A flurry of last minute talks aimed at cobbling together any coalition at all, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu making a surprise bid to convince Avi Gabbay to bring Labor into the far-right coalition, have all failed.
Over the last hour before the midnight deadline, Netanyahu had seemingly given up, announcing his intention to proceed to new elections, and pushing quick votes to dissolve the parliament to avoid the admittedly remote possibility that someone else might have a chance at forming a coalition without him.
With the subsequent votes, parliament has dissolved, and for the first time ever, an Israeli election has ended without a government forming, and seven weeks after the April 2019 vote, Israel is facing a new campaign, a new September 17 election, and another bid at coalition-forming.
Though the polling unsurprisingly shows a next election being broadly similar to the last one, there could be a lot of new joint lists trying to increase their blocs. Already Kulanu and Likud have agreed on a joint list, and signs are that Yisrael Beiteinu and the New Right will follow suit, with Avigdor Lieberman in talks with Ayelet Shaked before the coalition talks had even failed.
Early polls suggest it will remain a heavily two-bloc race, between Likud-Kulanu and Blue and White, though the deciding votes are clearly going to be on the margins, with either needing to come up with a coalition of parties capable of coexisting to form a government.
Who will the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza vote for, in that fake democracy?
This time, it looks like a crisis in the system. Basically, cutting deals used to be a norm, this time, the lack of one delegate — controlled by Lieberman — has toppled Bibi. Why? It is clearly a revenge, but for what? He was not bought in spite of inducements. What is going on transcends typical political horsetrade. This one is personal, and deep seated, revealing problems. If one were to look at cartoons in US picturing Bibi as Trump-controlled, what is happening? Neocons not happy with all Trump’s gifts to Israel? Why? But neocons hate Lieberman, so he is not doing them a favor. His party got very few delegates — so why the obstinacy in preventing the deal? Is Likud in fact ripe for political challenge within? Is this a way to undercut any Trump’s influence in Israel, and undercut his broad-based peace plan to be partially unveiled in Bahrain? Lieberman may have been a usefull tool in toppling Trump ally, but he may prove to be a pivot to an entirely different politics, not neocon driven. All undercurrents and all doubts about present course — in motion, with no clear motive or alliances.
It’s never safe to assume that the stated motive is the actual motive, but in this case I think it might be.
Lieberman has set himself against the power of the ultra-Orthodox demographic, in particular their exemption from the otherwise universal military draft. That’s the sticking point he’s citing, and it may be his real motive (not the draft specifically, but an attempt to re-make Israeli politics such that the ultra-Orthodox don’t enjoy veto power over pretty much all legislation and policy).
Doesn’t it look like a mission impossible? Orthodox are at the very core of Israeli politics, and I am not sure Lieberman can make a dent in their power. His ultra hawkishness buys him a ticket into the halls of power, but then what?
You may be right. I am probably overestimating the influence of Orthodox, and may be the next elections will be a referendum on draft exceptions.
Lieberman may not get much more delegates, even with a coalition, but he may get his objective, reduce the influence of ultrareligious. Is he motivated by the grievances of Russian immigrants and their recognition? Many immigrants, especially from Russia were not accepted by the religion guardians, because of incompatible rules. Many immigrants were Jewish culturally, not ethnically, causing various problems. This is one of the causes of emigration of younger generations of immigrants. I am wondering if Lieberman political dice will resonate?
“Doesn’t it look like a mission impossible?”
Yes, it does — but multi-party parliamentary democracy gives him one advantage. That advantage is that Likud has to find coalition partners. He tried to use that to force the issue, and ended up causing the Knesset to dissolve and new elections to be scheduled rather than give in.
In the new elections, one of three things will happen:
1) Yisrael Beiteinu will gain seats, making itself even more necessary to a coalition led by Likud/Netanyahu, and increasing the chances that Lieberman will get his way.
2) Yisrael Beiteinu will lose seats, probably either to Likud or to other small right-wing parties that are willing to let the issue go and enter a coalition with Likud, in which case Lieberman is probably finished as a major political force in Israel.
3) The elections come out the same, or so close to the same as not to matter, as last time. No telling whether that results in Netanyahu giving in, Netanyahu giving up something else to some other potential partner, or Lieberman deciding that he’s at least made a statement and giving up on it for now in order to have Yisrael Beiteinu be in the ruling coalition.
Personally I think this is one of the better points of that style of democracy — small parties can push their issues to the front and sometimes bring the house down around them, forcing new elections, etc., over those issues. That encourages compromise and cooperation more so than the US system of single-member-district first-past-the-post elections and an executive and legislators with fixed terms.
Thank you for the details. Lieberman’s right of right wing politics is not comprehensible to me — but if he suceeds to raise issues of priviledged ultra-religious right wing, perhaps gambit will pay.
As for the political power-sharing, I am not sure how will it work with a country of this size. Every system has its pluses and minuses. What is destroying this system is the erosion of the boundaries between powers. Congress wants money making wars to satusfy their party funding needs, but do not wish to do the job of declaring wars. Because, they will have to identify funding as a part of the debate. It is easier to have the executive do it, and Cingress then in relative darkness, authorizes money. Political parties do not have to obey the law, as DNC deminstrated vividly by refusing FBI the right to investigate the charge of server hacking by fireign power benefiting opposing candidate. All said, right there. Congress insists if running foreign policy, and judiciary farms out investigation to special somebody, as nothing can be done without interference from other branches. And ad nauseum.
I do wish there is a way to break deadllocks. But that will work if we actually have a government and a orime minister. The problem is — presidents become a decoration. It might work if prime minister is limited to running congressional duties, passing laws and allocating funds, not micro managing president’s job in military and fireign policy. Third party rules need to be relaxed to alliw for challenging national parties in individual states. That would assure more diversity.
Either way, a steep hill ahead for unblocking the paralisis the two parties created.
Maybe the snake is beginning to eat its tail here…
Snake a good metaphor on many levels. So much venom on display. Now charges against Bibi will proceed. Yes, I feel the same. It is eaing its tail, and in all-consuming, personality-fueled rage, not caring for self-harm.
Let’s hope so… 🙂 Maybe the US CIA’s predictions for Israel will come to pass… that it won’t exist as we know it in 15 years from the date of the study (that would make Israel’s termination around 2030)…
Makes me wonder. What makes people or countries self-destruct. It is usually arrigance, inability to compromise when in strong position or just letting gambling instinct take over, with stakes ever higher. The bet, I fear, is on US willingness to continue goose stepping over Israel’s potential challengers, while occupation solidifies. As doubts occur, some would reexamine, others double down on set goals.
All that Trump gave was symbolic— neither Jerusalem nor Golan Heights are in his power to give. Jordan not on board on Jerusalem, and Jordan has internationally recognized role, not Trump. Threats against Jordan are double edge sword.
Zealotism — belief in one’s power to irder universe to its liking — never brought people any good.
Bianca… One the most horrendous aspects of the Israeli state is that it fits all of the criteria of hosting a sociopathic people. Sociopaths differ from Psychopaths in that the sociopath has a “moral code”. However, such a moral code is an aberrant one and does not in any way fit the accepted standards of normal ethics that is common around the world. This is why the world at large recoils at horror towards Israel’s ongoing crimes against Humanity. In the US this is supported (so far) by the US political class, which is also sociopathic in nature and just happens to have the same “interests” as those of the Israeli state (whatever they are is anyone’s guess). In both cases these two groups of people are eventually doomed because neither can change while the outside world can and eventually will. And the signs of such change are all around us; minor changes but changes nonetheless and growing. Sociopaths are created as a result of their group environments while Psychopaths tend to be born in such a way or are abused to such an extent that all forms of normal thinking are eradicated. A Sociopath cannot be cured as a result of their ongoing conditioning, which provides such defense mechanisms making it nearly impossible for a Sociopath to become a functioning member of society. Sociopaths are more dangerous than Psychopaths since they will do as their conditioning prescribes, while a Psychopath will always do what is best for his or her interests. Sociopaths are group oriented (ie: familial indoctrination) while Psychopaths are individualistic. As the world increasingly turns against Israel, the Israeli state will lash out using whatever means it is used to using. It cannot change such means since it has no other way to develop alternative techniques due to the conditioning of a majority of Israeli citizens and their leaders (not all Israeli citizens however). In the end, the Israeli state will continue to do what its basic moral code insists that it does… And this will eventually lead to its destruction as we know it… Unless of course, Earth runs out of time as a result of traumatic changes in its ecology…
Trump will have to do something outrageous in support of his buddy, Bibi. What will it be this time, invade Lebanon? Attack Iran? Who knows?
What I do know for sure is that a September 17 election is not “seven weeks after the April 2019 vote.” Bibi will be able to stay out of jail for another 3 months plus, enough time for all hell to break loose in the Middle East, the “messiah” returning, and those Christian Zionist Trump supporters to be raptured up to heaven. Of course, the rest of us will be cinder cakes, but at least we won’t have to fret about another four years of Trump. Always look on the bright side, I say.
Mr. Thomas Carlson, although it appears that Trump may be Bibi’s gambit, 2020 election will be very important for Trump to be re-elected. So the idea will not resonate well if Bibi is a lost cause. So says Mr. Stewart.
Time will tell, Mr. Stewart.