Ukraine’s military was already under strain after last weekend’s regime change, with the interim government ousting much of the military’s existing leadership in favor of new commanders they believed would be more loyal. Now, they’re mobilizing outright for war with Russia.
That’s going to be a tall order. Even if Ukraine had a huge military, which it doesn’t, its leadership is in shambles, with multiple high profile defections to Crimea, which is setting up its own military in anticipation of holding the Ukraine at bay pending a referendum on secession.
A lot of the troops in the Crimea have reportedly defected from Ukraine as well, and the Ukraine’s new navy chief, the third in 48 hours, is ordering what few ships they have left to leave the Crimea and dock at ports in the Sea of Azov.
While Russia’s deployments have been presented as “aggression” by Ukraine, the troops have so far focused on defensive positions around the Crimea, hoping to keep the Ukrainian military from stopping the breakaway region’s secession, and a potential re-accession into the Russian Federation.
Though rhetorically Ukrainian officials seem to have a lot of support in the West for portraying Russia as an invading horde, there seems to be no real prospect of Western military intervention against Russia, and with Ukraine’s own military woefully unprepared to reconquer the Crimean Peninsula, the mobilization is probably not a prelude to a march across the Isthmus of Perekop.
At the end of 2013, with the protests already happening, Win/Gallup found that Ukrainians viewed the USA, not Russia, as the biggest international threat, by a huge margin. 33% viewed US as a threat, and 5% viewed Russia as a threat:
http://empireslayer.blogspot.com/2014/03/now-obam…
Ukraine can't retake Crimea. If anything, Russian forces will now invade Ukraine outright, and restore that territory to the Russian Empire – where it was for centuries. When Ukraine gave up its share of the Soviet nuclear arsenal in 1994, it sealed its eventual reabsorption by Russia.
Invasions wouldn't help anyone (but the insane). This is all preparation for the next round of negotiations on its new government, the degree of independence for the Crimea and new treaties to be signed over its status. Also, the new government in Kiev doesn't sound very stable and new reforms to be announced will cause more riots over time. Russia desires a buffer and benefits for the perception EU=bankruptcy, Russia=good deal. Of course the NATO and US are realizing it will be very hard to keep Ukraine in some state of order and oriented on the West this way. The "project" could easily fail when for example new IMF policies cannot touch the Crimea…
Cannot touch southeastern Ukraine outside Crimea. As those regions made decisions not to follow orders from Kyev, it wll be very hard to force them to obey MMF imposed privatizations, cuts in pay and retirments, eductions, etc. As Russia does not have to spend money trying to prop up failing financial system in Ukraine, it will have plenty of money to help the regions that already do well economically, and without paying into Kyev's coffers, will be economically self-sufficient. I would really like to know how can Kyev force these regions to pay any of their revenue to the government they do not recognize. I am sure that the first thing they did when taking over local and regional government, took a good look at the finances.
Should Ukraine break into four areas that are now refusing obedience to Kyev, that would mean Crimea, Small Russia (eastern Ukraine), Kyev Ukraine, and Galicia (wesern Ukraine) — at least they could break up the debt of Ukraine, in which way MMF will at least get some of the money from Russia as a share od pro-Russian regions' debt. How is Kyev paying bills today, as it does not have money. Are we bailing them out, too?
Putin is going to take the East and leave the chaotic West to the Americans and Europeans to sort out. He doesn't want it and they people who live there are going to be sorry when the IMF come in to make them all debt slaves.
Good point…
Yes, the ordinary man-on-the-street Ukrianian will get screwed. The new class of sell-out politicians however, will be semi-lavishly bribed by by their puppeteers. It's always easier to bribe the few than provide justice for the many.
The five billion dollars the neocon/neoliberal US "regime changers" have spent since 1991 to get to this point would have been a bargain if things had worked out according to plan. But neither their plans nor their execution of those plans ever seem to work out. Perhaps because they live in their own echo-chamber dream world, and plans born of fantasy cannot survive in the real world,…you know, the one that has Putin in it.
It will be interesting to see how many Ukrainians end up dead through the agency of neoliberal/neocon fantasists. Putin's competence will be measured by the degree to which he is able to minimize casualties.
Yes, the ordinary man-on-the-street Ukrianian will get screwed. The new class of sell-out politicians however, will be semi-lavishly bribed by by their puppeteers. It's always easier to bribe the few than provide justice for the many.
The five billion dollars the neocon/neoliberal US "regime changers" have spent since 1991 to get to this point would have been a bargain if things had worked out according to plan. But neither their plan nor the execution ever seem to work out. Perhaps because they live in their own echo-chamber dream world, and plans born of fantasy cannot survive in the real world,…you know, the one that has Putin in it.
It will be interesting to see how many Ukrainians end up dead through the agency of neoliberal/neocon fantasists. Putin's competence will be measured by the degree to which he is able to minimize casualties.
Great analysis from Parry: http://consortiumnews.com/2014/03/02/what-neocons…
Its bad joke time.
What are the objectives of a potential Ukrainian military invasion of the Crimea? A regular paycheck from the Army of the Crimea.
I think a standoff is indeed the most likely outcome for the moment. That will actually work to Ukraine's advantage because it, in practice, has nothing left to lose. Putin's problem is that all this is monumentally disrupting the business of the oligarchs who back him. Stocks were already down 10% by mid-morning on the Moscow stock exchange and the value of the rouble is going through the floor. Sooner or later, the oligarchs will rein Putin in or take him down, probably both, one after the other. 2014 looks like being a lot of fun?
These oligarchs were reigned in back in 2008-9 when they got into debt with western financial insitutions and the financial crisis almost made all of them prime targets for takeover by western financial institutions. Russia intervened to save them to the tune of over 300 bilion dollars, and depending on the amounts involved, State took share in ownership of those corporations. Oligarchs have never been the same since. Your postings are well known for your fierce anti-Russian, anti -Serbian rants, so it your wishfull thinking is not a surprise.
It's Putin who takes down oligarchs, not the other way round.
Putin 2016! 😉
Ukraine has massive debt, which means it has everything to lose.
Those military groups aren’t Ukrainian..
Ukraine moblilizing? Oh, horrors.
"Over Crimea" !? Wishful thinking. Maybe mobilizing to create a situation where, if Ukraine can't remain whole (and it can only if Russian interests are considered; meaning EU or NATO financial, political and military encroachment must not go over a certain level which Russia could tolerate) then would have a chance to keep as much territory as possible outside Russian influence. The costs would be paid by those living in Ukraine, of course.
Cynically speaking, the West doesn't lose anyway, this time. In fact it wins, to some extent. But it looks like this could be the last offensive card it plays. From now on the Western global offensive ends. At best, for the West, the new major borders will be settled when the Ukrainian crisis passes (it might take some time and blood). At worst, Russia and possible others will proceed with counter-offensives of their own. The next battlefield is anyone's guess. Not necessarily a geographically identifiable one.
The first test for the Russian army is to figure out how to retain the support of the majority in the eastern Ukraine when the locals start to 'cleanse' supporters of the Kiev regime. There has already been a demand for soldiers of the Ukraine army in the area to turn themselves in. This will surely extend to families of the troops and civil servants. Hesitation by the occupiers will be seem as ambivalence. The Russian army is enjoying a honeymoon period that could be short-lived.
For now, there's no sign of Russian army outside Crimea, where it already stationed. The honeymoon hasn't started yet, love is not formalized, marriage is only in the talks. Fall out may come but a free relationship presents some obvious advantages, they live in sin but are not committing adultery, there's no need to sign a prenuptial agreement and it's not clear if there's pregnancy at the horizon. Also, once married, Kiev lover boy, now a snub at nobody, might become more interesting for the wife.