas systematically. Turkey would react only to shootings, attacks on military or police. But could never secure the border with Syria or Iraq.
Aftin YPG had established a de facto border with Syria — and the only way a Syrian could enter Afrin region is with YPG written permission. Syrians with property there were selling. Offers were made to YPG to turn over the Courthouse to Syrian government, turn over the control of the borders and join Syrian military force or disband.
Population wanted the deal — and put Syrian flag up at courthouse. But YPG refused, counting on “international community” to stop Turkey. Turkey told them — accept the deal, and no invasion. The rest is known. Kurds are really good at sentimental stuff. Days before Turkey entered the rumors were spread that Russia and Damascus are protecting Afrin, etc. The standard language Damascus always uses is — conciliatory to Kurds. No matter their backstabbing leaders, and decade of smuggling. But Damascus cannot turn the back on Kurdish people. Russia cannot get too partisan when it comes to any groups.
So, the dirty job myst be done by Turkey — especially as Turkey is trying to address a decades old problem.
Afrin was occupied in a very short time. I remember various prognoses — that Kurds will fight Turkey in mountains and Turkish army was going to be stuck for ever. Even very good Moon of Alabama made that mistake. Why was Turkey able to route YPG in no time? Because it was a small contingent and NOT having popular support. Once Turkey entered, no problems. Refugees from Aleppo and Idlib are going either home or government controlled Syria.
The case of North Syria is VERY different. The LAST hole in Turkey-Syria border will be plugged. And Kurds there committed ethnic cleansing with US knowledge — and it will be reversed. Kurds will moan and Western media will be “”horrified”.
I hope it dies not stop there. After securing Hassaka, Turkey should — unless provoked — go around Kobane, and kuck Kurds frkm Manbij. And after that, move to Raqqa, all the way down Euphrates to Deir Azzor. By that time there should be no Kurdish outposts there — and Turkey can walk in. Why would Kurds be there, they do not live there, a minority of less then 1%. US myst cede controls of Iraqi border and get out of Al-Tanf at their leisure. With that area being doubly cleansed — first ISIS then Kurds — the refugee resettlement plan will have a chance.
Anybody heard Trump’s speech on Kurds and why US must not get involved in such conflicts. No national interest.
But now the Neocon International is pulling al its leverage — in Europe and US. Everyone with some dirt to hide will get a phone call.
But the truth is — US cannot go to war with Turkey. It can — at a great risk of having to fight Russia. How many people understand the importance of Turkey to Russia? And how many people understand the importance of solving the foreign support for Kurdish secessionism? Russia must be guardkng Turkey’s back here.
And what is EU to do? Turkey is not a member— EU did not want it. Will NATO kick out Turkey? No, they sant to wait for another day to topple Erdogan, a cat with thousand lives.
Turkey is going to spend a bilion dollars repatriating Syrians who have overrun Turkey. The Kurds don’t have to fight, they can vacate like sensible people. What sense does it make for them to kill and be killed except to try and suck in the SDF and liberal world powers to fight for this expanded “Kurdistan” over and over again? Northeast Syria is for all Syrians not just militant Kurds. If they think attacking the Turkish army will get them anywhere but deep in a grave, then that is their foolish choice.
Trump’s threats to Erdogan are just empty bluster. This has always been the plan. The US used the Kurds as seat warmers until they could get the Turks to set up a new Idlib in their “Safe Zone.”
The Kurds should have joined up with the actual Syrian government. Given the geography, the US has no chance to stop a determined Turkish attack even if they were hellbent on doing so.
They will. What they will get for it is limited autonomy within the greater Syrian state. Something they could have had all along but they fell for Yankee promises that were never going to be fulfilled.
Looks like America isn’t the only one who didn’t learn the lessons of Vietnam.
Al Jazeera is reporting the Syrians are refusing to deal with the YPG who they consider hopelessly compromised and infiltrated by their alliance with the USA. Russia is also saying it will not get involved and that the Kurds should have allied with the Syrian government when they had the chance. Five years ago I thought the YPG made a terrible mistake allying with the US.
I hope that isn’t the case.. Al Jazeera isn’t exactly un compromised iiself – particularly in regards to Syria.
Bottomline: this is a snake-pit mess.
Best to just sit it out.
I hate to say it, but it looks like Trump made the right decision. The Syrians and the Russians want no part of the YPG which had 50 US Special Forces embedded advisors and is completely compromised by its alliance with the US. I havea lot of sympathy with the Kurds. But the YPG made a terrible mistake when it allied with the US instead of the Syrians, the Russians and the Iranians. This is shaping up to be another tragedy for the Kurdish people. But sending thousands of US troops to face off against Turkey in Syria is just not an acceptable solution.
Originally I supported Tuls Gabbard’s position that the US should broker an alliance between the Syrians and the YPG to stop the Kurds. But Al Jazeera is reporting that the Syrians are rejecting talks with the Kurds and the Russians said that they will not not get involved.
Just as Poland was broken apart so now its Syria’s turn under the knife.