Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, who has long resisted anything resembling a settlement in the ongoing conflict with Lebanon (nominally in a state of ceasefire), has threatened to launch a new war against the country if Lebanon hasn’t fully disarmed Hezbollah by year’s end.
Katz vowed there would “be no calm in Beirut,” citing the recent attack on the capital by the Israeli military, and insisted Lebanon could have no order or stability unless the State of Israel’s security interests are fulfilled.
Such a disarmament by that deadline is effectively impossible, and the fact that Israel will not allow Lebanon even a modicum or order and stability is a big reason why. Lebanon’s government controversially agreed to disarm Hezbollah, but such efforts to do so in the south, beyond what Hezbollah allows them to do, are all but impossible as Israel regularly attacks southern Lebanon and the area is dangerous for the Lebanese state to try to operate in.
An image of displaced in southern Lebanon during the ceasefire ©MSF
Indeed, despite a year-long ceasefire, Israel never even withdrew from Lebanon after the last war, and continues to reinforce their military outposts, constructed on Lebanese soil after the war, and which Katz has repeatedly insisted Israel will not give up.
Not that any deal which would involve giving them up ever came up. Though the ceasefire mandated an Israeli pullout by early January, and we’re now deep into November, that is just one of thousands of ceasefire violations the Israelis have committed, and while presenting to the US their desire for negotiations, Israel has also repeatedly rejected Lebanese offers for such negotiations, seemingly because they don’t intend to withdraw.
While the threat of a new war is not new, and even calling it a “new” war is somewhat questionable when the attacks from the last war never really stopped, Katz is stepping up both attacks and rhetoric, also suggesting the government would “review” the maritime border deal with Lebanon.
Even without a new war, Lebanon is not exactly a safe place right now. The constant Israeli attacks have killed at least 127 civilians since the ceasefire, and UNICEF today warned that Lebanese children remain in grave danger because of the ongoing strikes.
Amani Bezzi can attest to that. A mother of four, in September she lost her husband and three of her children to an Israeli attack near the Bint Jbeil hospital. The IDF, as always claimed an unnamed Hezbollah member was killed, while the UN special rapporteur says it “was a targeted killing of unarmed civilians.”
While Katz continues to threaten escalation, it seems the Lebanese government has few options to meet his demands. This may mean further conflict is all but inevitable.
