The sheer number of Islamists, separatists, and former government forces
on the side of the Saudi-backed invasion of Yemen has long made this a
very complicated war. The growing probability of a civil war within the war threatens to make this even more difficult.
Fighting over the past three days has been raging in the southern
capital of Aden, where separatist forces took over the presidential
palace and are fighting against Saudi-backed forces. At least 25 have been killed over the past three days, including a number of civilians.
There is a split in that the separatists are backed by the UAE, and the
government forces are loyal to the Saudis. They both have very different
ideas of post-war Yemen, and substantial mistrust beyond that.
The fighting started after separatist fighters were killed by Islamists,
At the funeral, separatist leaders suggested the Islamists were loyal
to the government, and urged a rebellion. A crowd went straight from the
funerals to the palace, taking it over in short order. Since then,
fighting has continued around the palace, with pro-Saudi officials
accusing the separatists of sedition, on the grounds of them being
separatists.
As I said before the handover of withdrawing UAE territories to Saudis was going to be undermined by whatever brand of Islamists, separatists or Martians. Port of Aden being the key. The article is way BEHIND the events. UAE was supported by US with mercenaries ever since MBS took power. As a result, UAE forces took coast past Mocha to the Hoddidah region. UAE is vulnerable to US and UK
pressure, and bet on US ability to remove MBS by pressuring Allegiance Council. As previous Congressional “outrage” over Yemen war — while US is up to its gills in mercenary war on behalf of UAE — did not impress anyone, poor Kashoggi was a sacrificial lamb, sacrificed by rouge intelligence in order to topple NBS. Unfortunately , Turkish intelligence was so on the top of it, making me think that multiple intelligence operations were involved with Turkey executing the complete recording of the team and its deed. Saudi Arabia, armed with the intelligence arrested the team, and with the blessing of Allegiance Council — MBS reorganized all intelligence agencies. The infiltration of intelligence was dealt with, Back to UAE. The first trip MBS took after Kashoggi murder was UAE. The message given — Saudi Arabia is internally stable and no more undermining In Yemen. Since, UAE ceased to fight Saudi forces, and US was very angry. Suddenly, UAE was accused of some missile transfer to Libya, human rights violations in Yemen. Predictable. But turnover was not expected. Saudi control of the South would remove any value of Houthi Yemen, and the split of north and south could proceed with Saudi blessing.
As expected, SOMEBODY will show up the spoil the party. But the author is so behind times, alluding to the UAE working with US since end of 2017, until MBS visit to UAE. Niw, UAE was withdrawing, Saudi allied licals taking over.
Who is fighting in Aden. My bet is on separatists that are dumb enough to trust British whispering from its Oman base. Once upon a time, British did recognize Mahta and Hadramouth Sultanates, in order to control the trans-Indian ocean trade. But it cheated them by diverting all traffic to its colony of Aden. Ut is possible that some separatists are resenting the idea of Saudis taking over. Some of them took part in UAE takeover and feat retribution. But if they hope British would grant them former glory, it is highly questionable. But it is more likely that the fighters are the all-purpose terrorists for hire, collected from whatever former funding sources were, and labeled “secessionists”. The reason I suspect that these secessionists are not genuine, is the fact that Aden is the battleground, as real secessionists are further south. The problem us that our Mainstream Useless Media just copies whatever official spokespeople say, and they as a rule keep in changing labels depending on situation. So groups are rebels, or secessionist or Al-Qaeda or ISIS — depending on their usefulness at the moment.
So, the turnover will be complicated. The next thing you know, Trump will find ISIS there and invade Aden. Just kidding. But then…