After announcing the US withdrawal from Syria in the wake of a phone
call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Trump held a
second call days later seeking assurances from Erdogan about what would
happen to the Syrian Kurdish territory Turkey is about to invade.
Trump told Erdogan he was “under pressure,” and needed a pledge
from Erdogan that the Turkish invasion wouldn’t lead to a humanitarian
crisis or destabilize the region. Exactly how this result was envisioned
is unclear.
Erdogan’s pledges weren’t super reassuring either, as he only told Trump
he had no quarrel with Syrian Kurds per se, and reiterated his position
that the Kurdish YPG are terrorists that need to be confronted
militarily.
Yet the YPG is also the de facto regional government of Rojava, the
Syrian Kurdish territory, and invading that region, encompassing one
third of Syria, and destroying that faction through force of arms, can
be expected to both destabilize the region and cause a big humanitarian
crisis.
I really MUST object to this insistence on describing 1/3 of Syria under US air control
as Rojava. or Kurdish state. This needs to stop. This 1/3 of Syria is inhabited by a VAST majority by Sirian Arabs and other minorities. Within this territory, Kurds are majority ONLY in Kobane region in North-East. A large number of Kurds — but not a majority — lives i n Hassakah, close to Iraqi border.
In the rest of this 1/3 of Syria, Kurds are less then 5% of population, to be generous. In Deir Azzor, where US troups on many occassions bombed Syrian Army in the name of protecting Kurds, kurds are LESS the 1%.
The idea of Rojava was modelled after Israel. That is, occupy large swath kf Arab land and turn it over to Kurd administration. Rebellions against Kurds by majority population were and still are described as “fighting ISIS”. This is the main cause of large civilian toll
caused by US bombings. The idea is — to discourage Arab population from ousting Kurd militias and administrators. Among them, teachers of Kurdish language in majority Arab schools introduced two years ago. Privatelly Arab countries objected, but some went public against creation of Kurdish version of Israel. It would be a shame if we continue so matter-of-factly to report on Rojava, as if blind to the ethnic cleansing that already occured all along Euphrates valley. City of Raqqa is perfect example of ethnic cleansing. Residential areas destroyed by bombing, no clean up of dead bodies in rubble, no water, electricity, demining. What was left standing — population is rigging up water supply and electricity. Kurdish militia keeps them under control. In all Rojava — Kurds put local officials on TV to swear allegiance to YPG administration. This is why US objected to return of refugees.
How hard is it to find this information? It is not — but we find it not interesting.
As for YPG. Why not have a peek int Afrin region where once YPG ruled. This is a majority Murd area in the West. Turkey invaded after YPG refused to turn over governance to Syrian government. Without YPG Kurds ither parties are managing local governance into which Turkey does not interfere. Turkey brought humanitarian aid and beefed up health care by opening clinics.
How hard would it be to get information on Afrin that is under Turkey control? All aspects of it, from anyone’s persoective? Not hard at all — but not politically interesting.
But it is HIGH time to stop calling the 1/3 of occupied land Rojava, as nobody has
gifted it to Kurds. It belongs to their rightfull owners , the population of cities and towns, and their representatives. It is up to them to vote and decide on their future. What cannot happen for as long as Rojava, along with its US drafted Constitution exists.
“the YPG is also the de facto regional government of Rojava, the Syrian Kurdish territory, and invading that region, encompassing one third of Syria”
Kurds are about 10% of the Syrian population. They never lived on 1/3 of the land. That larger fraction includes the Sunni areas the US governs, largely with too-radical-to-admit Sunni proxies, with the Kurds used to mask what is really happening.
“Kurdish led” forces and local governments means US led non-Kurd Sunni jihadis to which the US can’t admit, funded by Gulf Arabs to overthrow Assad and fight Iran, not to establish an enlarged Rojava of Western liberal dreams of democracy and women’s rights. The money men don’t even want any democracy or women’s rights.
The protection of Kurds from Turkey is being done the way it was done before. The Kurds make a deal with Assad for a local autonomy that does not complicate Assad’s policies, and Assad in turn makes a deal with the Turks to control the Kurds. That settlement is how near-war between Syria and Turkey was made into the peaceful relations with all neighbors mantra constantly repeated when Erdogan first took power.
That of course excludes the US, and excludes use against Iran. Loser in that is the campaign against Iran. That loss to the Iran attack is the real reason the US foreign policy Blob is upset. They don’t care about Kurds, any more than they cared about them in Iraq before, any more than they cared about allies used in Vietnamese Highlands or Laos in past wars. Who are they trying to kid with that stuff?
And as US lost Saudi and other Gulf funding for Sunni militants — there went the neatly constructed SDF show. Without complicit Arabs and with Arab population fed up by Kurdish overlirds — situation became untenable. It is almost as if Saudis and others decided that it was not in their interest to suppkrt creation of another minority dominated state under US control, and went out of the business of supporting Sunni armed islamists. It alpears that Thrkey picked up many of them. And these have an ax to grind against Kurds. These are the ones Turkey needs to control against taking revenge. It was easy for Turkey to take over Afrin, but getting into US controlled areas where Kurds were alliwed to ethnjcally cleanse Arab towns — will be harder. YPG must be the scalegoat to allow kther Kurdisb parties, untainted by Rojava abuses to come to power.
Russia and Turkey are strategizing the possible variations to mannaging this stage. It will be cemented kn the highest level. They cannot afford mistakes.
COMPLETELY agree that the huge upset is the ctash of Iranian agenda, as currently concieved. No worries, they will try something else — money printing still works. What was a real blow? Shia-obssesed state like Bahrain making nice to Assad. This is a huge signal to its 80% Shia population that the Emirate us ready for political compromise and lifting restrictions. Saudi tanks can go home. Kuwait with large Shia population making nice to Assad, compimenfs flying. All telling one thing — Iran is no longer being blamed for influencing Shia population. Once they make nice with Assad and allow their own Shia populatikn the freedom to praise Assad — Iran narrative is over. Saudi Arabia sent UAE to olen Embassy in Damascus. UAE will be paying pennance for undercutting Saudi Arabia in Temen under US tutelage. Qatar is mingling sith the rest, not too many questikns asked. Egypt and Sudan closjng ranks with the rest on Syria issue. It only remains for them to wait out end game in Yemen. This is what is eating the Blob. All of that they are putting at MbS feet, and bigger global picture eludes them.
Ironically leaving Syria and disentangling from the Kurds would make an Iran attack easier, though no more viable than before. Which is probably why remaining in Syria is clung to by some imperial observers; refusal to admit peak empire has been reached.
Either way, the Empire loses; its just that its loses more painfully remaining in Syria bleeding cash and credibility.
Assad and Putin can and have been waiting for the Empire to bleed out economically. Putin has even encouraged the U.S. to remain in Afghanistan at times. At the very least, resources sunk into quagmires are lost resources that can’t make trouble elsewhere, and far from made up for by over-funded black ops.
The YPG are a popular civilian front like the Vietcong. A war on them is a war on the Kurds.
Not quite; the Viet Cong were far more ethnically united, and constant in their well-chosen alliances. (Particularly their alliance with Russia).
American Kurdistan is like the Viet Cong annexing Laos.
Trump will certainly want to avoid taking the same flak for what Turkey does to the Kurds, as he has for what Saudi Arabia had done to the Yemenis. However, Trump supports MbS for America’s benefit, not Saudi Arabia.
Loyalty to allies is important but that said, Trump is not Mattis. They are in totally different roles with due responsibilities. Mattis’ loyalty was commendable but misplaced to allies of the U.S..
Mattis should have stayed semper fi to the U.S. through his President. Trump’s loyalty cannot be a soldier’s (or ex-soldier’s) band-of-brothers cult loyalty, but a statesman’s clear-eyed and pragmatic loyalty to his own nation.
Trump and the U.S. have no real moral commitments to the Kurds or their so-called democratic federation or armed forces (YPG). Trump is not Obama, and both U.S./NATO and Kurdish entities used one-another in cynical gamesmanship only to lose to Russia.
Now, the Kurds have become a geopolitical liability and its time to let them go.