The US withdrawal from Syria includes the withdrawal from the remote US
military base at al-Tanf, and that’s got some of the rebel factions in
the southeastern area around the base wondering what comes next.
Reporters say that many of the rebels are openly saying that they intend to lay down their arms and surrender as soon as the US leaves al-Tanf, and try to join into one of the Syrian government’s reconciliation offer.
On the other hand, commanders from the US-backed Mahavir al-Saura
brigade are looking for life after the US by issuing a demand for Syria
to grant them safe passage for 6,000 fighters into the rebel-held
northern Syria area around Idlib.
Such a deal is probably unlikely, as Syria is keen to negotiate
reconciliation and will doubtless want to pursue that before making any
deals to pack even more rebels into Idlib Province.
Idlib is technically rebel held. All the terrorists and “rebels” who laid down arms were moved to Idlib. There is a DMZ with Syrian government forces surrounding 75% of Idlib, Turkish forces on the northern front and the turkish border on the western front. Idlib will be destroyed very soon. It is the last safe haven for the terrorists.
It’s hard to know if any aspect of this situation has redeeming characteristics, outside of scenarios-by-which-the-whole-mess-might-someday-be-ending, by that I mean peace. What better time to say, Peace on Earth, GoodWill Toward Whomever?
It is not simple — Idlib has two very distinct and different types of groups. One, Al- Qaeda based, former Nusra Front, and today HTS. There are groups permanently linked with them by virtue of being financed through them. Those are some of the more vicious, like Al-Zinki. Others, on the other hand, were those sent to Idlib, after they surrendered, and left behind heavy weapons. The two groups are incompatible. Turkey declared HTS and their allies, a terrorist group, along ISIS, and YPG. But not others. Many of these, non-HTS groups inhabit the demiliteruzed zone, that Turkey and Russia patrol, including a number of humanitarian corridors. The stage is set for HTS to find solution with its Western backers. The problem is — where to ship them. The UN panel on HTS White Helmet crimes, including organ harvesting, staging chemical attacks, kidnapping children, revealed a great deal about the group that is integrated with HTS and celebrated in the West as “rescuers”. It is a shame for Western media to not cover the information.
HTS cannot break out unless it attacks those in demilitarized zone. In which case they will be hit by both Turkey and Russia.
Al-Tanf is a small area, and those fighters that are local — want to stay home and sign reconciliation. But fighters brought in — do not have anywhere to stay, this want out. In Idlib — the final process of sorting out the actual PLACES OF ORIGIN for those fighters will have to take place. For those brought in from far and wide — staying in Syria may not be viable. But how to repatriate them, will be a challenge.
“But how to repatriate them, will be a challenge.” : in body bags would by my choice.
Unfortunatelly, “repatriation” has already well under way. Our favorite place for anything nefarious is Albania. Well known in the region. Uyghur terrorists captured in Afghanistan that ended up in Guantanamo, got “released” in Albania, due to our “concerns” for being treated badly in Chjna. But many other groups followed, including Chechens captured in Syria. Many from Libya. Lately, there are Chechens showing up in Ukraine, as well as any ither Central Asian terrorists captured or otherwise “found” in Syria or Iraq. Those are problematic for Russia as they can easily mingle among Russian population in Ukraine or Russia. They most often speak Russian, and currently there are millions from various former Soviet Union Central Asians living in Russia. Even though many are from Chechnya, Dagestan, Inguishetia and other Russian republics, the popular tide there has turned against foreign sponsored “rebellions”, and are positively against foreign missionaries and their appeal to go fight for oppressed Moslems in the Middle East. Nonetheless, their increased presence in Ukraine is worrysome.
Who on earth has this kknd of money to bankroll these migrations? Saudi spigot, as well as UAE is definitely closed. Unless some Middle Eastern and Pakistani terror barrons are now blackmailed into spending some of their ill gotten gains. Trafficking in “fighters” was a very proffitabke business, but is now reduced to very few paying clients. One of them is France, picking up fighters to defend their Francophone colonies. Macron complained about Russian influence in Central African Relublic, and influence Turkey and Qatar are having in Mali. It seems that terrorist model of proxy fighting is just migrating to other spots.
For as ling as there are desparately poor young people in this world, detached from their homelands and their way of life, there will be plenty of cheap fighting forces available to human trafficking middle men.
As shown in this article, the Department of Defense has admitted that their actions in Syria may have created thousands of new terrorists:
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2018/11/operation-inherent-resolve-creating.html
This is yet another unintended consequence of poorly thought out foreign policy by Washington.
I wouldn’t assume it’s unintended. Instability is good for business.
As Lowkey said, “Is Obama the bomber getting ready for Syria”? That question was clearly answered.
Maybe Assad should take a play from the H.W. Bush playbook and annihilate the jihadists on a Syrian Highway of Death after getting them to agree to a cessation of hostilities and then leave the wahhadist corpses exposed in perpetuity as a standing testament to US and Saudi betrayal.