After two weekends of major gains in the northern city of Aleppo, Syrian forces are increasingly near to an outright victory in the former industrial and financial capital of the country, with several more districts seized and reports of the first troops making their way into the Old City, one of the last rebel strongholds.
Rebels have long downplayed the significance of these losses, insisting they will fight to the last man to defend the city, though reports today suggest the rebel leadership is in talks with the US on some sort of negotiated withdrawal from what little remains of their portion of the city.
Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that five new districts were taken today alone, while the Syrian Army says that in this most recent offensive over the past couple of weeks they’ve taken 35 districts from the rebels, well over half of the rebel territory in the city’s east. Russia has warned the rebels who refuse to leave the city face outright elimination.
Aleppo originally became contested early in the Syrian Civil War in 2012, with the factions involved then each predicting a quick military victory, and one which would be decisive to the overall civil war. Since then, several factions have come and gone from the city, and no faction has been close to fully reuniting it.
During the February ceasefire, al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front was excluded from the truce, and used it as a chance to expand into Aleppo Province, eventually getting territory inside the city itself. By summer the city was split in half, with the Nusra-dominated rebels in the east, and the military in the west. Both sides have launched offensives and counteroffensives since.
While it now seems that the military may ultimately “win” the battle over the city, it isn’t clear how much of an impact it will have on the overall civil war, with the city having been heavily damaged over the last several years, and amounting to a bunch of badly damaged residential districts separated by barriers.
The impact of Aleppo is big psychologically (momentum clearly with Assad and his allies), and even bigger in terms of recourses. Aleppo will free up over 15,000 troops while the coming fall of the last pockets near Damascus will free up another 10,000 or so.
From there it’s a concentrated steamroller vs Iblid.
In fact, the rate of surrender in other parts of Syria is rapid by now. The last pocket of East Ghouta is about to fall, as they are cut off.
In spite of the fact that East Aleppo is in ruins, apparently, some people still call it home. Those whose homes have not been ruined, are actually being helped right now to return to the liberated areas, following the clearing of mines.
I am not sure why is it necessary to minimize the value of liberating Aleppo from the scum. In fact, Al-Qaeda is not even the most brutal out there, Al-Zinka are even more famous for butchery of civilians. EVERY SINGLE CIVILIAN THAT WILL BE SPARED THE DEATH AT THE HAND OF THESE BARBARIANS IS WORTH LIBERATING ALEPPO. EVERY SAVED BOY FROM THE “RECRUITERS” AND EVERY SAVED GIRL FROM THE “MARRIAGE” — IS WORTH LIBERATING ALEPPO. MANY PERISHED WAITING FOR THIS MOMENT. I cannot believe the insensitivity in discussing the “win”, as if this is the only thing at stake. No, at stake are real lives.
The process for eliminating various groups is conducted under umbrella of Reconciliation. Many communities were split apart by violence, and often — ended up being shattered by supporting various groups. Reconciliation process is actually a program conducted by the Government with Russian support. There are already over 1,000 of those signed.
There may be one more pocket close to Jordan border, but it may be only a refugee camp that militants tried to infiltrate.
I agree, from then on, it is Idlib. Since there are by now hundreds different Salafi groups, along with Free Syrian Army groups — many of the groups not numbering more then 5 people — and Al-Qaeda is still the largest group. How will this be handled — depends. I feel that the émigré “opposition” — new version of Ahmed Chalabi — will claim them as the best of buddies, in order to get a political foothold. I do not think Trump will play these games.
Then, it is on to Raqqa. And the jostling for Kurdish state — that by now Kurds must understand will not be happening. It remains to be seen how will Turkey participate in the liberation of Raqqa. Population is not in favor of Kurds, as they fear them just as they fear ISIS. US may rely more on Turkey in providing post-conflict support in both Syria and Iraq. I am inclined to thin that Trump will not be in favor of complicated trip wires, and nation-building. lasting.
Trump, Mad Dog and Flynn on the horizon. Syrian Rebels going to make the best deal they can with Asad. The Obama CIA backed foreign
ISIS fighters in The whole Middle East are about to get triple crossed.
Goats and pigs are their first choice.
“reports today suggest the rebel leadership is in talks with the US on some sort of negotiated withdrawal”
I think they need to talk to the SYRIANS or the RUSSIANS. Not much point talking to their US employers unless the topic is about their productivity bonuses or whether they have met this years KPIs.
No bonus for the rebels after this performance!
“While it now seems that the military may ultimately “win” the battle over the city, it isn’t clear how much of an impact it will have on the overall civil war, ”
There is no civil war disinfo Ditz.
Thanks for labeling your disinfo.
Ho ho ho. You’ve got the libertoonian ‘humour’ down pat, Thomas. What a wit.
Ditz, Ditz. Instead of copy pasting the last paragraph into every one of your Aleppo articles, do some research. In the East Aleppo district of Masaken Hanano, which was liberated from the terrorists less than ten days ago, people are already moving back in, the streets have been cleared of debris, and reconstruction has already begun.
Real estate is all location, and that is true of a strategic city too. There is good reason Aleppo was built there, grew there for centuries, became Syria’s largest city and merchant center. Location. It still has that.
Once the location is free of contending forces shooting it up, it will increase in value.
Another factor, as with Stalingrad and Guadalcanal in WW2, is the losses taken while failing to defend it. They lost too much, and it will hurt them elsewhere.
Who holds ‘the Citadel’ in Aleppo?
Today 7 Dec the heads of France, Canada, Germany, The US and the UK realeased a statement calling on Russia to stop bombing Aleppo and for the UN Security Council to impose a cease fire in Syria. Can someone explain to me why the US/EU/NATO are supporting Syrian terrorist who are the moral twins of ISIS. It just boggles my flipping mind.