On September 14, Yemeni drones hit a pair of Saudi oil refineries. US and Saudi officials made a huge deal of this, and also claimed it was Iran’s doing, not Yemen’s Houthi movement’s, despite not showing any evidence. The expectation was this was going to be another chance to sucker President Trump into starting a war with Iran.
Three weeks and some largely meaningless sanctions later, the Saudis appear to be resigned to the fact that they just aren’t starting that war. Their fallback plan, it seems, is to now try to get some indirect negotiations going with Iran to reduce tensions, after spending years bringing those tensions to a boiling point.
Exactly how this process got going is unclear, put Iraqi and Pakistani officials say they were brought into the matter by the Saudi Crown Prince, and both are now intending to serve as mediators for the indirect talks.
Iran is on board for the effort, but Saudi officials, despite being reported to have started the whole thing, are now saying they’re considering the idea, but want to make sure everyone thinks Iraq and Pakistan are acting unilaterally, and they never approached anyone.
An official Saudi statement also insists that since the escalation was all the fault of Iran, they need to begin de-escalation, and that it’s not up to the Saudis to do that. This is in keeping with the Saudis’ stance of trying to provoke every action in the Middle East, but also keep up a narrative where they didn’t actually do anything, and just react to everything that happens.
And while the Saudis usually turn to the US to drive whatever policy they want, it is noteworthy that the US seems uninvolved in this peace process. It seems even the Saudis are well aware that the US isn’t a nation to try to use to make peace.
And suddenly— all hell breaks loose in Iraq! Pakistan is in turmoil, but it can always get worse.
It was also curious that two assassination attempts were foiled in the last week. One against the Grand Ayatollah and one against Gen Soleimani.
Pak’s problem has been the Punjabi stranglehold on the country.
Pakistan’s problems were caused by Evil Powers’ Agents inside & outside of the country, especially, previous Ruling Elite, which were and still are Criminal Corrupt Economic Terrorists & their cronies’ families who deposited poor people money in American & West Europe’s Banks through money laundering etc., etc., So, The Real Culprits are These Terrorist Countries which won’t allow poor countries to progress, what about African or Asian, Middle Eastern Countries want to Build War Industries, their sincere Rulers will be Eliminated by World Known Powerful Terrorists but no one will Dare say anything.
“And while the Saudis usually turn to the US to drive whatever policy they want, it is noteworthy that the US seems uninvolved in this peace process. It seems even the Saudis are well aware that the US isn’t a nation to try to use to make peace.”
Yes, EVEN the Saudi’s know. Our reputation is now at its lowest point.
Yes, but to be fair, it was never that great an actual reputation … Just a lot of great self regard. The native Americans know all about our promises of peace.
So true. Shame on me. You have to have one before it can be tarnished.
Really Great, to admit one’s mistake. Americans are nice people, except The Despicable President Trump Type Administrations, Media, Many Institutions etc., etc.,….
What Iran should say to Kafirstan Saudi Arabia: “DROP DEAD.”
Indirect is how these things actually get settled. Anything official can be disregarded as likely noise, posturing, or interference.
Not particularly relevant given that the Saudis would never attack Iran unless they had a guarantee from the US to prosecute the war on their behalf. They could get that from the neocons, however, so the risk is still there.
The question remains: What happens when the Houthis hit them again? Unless the Saudis stop the Yemen war, another Houthi attack will just result in another US claim that Iran was behind it. Then the Saudis have to decide whether to walk that claim back or double down on it. So will Trump.
If the Saudis have any brains at all, they will start negotiating seriously with the Houthis to end the Yemen war. Otherwise, any talks with Iran are basically irrelevant.
MBS talk is trying to minimizing the impact of the attack. The pics of the holes in the tanks looked very precise, so much so that some thought the drones were guided from within Saudi Arabia. Had the oil processing been targeted poisons from 19 chemical plants in the area would have been released and killed thousands in the area. Riyadh which is not too far away has a population of 6.5 million and would have been threatened. An attack on the chemical plants in the area would have been a national emergency and threatened MBS position as king. The US billion dollar missile defense system sold to the
Saudis also failed miserably.
As always the aggressor expects their victim to takes steps to reduce tensions. What they can’t get through direct war they hope to get through indirect violence. It’s not going to work.