Israel has informed the Lebanese government that Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure will be “hit hard” if Hezbollah in any way takes part in the apparently upcoming US-Iran War. Lebanese officials have urged Hezbollah not to do so, since the war “does not concern us.”
The twin hopes are that Hezbollah will stay out of the war, and that Israel won’t just attack Lebanon anyway. The latter seems incredibly unrealistic, as Israel has been in a state of ceasefire with Lebanon since November 2024, and has attacked Lebanon over 1,000 times in that period.
The reports in the lead-up to the presumptive US attack on Iran are that Israel is planning massive attacks on Shi’ite targets across the region as part of the war. This would include attacking Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.
An Israeli soldier in southern Lebanon | Image from IDF Spokesman
Israel has been escalating the rate at which they’re already attacking Lebanon for weeks in anticipation of this, even though Hezbollah hasn’t fired a single rocket at Israel since the ceasefire went into effect. The hope that Israel won’t attack Lebanon if Hezbollah doesn’t attack them does not appear to have a very strong historical basis.
Indeed, Israel attacked a Lebanese Army post in Marjayoun just today, and the government has instructed Lebanese forces to return fire if the attacks happen again. This could quickly lead to Israel further escalating a war with Lebanon that is not even tangentially Hezbollah related.
In practice, Israel has been attacking Lebanon on a near daily basis for a very long time now, so in many ways the threat to start a new war is likely to ring hollow at any rate. The attempt to link it to the Iran War by imposing an obligation on Hezbollah to stay out of it, similarly, is likely to be a tough sell when all indications are Israel is viewing this potential war as a license to attack Shi’ites unilaterally, and in all likelihood they will do so whether or not Hezbollah does anything at all.
