When Israel invaded Syria in December, it announced the intention to remain at Mount Hermon, along the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) region on the Syrian side of the border, through 2025. That appears to have been just the start, as Israel has taken more Syrian territory since then, and Defense Minister Israel Katz is now saying the occupation will be for an “unlimited time.”
Israel has declared all of southern Syria to be a no-go area for Syrian long-range forces and has a zone Syrian troops aren’t allowed in that stretches through much of Rif Damashq Governorate, as well as all of Quneitra, Daraa, and the western part of Suwayda Governorates. Katz says Israel is prepared to keep its own military in that entire area to ensure its declarations are followed.
Katz’s comments aren’t the only indication that this is a more or less permanent occupation they envision. The Israeli Army has reportedly been ordered to construct more and more outposts inside occupied Syria, with a goal of keeping Syrian forces at least 65 kilometers from the border between Syria and the already occupied Golan Heights, which is also Syrian territory under international law.
Israel was setting up outposts in the UNDOF region fairly early during this invasion, but the 65 km line takes it well beyond that. The army is also reportedly ordered to improve the infrastructure in Druze villages in the occupied area, which would mostly be in the Suwayda Governorate. This is hardly something that they’d be doing if this was a brief occupation.
Israel appears to be keen to try to sway the loyalty of Syria’s Druze minority toward their side, with reports from Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar that they have delivered 10,000 humanitarian aid packages to the Druze so far, with most of them sent to areas inside Suwayda.
Israel will also reportedly allow Druze who live inside the occupied Syrian territory to enter and work inside Israel starting next Sunday. There is also a plan for around 100 senior figures of the Syrian Druze community to visit a shrine in the occupied Golan Heights and meet with a spiritual leader. It is likely they are visiting a shrine in Majdal Shams, the largest Druze town in the region, which has a substantial number of important sites for the community.
Earlier this week, it was announced that a deal was reached between the Druze and the Syrian government to integrate Suwayda Governorate into state institutions, in keeping with the new ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in control of Syria. Under the deal, 300 HTS forces will be deployed to Suwayda, and some 600 Druze police that formerly worked under the Assad government will be reinstated to their positions.
Earlier this month, there were brief clashes between the HTS and Druze gunmen in Jaramana, in Rif Damashq. The fighting was at a checkpoint in town, and one person was reported killed and nine wounded. Beyond that, there has been little fighting between the HTS and the Druze since the HTS seized power in December.
Though the deal to integrate Suwayda into state institutions also suggests relatively good terms between the HTS and the Druze, recent HTS massacres of religious minorities in the northwest may be informing some of the concern on the Druze side, and Israel may be hoping to use that to drive a wedge between them.
It is unclear how Israel will react to the Suwayda deal, which has 300 HTS forces deployed to the governorate. If that includes areas within the “demilitarized” area imposed by Israel, which includes everything west of the city of Suwayda, they might use that as a pretext for more military action inside Syria.
