Senate hearings on the legal structure by which a nuclear first strike could conceivably be lost have come with assurances from Stratcom commanders both past and present that they would defy “illegal” orders from the president to do so. This may not be the case, however.
This has been an increasingly serious concern because of the talk of the US conducting a nuclear first strike against North Korea. The generals, however, maintain they’d have to refuse such an order if it was in violation of the laws of war.
Experts are warning, however, that this is unlikely to actually be the case, and that there is little incentive to refuse such an order, and much to lose. This is particularly true because while Congress has not authorized nuking North Korea, they haven’t expressly forbidden it.
Even though it’s not the way the law is intended to work, recent unauthorized wars have shown presidents have pretty much limitless war-making power unless Congress is willing to exercise a check on it, which they generally haven’t been.
Past examples of US personnel committing war crimes on presidential orders, including recent examples of torture, suggest that those “just following orders’ not only don’t face punishment, but tend to be promoted for their complicity.
This would be even truer in the case of a nuclear first strike, because as the hearings have shown there is not a well-established legal process through which to order such an attack, and barring explicit Congressional action forbidding a nuclear first strike, legality is murky enough to support doing almost anything.
Actually I think there is a big difference between ordering the torture of angry looking, long bearded Al-Qaeda captives on the one hand, and the mass incineration of entire civilian cities on the other hand.
If the generals obeyed an order to launch pre-emptive nuclear attacks on North Korea I think they have little doubt the results would be disastrous, TV screens across the world would be full of pictures of thousands of half melted Korean children, and America would be finally truely isolated as a rogue state. All the neocons who have been gagging for a war would quietly slip away to hide in the shadows, and abandon Mr Trump to take the blame, and Trump in turn would wholly, squarely blame it on his generals.
They know this. They don’t want to be tried for war crimes ordered by an impeached president. There’s no moral grey area when it comes to pre-emptive nuclear attacks. So long as the generals are sane and sober, they would refuse such an order. And we still have no reason to believe Trump would ever be stupid enough to give such an order on the first place.
Also it’s funny to read the Washington Post being the source for this article. The Washington Post, which backed the Iraq War, has no right whatsoever to preach at a military commander who says he would refuse an illegal order.
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I view the likelihood of the US conducting a nuclear first strike against North Korea at ten percent or less. While I have little doubt that Trump is planning some sort of military action against North Korea, I don’t see the US using nukes in a “decapitation” strike.
If the US conducts a conventional airstrike which starts a full-scale war – which is likely – the US might then use tactical nukes depending on the situation that develops.
If you can’t be sure you can decapitate NK’s nuclear facilities with a conventional strike – even using a MOAB bomb – then a nuclear strike is unlikely to be effective as well.
If a war develops between the US and NK, I expect both sides to not use nukes until necessary to prevent defeat. The geopolitical and military consequences of either side using them would be significant enough to defer use until absolutely necessary.
So the question is whether the President alone can order the murder of 10 million people, or whether he needs 51 votes in the senate to make it legal?
The Nazis at least recognised the Final Solution was morally wrong and did their best to hide the truth.
Small wonder that DPRK is working as fast as they can on their only possible defence.