Cursory reports in the press are suggesting that Lebanon might be on the verge of joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel. The Lebanese government isn’t explicitly denying it, but there seem to be some huge obstacles in the way.
The first obvious obstacle is that since a ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon that began in November, Israel has launched thousands of strikes on Lebanese territory, and Israeli ground troops are still actively occupying five outposts across southern Lebanon, with officials insisting they have no intention of leaving.
The Lebanese government is trying to tie a normalization to a withdrawal, even though the withdrawal was already meant to happen during the ceasefire, with multiple deadlines ignored.
A view shows a damaged site in the aftermath of Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, Lebanon October 8, 2024. REUTERS/Ahmad Al-Kerdi
Yet even getting to a withdrawal for normalization deal is a challenge, with the US and Israel both demanding the Lebanese government unilaterally disarm Hezbollah fully before the talks can even advance to that stage.
The ceasefire only counseled Hezbollah to be removed from the areas south of the Litani River, and while the government has talked to them about fully disarming, the actual deal seems like a non-starter while Israel is still actively occupying Lebanese soil, actively attacking Lebanese people, and refusing to even start discussions of stopping that until Lebanon gives them all they demand.
The US, as expected, is pushing the Israeli position hard on this, with envoy Tom Barrack giving Lebanon a promise of normalization if they agree to what Israel wants. Lebanon is still discussing how to respond to this, though Hezbollah’s own position seems like it will make full capitulation for the promise difficult to deliver even if the government is so inclined.
Reportedly Hezbollah would be open to disarming but only on condition of Israel ending the occupation and ending the constant strikes on Lebanese territory. One would think normalization would imply that, but the ceasefire was meant to require that from Israel as well and delivered neither.
The US, moreover, was meant to be the overseer of the ceasefire, and has done nothing about Israel’s constant attacks. On top of that the US made multiple guarantees to Lebanon as to Israeli behavior during this ceasefire which simply didn’t materialize, so getting the US promise of being allowed to normalize relations with Israel carries little weight.
All the conditions are theoretically there for a ceasefire, but Israeli hawks are unlikely to be willing to make even tiny concessions to enable the Lebanese government to deliver what they want, and the US seems perfectly happy to keep haranguing Lebanon for not delivering everything Israel wants.
