On May 14, drones hit a pair of oil pipeline sites in Saudi Arabia. All
reports at the time were that the drones belonged to the Houthi movement
in Yemen, and the Houthis took credit for the strike.
US officials are suddenly drastically revising the story, and are now
accusing Iraqi militia movements of being behind the attack. In
particular, they are blaming Shi’ite militias who are aligned with Iran, which effectively means they are blaming Iran.
Which a month and a half after the fact doesn’t seem to be worth much.
And since officials were already accusing Iran of being behind the
Houthis’ attack, it doesn’t seem like they gain anything by changing the
story to a different group that still boils down to being an Iranian
proxy.
On top of it, this appears to be causing more problems for US relations
with Iraq, as Iraqi government officials are questioning where the US
came up with this assessment, and are seeing this as just another effort
to turn Iraq into a front for the US-Iran war.
The changing US assessment doesn’t seem to be coming with any actual
evidence, either, suggesting it is a sheer matter of convenience. In
mid-May, officials were keen to play up the Yemen War’s importance, and
now, they’re looking for excuses to spin Iraq as being on the side of
Iran as well.
“US officials are suddenly drastically revising the story, and are now accusing Iraqi militia movements of being behind the attack. In particular, they are blaming Shi’ite militias who are aligned with Iran, which effectively means they are blaming Iran.”
What’s the difference? We were blaming Iran when the Houthi’s took credit also.
When needed China will be blamed. Or Obama. Or Hillary. Or NATO. Decide by flipping a coin. Heads is Iran. Tails is China.
Putin never. Putin does not do such things.
Once again, the goal here is to blame any and all “Iranian proxies” – with the ultimate goal being to target the biggest Iranian proxy – Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The fact that it’s not just Israel that is talking up Hezbollah (“border tunnels” and the like), but US officials talking up “Iranian proxies”, shows that the intent is to ratchet up tensions with Iran, but use Iran as the excuse to attack Lebanon again.
I just read an article in an Israeli paper yesterday which said that Netanyahu wants to postpone the upcoming elections because of “concern” over an upcoming “security incident”. No one knows if he and his associates are referring to Hamas in Gaza, or Iran, or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, since we know the biggest impediment for Israel in an Iran war is Hezbollah, it is likely to be another attack on Lebanon. This benefits Israel in two ways: 1) the elections get postponed and Netanyahu remains in power; 2) since “there’s never been a better time”, as Ayelet Shaked said recently, referring to the benefits of having a virulent pro-Israel President like Trump in the US (and with an upcoming US election as well), Israel can likely count on heavy US support – perhaps with direct military support – in an Israeli attack on Hezbollah.
This will benefit Trump as well, as he can spin his anti-Iran foreign policy to generate support for assisting Israel in attacking “terrorists” in Lebanon which he can then transfer later against Iran, while at the same time getting a US election benefit by having “saved Israel from terrorists”, which will play well with his base and Republicans generally.
Taken all together, this indicates a war in Lebanon this summer, or at the latest next summer.