While US officials have for months been presenting the invasion of Raqqa as the end-all, be-all battle against ISIS, they’ve also been preparing the public for the idea of attacking the “next ISIS capital,” and so on. Secretary of Defense James Mattis was even more direct, predicting that the situation would be even more complex after the fall of Raqqa.
“You have to play this thing very carefully,” Mattis insisted, saying it would become harder and harder to keep the various factions fighting against ISIS from getting into “incidents” against one another, while talking of continued support for the Kurdish YPG.
The “incidents” in question have mostly been US warplanes attacking Shi’ite militias, and shooting down the occasional warplane or drone aligned with the Syrian government. Though the US has claimed they “welcome” Syrian offensives against ISIS, they’ve continued to attack them every time they get close.
Turkey is also eager to move against ISIS, but has been so heavily involved in fighting the YPG as well that it’s going to be difficult for them to get into the area without completely derailing the US-backed Kurdish offensive and starting a whole separate war.
This has been a recurring problem throughout the Syria war, with conflicts quickly getting shifted into different conflicts as territory changes hands. Mattis’ comments reflect the increased certainty that the US is going to be smack in the middle of this next round of conflicts.
Well Mr. Mattis, it is real easy actually. Our forces will have to leave under international law for Assad will demand you leave. You see unless we are invited into the country then we are invaders. So, Assad, Russia, and Iran are going to make it real easy by clobbering the so called moderate violent Islamic Jihadists whom you currently support and everything will be just fine.
This guy makes John Kerry look like a diplomat. And that’s hard to do.
That complexity is two things, moving on to attack Assad next, and re-sorting the wild mix of mutually antagonistic small groups swarming in Syria.
Firing generals raised on doctrines of endless AUMF would be a first good step. The
plan being implemented currently was Hillary’s plan. Knowinh too well that Kurds do not have the manpower to control areas liberated from ISIS. That is, provided that they can liberate all townships and villages. US is now in the trap set by Hillary plan. With Kurds from Kobani area only — the Syrian Democraric forces cannot hold territory. The Raqqa governorate is majority Syrian Arab, and they absolutely do not wish to be occupied by Kurds. The very few Arabs in this coalition cannot help. US is therefore in a situation that Hillary wanted — being forced to bring own troops to provide occupational force and prop Kurdish state. Turkey and Syrian Army have secured a cordon sanitaire, from Thrkish border to Al -Bab, linking there with Syrian government forces. One has to keep in mind that all maps of Syrian war are deliberately deceptive. Thus, the corridor is shown as under “rebels”, but these are forces made of dispossesed Arabs and Turkmen, who work for Turkish Army, and are preventing Afrin Kurds going towards Raqqa to unite with Kobani Kurds, ethnically cleanse the border, and allow all terrorists relicated ti Idlib to break out and go after Syrian government. This is why Turkey is moving forces back into the region. Predictably — Kurds are complaining –as if Turkey is preventing them from taking ISIS out. As US leadership is talking from different mouths — it is unclear if US will support Kurdish occupation of all ISIS held areas. Or will US let Kurds take what they can, and allow others — Syrian Army and various militias (Palestinians, Iraqi, Iranians, and Christians) to take other areas. But it is clear so far that US is preventing Syrian Army to move against ISIS in the direction of Al-Tanf border crossing — a critical ISIS supply line. And the shooting of Syrian plane has occured when Syrian Army chased ISIS out of the area on Euphrates river. There were no Kurdish forces there — but the area MAY have been promised to Kurds. Turkey is counting on US promise that Kurds will not be the administrators of Arab majority towns and villages. This makes it difficult to promise Kurds their dtate, but all the preparations are under way — including constitution.
At the same time Israel is helping Al-Qaeda keep Syrian forces away. This looks like an opportunistic move –Israel may wish to extend its holdings in Golan Heights. And ISIS group is cosily nestled on Jordan/Israel border with Syria. All so transparent.
ISIS will no longer get support from Saudi Arabia — change in leadership in Riyadh will allow for change in policy. But Qatar will stop funding Turkish “rebels” — which will no longer matter. Turkey has taken over that corridor. And has agreed with Russia and Iran on deconfliction zones. If US cannot reconcile the positions between those who want to continue support for more imaginary friendly rebels — and those that wish to push for political settlement. Because the longer the meaningless conflict continues — the more anti-American sentiment in Iraq and Turkey grows. And the political chaos in Gulf will get worse. US standing is now irreparably damaged. A large slice of its influence has sailed off into horizon. Time for damage control. The new Crown Prince has been a frequent visitor to Moscow, signed contracts with Russia on military equipment including tanks. He has worked out the oil pricing deal with Russia, expressed enthusiasm for China Silk Road, signed the deal with Russia to establish a joint energy development fund. The problem at hand is the negotiation on using yuan for China oil purchases. And UAE has taken over most of South Yemen, while Kuwait and Oman are staying out of the conflict with Qatar. Already, the positions are softening, but not due to US interference. Thus, the restructuring of Gulf is under way, but no longer under the powerful croen prince Nayaf — the most pro-American Saudi royal in long time. He was in charge of all “anti-terrorist” operations for decades, and a key contact with FBI and CIA. This is a sudden change in a Kingdom that prefers moving at glacier speed. Thus, one has to expect some reactions from the court. But the secrecy is the hallmark, and the stability of Middle East hangs in the balance.
Hmmm
It is long past time for the US Military to withdraw from Syria. It is also long past time to cut off Israel from all US support. It is long past time for Israel to stand on its own. If Israel wants to steal other peoples lands, then let Israel’s sons and daughters die for it. And let the Israeli people spend their hard earned dollars to support it. It is time to tell that lunatic NentenYahoo to fight his own battles and pay for his own wars…..