President Trump’s push to create an “Arab NATO” with the express purposes of fighting Iran seems to be crumbling, as Egypt has withdrawn from talks on the matter and will not be joining any endeavor, if one ever exists.
Egyptian officials openly doubted the seriousness of the proposal,
saying there is still no blueprint for it, and they are concerned it
will just increase tensions with Iran without accomplishing anything.
This is, if nothing else, an admission from Egypt that increased
tensions with Iran are not in and of themselves an accomplishment.
With some of the other involved nations say they’ll press Egypt to
return, it is doubtful this will work, even if plans ever emerge for the
group. In the meantime, it’s mostly just the GCC members and Jordan.
Other officials expressed doubts about how committed even the US is to
its own plan, and wondered if the next president after Trump would just
scrap the idea outright. That seems to be an open question, and the
White House even now seems not to be pushing the scheme as hard as they
once were.
Careful Egypt, making sense will get your 1.5 billion in aide cut off in a New York minute.
This was just after Al-Sisi and Trump meeting. The pressure on Egypt, that was supposed to be placed into the trappings of being honored to meet Trump — had apparently no success. There is still a school of thought that public around the globe looks favorably upon a leader that is honored by the West, or invited to the White House. Such optics are then used to persuade the public that their leader is unreasknable if he dies not agree with the host, or havens forbid, defy the supreme beings that can punish them.
In this backdrop, US asked Al-Sisi to drop the order for 30 Sukhoi fighters ordered from Russia. Surely, public can be convinced that Russia is bad, US good. In private, I am sure the burning issue of Libya was front and center.
US brought UN cobbled government into Tripoli and ousted previous disobedient governent. Parliament has moved into Tobruk, city close to Egypt border. General Hafter was in charge of their military. US was sure that General who was initially an anti-Gadhafi asset, would deliver east if the country to the West established beached in Tripoli. Tripoli only had militants centered in Misrata as protection. Who is arming/paying them? Really.
But Hafter with external help had different plans. With the help of Egypt, Russia and China (military, financially and food security), and tacit support from UAE and Saudis, he took iver Benghazi, and moved accross most of Libya using mostly political tools to get allegiance, stands now at the gates of Tripoli. France dabbled as his contact and “support”, and is niw touted as such — is pure wishfull thinking. France in UN SC was part of NATO trouka trying to condemn Hafter fir advancing in Tripoli.
By declaring his intent to take Tripoli he has finally made it clear to US and its supporters that he will not turn the power iver to US and its allies. He has time now to consolidate. He must now get his support base strong, and any allies supporting him conditionslly, will have to make up their minds. This is specifically true of France. Russia vetoed “one sided” resolution prefering to obligate both parties on ceasefire and political solution.
But in effect, Russis has legitimized Hafter and put him on the same level of legitimacy as US sponsored UN government.
To make US predicament even mire accute — guess who is also supporting UN government? Turkey and Qatar! The optics are on the surface simple — Turkey is miffed with Egypt over Moslem Brotherhood, and Qatar is its ally.
But these are primitivisms. Turkey and Egypt are not on unfrjendly terms. Russia is arming both. Both are having Russian nuclear power plants built. Both have learned lessons from grain shortages that plagued them whenever Western club wanted them punished (Australia, Canada), and have reoriented grain imports from Russia.
Thus, I have a ferling that in Egypt like in many other places optics have changed. It appears that Al-Sisi getting out of the debate club called Arab NATO, is resonating well at home. There are no condemnations at home for this move. There are not many Western NGO’s left in Egypt to urge Western ties.
Misrata fighters responded to defunct airport challenge. But it may end up just exposing their weaknesses. In the meantime, US and France are shopping for allies or disruptors. If not to be found in Libya — any neighbor interested in picking up chunks of Libya is highly wanted. Risky, as that would strenghten Hafter’s message and further undermine powerless Tripoli. Time will tell. It will be hard to punish Egypt. Its loans are mostly from Saudis and Saudis count on Evypt’s support in settling Yemen crisis. Saudis are cutting major commercial deals with Egypt in tourism and trade. Egypt is no longer vulnerable to internal divisions. Morsi’s premature jump out of anti-Iranian posture, hosting Ahmenjdejad and making fiery anti-US soeach in UN is now history. Saudis are no longer unconditional US tool, and Salafi islamists brought to heel following Al-Sisi’s
Bombing of Islamists kn Libya’s border in retaliation for the deadly attack on Coltic communities. The support he received from population was immense, and it created a sense of patriotism and unity against atfacks on Christians. Egypt’s Salafis got the message, and many actually abandoned ideas of religiously justified strife. This also took liwers away from some Wahhabi sponsored extremism.
This reminds me of how the Nazis set up SS divisions in the occupied lands, like Stepan Bandera’s Nachtigall Battalion in Galicia, the same thugs that Clintonistas like Victoria “f-ck the EU” Nuland tapped to help overthrow Ukraine’s elected government in 2014.
Trump and the Israelis are keen on setting up an “Arab NATO” in much the same manner. Fascists of those times and the Zio-fascists of today all think pretty much alike. Good on Egypt for not buying into this BS.