Syria has now completed six full years of war, and entering its seventh year, there are signs of changes on the ground, but not necessarily the sort of changes that are going to end the war itself, so much as continue the ongoing transition between different warring parties.
The Assad government has continued to secure territory, retaking the city of Aleppo, while the rebels in nearby Idlib, long dominated by al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front, have increasingly been at odds with one another, with several coalitions forming to fight one another.
Perhaps the biggest change, however, is the addition of a new combat force into the country, with Turkey’s invasion in August. Turkey has focused mostly on taking ISIS territory so far, but has also expressed interest in attacking Kurdish forces.
The Turkish invasion was part of a general trend that cost ISIS a fair bit of territory in the past year, though it hasn’t necessarily made the now ISIS-free areas any less unstable, with Turkey and its rebel allies looking to expand against both government territory, and the Kurdish YPG’s holdings.
On top of that, the efforts at restarting peace talks appear to have ended in failure this week, with Russia, Turkey, and Iran bringing the rebels and government to Astana for talks, which after promising earlier stages saw a full rebel boycott this week.
This all suggests that even seeming “game-changers,” like the government recovering Aleppo or ISIS losing major amounts of land, aren’t necessarily bringing the war any closer to ending, but simply are changing the equation and which targets the ever-growing number of combatants are focusing on.
Mr. Ditz, I think it’s time for Antiwar.com to start talking about the L.L.C., who they are, who they were, who funds them and who weaponizes them.
Ever growing number of combatanrs? Where is this data coming from? For all the noise, Turkey and Russia are coordinating efforts. Turkey alone has taken under its command hundreds of splinter Free Syria Army groups. These groups were from day one on edge iver Kurdish romp through their regions in an effort to link their two regions. Assad government was the enemy for a number of reasons.
One, Assad tried to appease Kurds fearing their alliance with US. So, it did not condemn what Kurdscwere doing. Second, Assad lost every capability to protect population on Turkish border — the region became infested with smugglers and terrorist infiltration. And it was Kurds from all sides if the border to mostly profit from it — even though MSM always blamed bad Erdogan — even when his power was minimal. Up until 2016. And lastly, these groups needed money and arms — and it is coming from CIA and Saudi forces — so, they had to be “anti-regime”. But in reality they mostly fought Kurds. Turkey was arming Turkmen for the same purpose. Turkey now controls these groups, and the potential for fighting with Syrian army is more of a wishfull thinking then a reality.
Cooperation between all concerned in Manbij indicates the new message being sent to all and sundry: Turkish government APPROVES of Syrian government taking control of Manbij — but is keeping Kurds on notice: there will be no Kurdish state along Turkish border. In the meantime, hundreds of groups have split from Al-Nusra, the great UK/CIA hope. Al-Nusra infiltrated many local Sunni groups in the hay day of “Assad must go” Western mantra. This is how theyvwere armed, but also stayed on Al-Nusra leash. With over 500 of such groups signing reconcilation agreements — Al-Nusra and their families departed for Idlib. So — exactly how many of the “opposition” groups remain? It is an EVER SHRINKING NUMBER of rebel/jihadists/Salafi/oposition — remaining. In Idlib, Al-Nusra clobbered Jaish Al-Ahram, and any other unaffiliated, native Idlib groups.
So, where exactly are Al-Nusra forces still imbedded among locals? Not much. A pocket in Homs, East Goutha, and on border with Jordan. And of course — Idlib. By all accounts, number if groups has been reduced to the few niw cowtowing to Al-Nusra and ISIS. THAT IS ALL. But Al-Nusra is having an undying support from UK, and continuously keep on trouble making through UN Euro-busybodies in UN suits, as well as selling Al-Nusra as an agrieved party. This is just UK obsession with Russia.
So — where are now the rebels to give justification to Saudi based High Negotiating Commitee? With Jaish Al-Islam now being clibbered as well — who will be attending peace confernce? Who? NAME ONE NOT CONTROLLED BY Al-Nusra? And outside of ISIS — who else?
All Astana proved now beyond a shadow of the doubt that whatever appearance if independence these groups exhibited before — now, they have none. Military operations against Al-Nusra and those controled by it — continue. For many smaller groups this is the end ifvthe road — surrender, or accept Al-Nusra control.
The way I see it — larger players are keeping their ever increasing control over smaller. Between Syria’s controlled areas where the peace is shattered occassionally by Al-Nusra terror attacks ,US control of Kurds and Turkish control if FSA and other Turkmen and boorder Arab groups — the field has cleared up considerably.
The rest is politics. Anyone noticed a noisy divorce between Turkey and Europe. Europe being boneheaded tried its typical browbeating of inferiors — not realizing that Turkey wanted the row in the first place. Turkey’s minister of defence announced that S-400 Turkey is getting from Russia will not be integrated with NATO systems. Just to make the obvious clear.
If anyone knows of other groups and their location other then Al-Nusra controlled ones and ISIS — fill in the information.
I recall this from Aug 12, 2016 Iran and Turkey pledge greater cooperation on Syria
Despite their differences, the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran are pledging greater cooperation on trying to resolve the Syrian crisis – after meeting in Ankara.
https://youtu.be/whXYW-khgq0