An announcement in Iran’s state media makes it sound like a done deal: “Iran cutting oil export to six European states” in retaliation for those nations’ backing of an EU embargo on Iran. The states were named as Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Greece and France.
The announcement came with a caveat that Iran would be willing to sell to European companies that signed long-term agreements, so long as they were able to guarantee that payment would actually be made.
The problem is, no one apparently told Iran’s Oil Ministry. No one told any of the countries impacted either, and Spain reports that Iranian oil is still flowing into the country unaffected by the supposed embargo.
Iran’s parliament is expected to approve a bill to this effect next month, but the report appears to have been premature. Iran has increasingly been relying on India and China as export markets for their oil.
Briar Rabbit: Please! Please! Don’t throw me in that Briar Patch!
Not so easy to change business as usual………. Not so simple to alter profitable arrangements to suit ideological considerations………. Not even possible to stop the trade in commodities soly due to laws that proscribe their trade.. But prohibitions raise costs…..with other collateral damages like dead cops and corrupted societies………
The Iranians are rather a savvy people and I admire them greatly. So far, they have managed to land on their feet, so it is a pretty safe bet they have already figured out what the next move should be.
The Iranian state media announcement made no reference to when the cutting off would occur, and in any case certainly made no intimation that it had already happened. Even if they had cut off the oil on the date of the announcement, 15 February, there would, as of today – 16 February -, still be some number of oil tankers at sea en route to the to-be-embargoed countries. When the embargo does happen, people will know it soon enough.
Do you think Germany is going to guarantee Greece's fuel bill??? I don't and by April this will be true of Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Major oil companies don't and won't take these credit risks. Iran can and will and the Swift payment ban is just going to increase payments in roubles, yuan, rupees and other currencies. The new Iranian oil bourse launched last week will create a settlement system that is completely outside the Western banking system. This system will be integrated with Chavez's joint Iran-Venezualan bank and hey presto we will have a functioning trade system outside the reserve currency the dollar and the World Trade Organisation. Expect an invasion of Iran, Ahmed DinnerJacket has said as much recently.
In November Hellenic Petroleum was unable to import basic fuel. The reason why Greece's reliance on oil imports from Iran jumped from 15pc to 70pc in a two-week period in November was because Tehran agreed to take on the credit risk.
Got everyones attention though…maybe the idea of a war with Iran is not that great of an idea…and for those that insist on an embargo against Iran…they now know that they better get used to walking pretty soon…
According to the latest news, oil export to France and Holland has already been stopped.