UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon says he was given assurances by Russian President Vladimir Putin that his government has no intentions of invading eastern Ukraine or launching any other military operations against Ukrainian territory.
US officials, including Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, have reported the same thing throughout the past week, but despite this, the eagerness to play up the idea of a Russian invasion continues to have momentum.
Ukraine’s interim government is leading that charge, claiming far-fetched numbers of troops at the border, at times over 100,000, and saying they are getting the Kiev bomb shelters ready for the attack.
Ukraine’s military is sure hoping that’s not going to happen, with its leadership pointing out they are outnumbered, outgunned, and simply not prepared for a big war, especially after the recent protester-led regime change led to a huge turnover in its leadership.
If the Russians wanted to invade, it wouldn't be difficult. But why lose Russian troops to capture a big political/economic/military headache. Putin has wisely decided to leave the US with the mess they've made in Ukraine.
Putin might have to go in and clean up that mess.
First, the crucial detail in Putin's statement is "intention". What he "intends" now may not be what he will come to "intend" later. He has already stated that he ***WILL*** defend Russians, should the need arise. So that's the situation as it stands. Putin is in wait and watch mode, and all the principals know the score: Putin intends to stand his ground, and push back as he deems necessary. Meanwhile, Ukraine, the East in particular, is almost certainly swarming with Russian agents, preparing the ground for whatever Putin may come to "intend" in the future. As they should.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are coming in May. The Russians are confident they can win the east this way without firing a shot. Between now and then, the Russians expect the brownshirt puppet regime in Kiev to show its true colors. Will they accept an electoral result that boots them from power? Or will they be unable to restrain the "N@zi" impulse? You make the call. Pre-election or post-election that's the "mess" the Russians are standing-by to clean up.
Predicting the future is dicey, but here's one little prediction: Putin takes Kiev and the east and south (the good parts, the historically Russian parts) of Ukraine and leaves the rest, as an object lesson, to be looted by the banksters and other neo-liberals.
I would not be too surprised when the elections are cancelled or postponed due to the meltdown currently underway amongst the junta after the coup. The Right Sector and other paras are not going to go away quietly. I expect things to devolve quickly and violently. Putin should only have to wait until the dust settles and the remaining usurpers beg him to come save them because the US and its allies will still be "talking" about what they are going to do to get involved – McCain will probably have kittens on the Senate floor by then.
But, if tensions subside, the media will have no drama to report…Andrea Mitchell (MSNBC's Israel-Firster) just vibrates when she talks about the possibility of a shooting war with Russia. She must be channeling Naftali Bennett's raging anti-Russian crusade.
The US needs to pull back and put a damper on the pusillanimous cold warriors pushing for another war none of them will have to fight.
Nor anyone will ultimately "win."
Great. If he keeps his word. He also swore high and holy that he wouldn't annex Crimea. Several times, if my memory serves me well. That is precisely Putin's problem. His word is no longer good and no matter what he now does, the internatiuonal community will never again trust him. There are established rules and practices in international relations and anyone who violates them will be shut out. That isn't a problem in a small and geographically remote country (Libya, for example) but it's a disaster in a huge country like Russia. Thus, as long as Putin remains in office, there will be a crisis. As soon as he goes, the crisis will be over.
"…established rules and practices in international relations and anyone who violates them will be shut out…"
Unless you are the US, of course. Established law…such as spying on our allies…spying on American citizens…wars of aggression…rendition…torture…use of weapons of mass destruction…right? Is that because the US is Exceptional?!?!?