While the sudden regime change in Syria affected numerous regional powers, few face as much disruption as Russia. During the Assad era, Russia maintained very important Mediterranean bases in Syria, including Tartus, Russia’s only Mediterranean naval base. With Assad gone, what’s going to happen to Russia’s assets?
Reports are conflicting. Today, a new report quotes unnamed sources as saying that, in the wake of the takeover by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Russia intends to withdraw all of its forces, including those in Tartus and the major airbase in Hmeimin within the next month.
Russia hasn’t publicly announced that this is the case, but it has begun removing troops and equipment from some of its over 100 military sites in the county. Troops have been withdrawn from positions in Quneitra, as well as elsewhere in the country. About 10% of Russia’s presence in Syria has reportedly been removed in the last two days.
Over the weekend, conflicting reports suggested that Russia was “pulling back but not pulling out” from Syria. There were further reports last week Russia is in talks with the HTS about keeping at least the Hmeimin Air Base and the Tartus naval base.
Deputy FM Mikhail Bogdanov appeared to confirm those reports of ongoing talks. Russian officials have also been quoted as saying there is “no decision yet” on the future of their bases in Syria.
Whether or not Russia intends to fully withdraw from Syria in the next 30 days, it is scaling back considerably. Returning to full use of its bases will greatly depend on working out a deal with the HTS.
That may be easier said than done. The HTS used Ukrainian arms during the offensive that led to its power grab, and the group has been courting Western approval despite its historical and ideological ties to al-Qaeda. HTS’s internationally backed installation in Syria likely came with the presumption that Russia would not be allowed to remain.
In the meantime, reports are that Russian troops still in Syria are short on supplies. As these claims come from Ukrainian intelligence, however, it’s not clear they’re accurate. Maintaining a presence is likely to remain a challenge for Russia given the complex and unstable situation in Syria. Despite clear strategic reasons for Russia to retain its military bases, doing so in a country dominated by HTS might be more of a struggle than it’s worth for the Russians.
