Just over a week after taking Aleppo, the Syrian Islamist fighters led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have seized another major city. This time, they have taken Hama, Syria’s fourth largest city, which had not fallen during the protracted Syrian Civil War.
Senior commander of HTS forces, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, said tanks were used in the assault and that “hundreds of unjustly imprisoned individuals” were freed from the Hama Central Prison.
Last week HTS and allies stoked apprehension when they seized the northern city of Aleppo, the nation’s second largest. Syria’s Army has tried to slow their advance with counterattacks, but so far has had limited success.
The army confirmed it had redeployed out of Hama after reports of intense fighting, saying it did to so to avoid exposing civilians to battles. The army statement also reported suffering “heavy losses.”
The HTS offensive has been backed strongly by the Turkey-backed rebels from the country’s northwest. There have been multiple reports that Turkey is backing the offensive, and indeed that Turkey may even be the driving force in the recent push. HTS fighters seem increasingly well-equipped and confirmed as using tanks in their assault on Hama.
With Hama taken, many analysts say that the next major target would be the city of Homs. That would be an obvious next step, as HTS continues their offensive south along the major M5 highway from Aleppo. Homs is just 25 km south of Hama. If Homs fell too, it is likely the capital city of Damascus would also be under major risk.
Senior HTS commanders have made online posts announcing their gains, and one post called on the residents of Homs to rise up in revolution. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has also released a video statement threatening to expand the war into Iraq if the Iraqi militia coalition Hashd al-Shaabi gets involved.
There were reports earlier this week that Hashd al-Shaabi fighters had already entered Syria, though this was ultimately denied. The coalition of Shi’ite militias is substantial, and it would make sense they might back the Syrian government against Sunni Islamist factions.
The HTS was the creation of the merger of several Islamist forces, most notably Jabhat al-Nusra, which was Syria’s al-Qaeda-affiliated group. Though HTS has publicly disavowed al-Qaeda in an attempt to be more palatable to the West, they retain much of the same ideology.
Yet while HTS is labeled a terrorist organization broadly internationally, countries including Turkey and Israel are showing increased comfort in openly working with them against the Syrian government. The HTS has reportedly offered to open Israeli embassies in Damascus and Beirut if and when they conquer Syria and neighboring Lebanon.
No need to worry about a "caliphate" when the bad guys are the good guys.
You got that right.
We armed the jihadists to go into Russia to lure Russia into Afghanistan to their Vietnam (10 years).
Those same folks brought down the Twin Towers.
And, those same folks are now part of the army (s) of Israel and the U.S. of Atrocities.
The "chosen" and the "indispensable nation".
Ain't that grand???
Judt did an evac for 7.2 EQ. Home again home again…
Glad your safe
Pepe Escobar
@RealPepeEscobar
·
4h
BAGHDAD. TOMORROW.
"FMs from Syria, Iraq and Iran will be meeting.
Serious possibility of coordinating a joint military op.
After the fall of Hama, time to make a – serious – move."
How to remove the existential threat to mankind that is Israel? It would essentially deny Zionists from realizing the Greater Israel Project.
I'm not suggesting Israel will fall victim to a nuclear exchange. Russia, China, and Iran need to effectively end the forever Middle East conflicts with one or two strategic policy changes.
A joint rocket attack by Iran and Hezbollah would do a lot of damage in Israel.
I believe they are reluctant because Israel has the BOMB. More than one. And they will use it. More than one. And, will ignore our attempts at getting Israel not to do it.
Israel has given the Biden, and the world, the middle finger. Israel will say FU and do it. I am sure of it.
Despite the Zionist oligarchs in Russia and Israel, Russian President Vladimir Putin is the only leader capable of stopping the Israeli onslaught in Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. He may do so with a non-nuclear weapon.
The slow burn may be the Kremlin's modus operandi in Israel, Syria, and Ukraine.
Everyone was hedging, pontificating and spin doctoring about Afghanistan, Palestine and now Syria. The sky hasn't fallen since the Taliban have taken over. And don't listen to western media that will never report anything positive about a country they ravaged and have to convince themselves that it has to necessarily be worse without their intervention.
Similarly, Palestine was written off until October 7th when the weakest of the Palestinians besieged in Gaza showed the world Palestinians have agency. Even then the spin-doctors would have you believe that it was an Israeli false flag operation to give Israel casus belli to finish off what they began seven decades ago with the nakba. Now everyone is again talking about a state of Palestine, and if that doesn't happen it will be a one state solution without Israel.
And now in Syria, the Partisan factions and their big power patrons want to have us believe that the only choice is between Al Assad or Al Qaeda. No doubt it is difficult to accept that Middle Easterners have agency, can confound the plans of the superpowers and can actually serve the interests of the masses.
The sky has fallen on the shoulders of Afghan people, especially women. The sky has fallen on the backs of Palestinian people as well: Gaza strip has been literally destroyed and hundreds of thousands (probably) murdered. What is happening in Syria is extremely grave and there's no possible trivialization of it.
Thank you @luisaldamiz:disqus Agreed, it is nothing to trivialize. The problem is the disconnect between professed ideals we hold and reality, and the ability to effectuate change.
If I am following correctly, let's say Afghan women have been oppressed since they existed. Anyway, in 2001 the enlightened west decided Afghan women were oppressed and they were going to do something about it. So US leaders said the following:
October 7, 2001: In his address announcing military action in Afghanistan, President Bush stated:
"The oppressed people of Afghanistan will know the generosity of America and our allies. As we strike military targets, we will also drop food, medicine, and supplies to the starving and suffering men and women and children of Afghanistan."
GEORGE W. BUSH WHITE HOUSE ARCHIVES
December 12, 2001: At the signing of the Afghan Women and Children Relief Act, he remarked:
"For several years, the people of Afghanistan have suffered under one of the most brutal regimes in modern history; a regime allied with terrorists and a regime at war with women."
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE ARCHIVE
First Lady Laura Bush:
November 17, 2001: In an unprecedented presidential radio address, she emphasized:
"The fight against terrorism is also a fight for the rights and dignity of women."
GEORGE W. BUSH WHITE HOUSE ARCHIVES
Secretary of State Colin Powell:
March 8, 2002: During a reception marking International Women's Day, Secretary Powell stated:
"The recovery of Afghanistan must entail a restoration of the rights of Afghan women. Indeed, it will not be possible without them."
WIKIPEDIA
National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice:
October 2001: In a press briefing, Rice remarked:
"The Taliban's war against women is particularly repugnant. The systematic repression of women in Afghanistan is a terrible reminder of the brutality of the regime."
WIKIPEDIA
Where were the majority of Americans?
It took until 2019: A Pew Research Center survey found that 59% of U.S. adults felt the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting, with 36% believing it was.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER
Nearly 20 years earlier Polls showed:
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll (October 7–8, 2001): Approximately 88% of Americans supported U.S. military action in Afghanistan.
WIKIPEDIA
ABC News/Washington Post Poll (October 7, 2001): 94% of respondents approved of U.S. airstrikes against Afghanistan.
ICPSR
Where were the majority of Americans, feminists, progressives, Christ loving Christians, libertarians and others included for nearly a generation of this enlightened bastion of women's rights when Afghan women were being bombed by the US and its allies?
Since the slaughter wasn't being live broadcasted as is the current "genocide" and we didn't bother to keep a tally of the countless civilians we killed, I will simply say that we killed more Afghan women at weddings by drone than any number of Afghan women we hoped to save from "oppression."
We had a generation to free Afghanistan, stop the drug trade, develop the country and save its women from oppression. Either they're too inferior to be molded or we are warmongering hypocrites.
The "Sky has fallen" was meant to express the absolute worst thing that could happen to human beings. And that did happen, and is happening, to the people of Gaza. What we fail to recognize is that they have shouldered this catastrophic burden with dignity, resilience, hope, and faith. Yes we cry for them and we ache, but they are no dead than the 1,000,000 Algerians who paid the ultimate price to be free from 130 years of French colonial rule from 1954-1962. AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON….
The people (in this case Syrians) in the Middle East are paying the ultimate price because WE are forcing them into this neat little narrative that you either settle for Al Assad's regime or Al Qaeda. Once again Syrians are demonstrating that they chose neither. They want freedom. The least we can do is support them in that cause. The enemy out there is greed, lack of empathy, racism, extremism and ignorance. If we in the west think we are free from these very vices ourselves than it's easy to see why we think the sky is falling for others and we decide who the good and bad guys are, and we fail to look into the mirror or examine our own lives, mine included.
@SIU1968
Not going to dig all through History but just remember the progressive (first) and communist (later) governments of Afghanistan in the late 20th century. In those days Afghan women (and the Afghan peoples overall) were quite empowered… but Reagan decided that arming the Islamists was a good idea, not just in Afghanistan, they tried the same against Algeria (but failed ultimately).
Sadly it was not at all a one-time thing but it’s become a wider plan for the reactionarization and ghettoization of what they call the Greater Middle East. It is by design: destroying every chance of the Arab World (or the wider Muslim World) from progressing or unifying in any way.
The reason history is important for the Middle East is because it has roots in collective memory. Its Islamic foundations are still solid and in tact. Being connected to history gives them meaning, patience and resilience. The west cut itself from its past and is floating in "nowhere" land harming itself and everyone else in its reach.
You are correct about Afghanistan and openness to the west. Nearly all Muslim countries after WWII got in on the liberalization/democratization train led by the west. Palestinian women in the 50's and 60's were wearing mini skirts. The problem was that it wasn't meant to liberate them or make them equal, it was to keep them under control and position them to be consumers of western economic greed and its bizarre culture.
The Algerian revolution came about because the Algerians had the nerve to call for liberty, independence and an end to colonial rule. In May 1945 when France and the allies were celebrating their freedom from fascism, the poor Algerians naively thought it was for them too. Instead of being met with "Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité," they were met with a massacre that resulted in some 30k killed. That set the stage for the Algerian revolution.
For the westy, precisely because it plots to prevent Arab unification that Arabs are craving it.
That’s a conservative non-Marxist view of History and even of culture/tradition that I cannot even remotely agree with. In fact it’s the nonsensical post-socialist vision of people like Dugin, who really have little idea of what they’re talking about even.
There is one reason why the USA is winning the war: they are extremely pragmatic and they know well (most of them anyhow) that all that essentialist “cultural” nonsense is exactly that: nonsense. Sure: it makes for manipulable triggers and levers, for “wag the flag” rallying point, but ultimately it’s all KKK-like idiocy. The Mafia is ruthless and always wins. I suggest reading Deleuze & Guattari’s “Anti-Oedipus”: reaction is always doomed because what they try to rebuild is already dead or a dying husk, they look to Antiquity and the Middle Ages, to Landownerism-Warlordism-Patriarchy and that’s nothing but a zombie now. Even Biden is more alive than such reactionary ideas.
Even “Marxist” (post-Marxist) China has fallen for that and that’s a major weakness they have. But maybe they will manage to fall on their feet after all, especially now that they have to resort to partial re-nationalization of industry. What is clear to me is that Russia urgently needs to replace conservative and naive Putin by the return of the communists (the only real opposition), which are the only ones with a clear vision, which are people who would have never fallen for the Minsk trap or the deceit of Erdogan.
The secularist drive in the Muslim World, especially pan-Arabism, was not driven by the West: it was a reaction to colonialism (and to Israel very especially) and one after another toppled the neo-colonial regimes in Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya. With the upcoming fall of Syria much of that will have been reversed (the Western Empire has worked very hard for that, especially since Reagan and Bush Sr), although Yemen, Algeria (and struggling West Sahara) and hopefully the neo-Marxist revolutionary Kurdistan-plus will endure as beacons of Humanist hope.
How did China even manage to rebound after a very debilitating two centuries of semi-colonialism? Not by adhering to Confucianism but by means of the Cultural Revolution. Even the West did that to some extent (under capitalist conditions): all that hippyism and later punk movement were exactly that: cultural revolution, destruction of useless burdensome old values, cultural decoding.
At least speaking on the Palestinian issue which I am most familiar with the "Islamists" have always been closer to the Marxists than the secular/nationalists when it comes to resistance strategy and the reading of history. They both understand it but interpret it in radically different ways. When it comes to history I am not conservative or liberal. I believe it's both cyclical and linear. Where we will differ is over the role of religion. Obviously as a Muslim I will have biases, however, I have rational facts that support my position.
Euro-America sees any unity whether secular or religious as the biggest threat. The problem is "Islamists" see themselves in a different light. Whether one agrees or not is irrelevant. By preserving the Quran for 1400 years Muslims have learned to adapt and grow. Islam has not only provided a spiritual tradition but a historical tradition that incorporates, law, economics and science.
Through historical precedent, textual preservation and adaptability Islam has managed to survive colonialism and post modernism virtually intact and arguably gaining strength.
For example, a century ago in 1924 Muslims were approximately 180 million and about 10-12% of the world's population. This is just a rough estimate because the population count in many places is spotty. One hundred years later, Muslims are nearly 2 billion and represent nearly 25% of the world's population.
Now numbers alone are meaningless. However, when you consider that Muslims have had a continuum of religious authority for nearly 1400 years that was only interrupted by the fall of the Ottoman Caliphate in 1924, it exposes other factors that even a marxist would have to grapple with.
1) the west has so thoroughly undermined Christianity that in popular culture Islam is viewed as the last stand of religion for those hanging on to the concept of a greater being.
2) Unlike Christianity, Islam embraced the law and therefore has a secretion of precedent law society can use to provide structure for any given Islamic vision of society.
3) Regardless where one thinks the Quran came from it has been preserved and because it is still utilized it serves as a living document.
4) Because it has been preserved in one language, Arabic has the potential for a unifying effect. 22 Arab states and millions of memorizers of the complete quran by heart.
5) The Islamic conquests of the 7th century has till this very moment left a contiguous piece of real estate that is majority Muslim, rich in resources and strategically centered between the domineering "west" and the expanding China.
6) Islamic parties when they are not suppressed, cheated or killed have performed extremely well in democratic, free and fair elections in dozens of the 57 Muslim majority countries of the world.
7) As we both know from history, it is the military or armed resistance that either inherits or guarantees security. Afghanistan and Iraq are cases in point.
8) Finally, last but not least. The Holy Land and al Aqsa has grown exponentially as a rallying cry for the oppressed after October 7th.
Finally, yes America is pragmatic for the most part. However, the west is burning itself out while the Middle East has absorbed the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune for thousands of years. When America falls apart say in a couple of hundred years, the Quran and Muslims will still be around.
With due respect, I find the Quran boring and scary: it’s all about “fear God” and there’s no such “God” (where is “he”?, what is “he” doing for “his” own people even?, if we would have faith, shouldn’t we curse “God” for “his” evilness and betrayal of Humanity?). It’s thus all about “fear authority”, which is what “God” embodies as imaginary being, as imaginary Patriarchal, Landownerist (or livestock-owner, same thing) and Warlord being. I’d rather believe in Santa Claus, at least “he” makes children smile.
Anyway, this would lead us very off topic. The case is that Islamo-fascism is not substantively different from Christo-fascism or other fascisms with religious emphasis such as Zionism or Hindutva-ism. I was born under Francoism (the most Christo-fascist of all classical Western fascisms) and I can see the identity with all those Islamist regimes sponsored and manipulated by the USA via its proxies (or even directly). Capitalism is the Mafia and fascism is the KKK, and the Mafia does not only always defeat the KKK if challenged but also uses it, corrupts it, penetrates it and dumps it when not anymore useful for their greedy goals. When I say “the KKK”, I say the Papacy, the Evangelists, the Islamists and all the other fascists: they’re goons enthralled by their own death-wish of martyrdom for a greater cause that is not a cause even (what are they even fighting for) and definitely is not “great” at all (bullying the different one and the weaker one is petty and evil).
I am actually partly descendant of fascists: I know their ways, their stupidity (even when smart), their being used as cannon fodder and then dumped, their lack of proper materialist (class, economic) understanding of History and their waste of time and brainpower in false ideas such as “fatherland” or “God”. I also know of their classist hypocrisy (they pretend to be “good Christians”, charitative and inclusive, and then turn out to be closet racists and to disdain or even hate the weak and the meek, while loving the tyrant and the exploiter instead). It’s a slave mentality, an Uncle Tom ideology of subservience to the powerful and brutality against the weak, especially if the weak dares to challenge the system.
In the case of the Arab World it’s very clear that those Islamists, while occasionally being more “radical” (a word I use always in terms positive, unlike the media, because it means: “going to the root” of the problems) because of the situations they have to confront (Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen — most of them Shia anyhow), have been mostly used to keep the Arabs divided and powerless. Saudi Arabia is the archetypal Arab Islamist regime and what do they do but obey the USA almost blindly?! And that’s exactly what all those “Syrian” (mostly foreign mercenary) Islamists have been doing all this time too: serving the USA and Turkey and Israel in order to weaken and possibly destroy one of the last anti-Zionist bastions: Baathist Syria.
Which is their agenda? Imposing the headscarf, subjugating all other faiths and enforcing absolutist totalitarianism in general. There’s no hope in that: it’s totally worthless, and they won’t lift a finger against Israel anyhow, because that’s part of the Mafia that pays them to do the dirty job in the name of a “God” that doesn’t exist, that is nowhere to be seen.
There’s only one holy book: Reality. There’s only one God: Reality. All the rest is idolatry of words, of mouldy words written by men many centuries ago in their quest for power.
Thanks for your input regarding Francoism. I certainly does have a certain amount of overlap with authoritarian Islamism. But not just with Islamism. While the Ba’ath Party was (in Iraq) and is (in Syria) more secular than e.g. FET y de las JONS, there’s also some overlap there.
I find the Bible to be chilling in its butchery, particularly the Old Testament.
What beneficial god kills the "first born", even babies, and calls it OK?
What beneficial god drowns people, but preserves a few "chosen"?
What beneficial god rewards a man for having the husband of a woman he lusts for murdered (put him in the front of an assault, knowing full well he would die), because he (David)loved that god.
In the New Testament, Jesus, hidden, watched John beheaded, does nothing to intercede.
Saul becomes Paul, quite the misogynist.
The best part is the "chosen". It rules the Messianic Zionists in Israel.
Yes, I concur. The Bible is horrific. There’re no gods anyhow (other than ourselves as powerful smart and hopefully sensitive manifestations of Gaia, whose substance we are, and possibly also the Sun, whose energy we feed on ultimately) and what you read there are just a compilation of ancient legends anyhow.
Interestingly the author of which is probably the first Gospel, Marcion of Sinope (his is very similar to Mark, both may well be the same real life character) argued that the God of the OT and the God of Jesus were different beings, however he was excommunicated and had to retract. Disclaimer: I’m not Christian but was raised as one, so I may find Marcion’s argument somewhat compelling in the dreamworld of false confusing beliefs (my bias). Marcion was anyhow Paulist, so he was not yet there where we are, no matter what we may think.
We will leave that discussion for another time perhaps. Suffice it to say that we are all slaves to something or someone. I find genuine freedom in devoting myself to an unseen god, rather than following another human being, status, money, sex or any of the "…isms" out there. I am well aware of how some may view the Quran.
Can you point to any time in history where we had some form of justice or security along the lines that your worldview advocates? If not can you give a brief synopsis of how and if we can get to that point in reality?
Unseen and powerless. We are all slaves to biology and physics but not necessarily to fantasies. Someone mocked another for worshiping the Sun a mere gravitational-nuclear plasma fireball and this one replied: at least my God is real.
We did have primitive communism in Prehistory and some modicum of peasant social-democracy even in the Middle Ages (Vasconia first, Switzerland later). We did have quite decent real socialism in the 20th century, it still survives in Cuba and is trying to re-emerge with improved parameters in NE Syria and other areas under Kurdish influence. Just lamenting/praying won’t help, that’s for sure. In my Basque Country, which was the one to stop the Muslim unchecked advance, because they had something to fight for, they say: “ezina ekinez egina”, i.e. “the impossible gets done by action”, which is not dissimilar to some Chinese proverbs like the one of “a journey of a thousand li begins with one step”.
Never really felt the need to defend what has been obvious for mankind since our existence. These are questions human beings have to grapple with for themselves. The logic of the Quran requires thoughtful consideration Q (52:35-36) "Were they created from nothing, or did they create themselves? Or did they create the heavens and the earth? But they are sure of nothing."
Similarly, we are ever going out further in the universe seeking water because we know it's the essence of life and one comes across Q (21:30) "Have those who disbelieved not considered that the heavens and the earth were a joined entity, and We separated them and made from water every living thing? Will they then not believe?"
On my question though, I meant a broad example that served the most amount of human beings.
Islam is misunderstood especially when it comes to governance. It's not a theocracy in the western sense. It is not the religious class or religious scholars who rule. Unlike Iran where the clerical class rules, it's civil society that comes together over principles. Islam accepts and rejects aspects of capitalism and communism but is neither. If people are sick they need healthcare and it shouldn't be a commodity for greedy capitalists. Private wealth is encouraged in Islam but regulated by the prohibition of interest so that money is real and not assessed out of thin air. Both these aspects make for a more fair society.
It’s not about the Quran or the Bible or the Ramayana, it’s about Science! Trojan War may have happened, as legends often have a kernel of truth, but we can only get to know (if at all) via Science. Reality is the only holy book and Science is how you can read it, all the rest is legends and speculations which may or not be real.
It seems as if you never encountered a Realist (atheist, agnostic, pantheist) ever before in your life, it seems like you’ve lived in some sort of secluded monastery (or, as they say, “under a rock”).
We were not “created”, Science has that very clear: we EVOLVED (“created ourselves”, sorta, in the struggle for survival, for existance, for our own life and that of our offspring).
I can see the idea of the Umma but, as it is in reality, it is way too regulated by false beliefs never proven by Science (all the opposite) and by the ignorance induced by such erroneous beliefs. Your Umma is thinking “inside the box”, a very narrow box, more democratic communism is needed and thus the Kurds are right (many of them are Sunni Muslims, mind you, but they are thinking “outside the box” anyhow, let us all learn from them).
An Egyptian poet, Omar Khayyam, once wrote: “If the Muslim would understand Islam, he would become a kafir”.
The U.S. has no "culture". Too young to develop a "culture".
It has borrowed culture, shaped it, sold it as "U.S. culture".
Basically, the U.S. is a settler, colonial entity that has supported others like it. It is why our government is OK with genocide in Gaza, settler activity in the West Bank, and has supported other colonial nations, including supporting the French in Vietnam, leading to our entrance in a civil war, the deaths of 58,000 young Americans, 1.5 million Vietnamese.
And so, our government does not see anything wrong with genocide in Gaza. At all.
The USA has a settler culture of English (and more broadly European) roots. Cultures are reformed and reinvented as we go, just because the dominant culture’s history is locally deeper or shallower it doesn’t make the overall culture to vanish, nor to persist beyond what is possible either. Some people (right wingers primarily) over-emphasize culture (tradition), unaware of its fragility. This leads to ideas such as the Old World being more “cultural”, when it’s not. In fact it’s places like Europe (France, Russia) where “anti-culture” (revolutions) have flourished. We could extend that to Renaissance Italy or Mao’s China, our European and to a large extent global culture is not based on religion and Middle Ages’ iconography but on Robespierre unveiling Goddess Reason some two centuries (plus) ago rather.
It is.
The entities behind it, the same entities responsible for what happened in Libya, the "chosen", Israel, and "the indispensable nation", the U.S. of Atrocities.
"it was an Israeli false flag operation"
It was. However, it was also the opportunity for the Axis to destroy Israel which the Axis has been planning for twenty five years or more.
Again, it's not a binary "either-or" situation. Both sides "trapped" each other.
I agree with the rest of your post.
It is normal that we pay due attention to state actors especially in war and when the populations of the state actors are in support of the war effort. Given that Hamas is not a state actor, Sinwar gambled on something big. Despite all the slaughter and what is still to come, Hamas put something into motion that was not planned for by Netanyahu and company.
The completion of the nakba was always a long term Zionist strategy manipulated and waiting for the ripe situation. It came in the form of Oct. 7th. However, it was not pre meditated on the part of netanyahu and company. Its timing suggests it was not expected while Netanyahu a month earlier gave a speech at the UN showing a map w/o Palestine and writing off the Palestinian cause as if it did not exist. In addition, Israel was on the brink of normailzing with SA.
Similarly, initial reports indicate Iran although obviously prepared for confrontation with Israel and the US was not tipped of before the operation was conducted. Hezbollah being too close in proximity had to react quickly and took early advantage by forcing the Israeli settlers to flee the north of Palestine.
Whatever gray zone area one wants to call it is fine. The responsible Israeli leaders at the top were caught off guard. It was a form of intelligence failure based on confirmation bias, warning fatigue, anchoring effect, complacency trap, strategic surprise, signal to noise problem, the Cassandra Effect, cognitive bias, or anything else one wants to describe it.
In addition, one should not underestimate the desperation, ingenuity and motivation that made oct 7th a huge success as a military raid. The Hamas fighters themselves were caught off guard as to the extent that Israeli defenses collapsed. They collapsed because they weren't prepared and certainly not as motivated as the young Palestinain resistance.
Those fighters probably lived through a few "mowings of the lawn" and the trauma it visited upon those child prisoners explains the long term, patient, preparation and execution of the mission. They were ready to carry out their mission and pay the ultimate price. The mission was to a) infiltrate the border defenses at several points b) attack military installations c) confiscate military intelligence accumulated on the Gaza front d) bring back military personnel for exchange of Palestinian prisoners.
The other things that happened e.g., the Israeli withdrawal, the rave concert, the crossfire, the hannibal directive, the taking of Israeli "civilians," the involvement of other armed groups in Gaza and the civilian infiltration was a result of Israeli failure.
Finally, I agree its not either or. Obviously what is happening in Syria is coming as a surprise to the Iranians and ultimately for the Israelis because they want to see their enemies weakened but what they don't want to see is the battlefront increase in scope and intensity from non state actors and points they have not anticipated. They are struggling already despite ironclad US and western backed support. Middle Easterners have agency.
I do not buy the ""Hamas put something into action that was not planned for by Netanyahu and company".
It was known that the Mossad knew of the plans for a year.
It was known that the breakout was planned for a religious holiday in Israel proper.
It was known that a certain base was to be attacked, that several days before the action date approval was given for the rave concert to be located right on the path leading to that base, and that the young Hamas fighter that broke out stumbled onto the rave.
The very next day, 8Oct, Israel began the bombing of Gaza.
Natanyahu had his own people killed by Hamas fighters, and, Israeli Apache copter pilots, Israeli tanks, Israeli soldiers, and execution of the "Hannibal Directive".
And our congress gives the piece of sh*t 58 standing ovations. Whores.
Some of what has been said is not mutually exclusive. The claim being made is Israel knew how, when, where and let it happen.
Although they knew Sinwar was training in preparation for an attack, and although they were receiving the intelligence reports, in their arrogance and stupidity they were caught off guard.
The western mind has this knack for depriving non westerners of agency and interpreting colossal failures as an internal failure of the mighty American, Israeli and/or European. Never the resilience, ingenuity, faith or cunning of their opponent.
Facts don't bother me, arrogance does.
It reads like Syria is going to be partitioned. I wonder what Assad is waiting for? Russia and Iran already said they would help if the Assad government asked them to. While US/Israeli/Turkish backed Al-Qaeda militants make territorial gains. Assad seems like he's twiddling his thumbs. NUTS
IMHO the Syrian Army's commanders were bribed (as in the ISIS explosion of 2014 or in the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2020). Northing else explains what's happening. I'm not even sure if Assad is still alive TBH.
The result will most likely not be "partition" however: Turkey wants it all.
Russia will not allow it. And Erdogan can't afford to take on Putin directly. If Erdogan is betting on the US to "save" him – like Israel is – he will find he's on the wrong side.
Russia can only do that much. They once had Surovikin and Wagner in Syria but nowadays they only have air force and naval detachments (which they’re partly evacuating as we speak). By the time the bear wakes up from its winter slumber, Damascus will have probably fallen.
Erdogan is completely in the US pocket now, the Kremlin has been very naive about the perfidous Sultan.
I agree.
I also believe that Putin, et al in Russia, understand the snake just a little more. Russia will not trust Erdogan again.
Erdogan has made his deals with the hydra, Israel and the U.S., and I believe he thinks he can slither into Syria and steal for himself.
Israel and the U.S. have his number.
More oil will flow to Israel. More stolen oil will flow to the U.S.
Erdogan does not understand. We all know that he is a snake. He thinks he may have the road to milk and honey, however, he has to do what the U.S. and Israel tells him to do, or the CIA and Mossad will rev things up so as to depose him.
Make deals with demons, his life is at stake.
It’s not about oil (Syria was never a major producer anyhow) but about geostrategy and destroying for the time being any hope for the Arabs. This is directed against Iran primarily and Russia secondarily (China also but China doesn’t want to fight even). The USA is winning the “crusade” for the Levant with non-Christian fanatic goons as cannon fodder, can you imagine?! I can: it’s happening as we speak, the fascists have reached the outskirts of Damascus from the South, from Jordan, that sturdy Trojan horse, already. Blinken is enjoying his Pompey moment before he goes back to the Straussian cave.
To summarize Pepe and Nima's insight, the Al Queda linked "rebels" are recruited mostly from Central Asia, funded by Quatar, and Turkey, intel provided by US and Israel, and their current success aided by Ukrainian drone strategy and advisors (NATO), while the Syrian Army is undermanned, eventually Iran and Russia will get involved, what Pepe calls "the first Brics War"
Pepe Escobar's "Forever War" emphasis caught my attention.
I'm not expecting Donald Trump's second presidential tenure to emphasize a peace construct.
Does the Kremlin plan to operate on one and possibly two military fronts?
What choice is there?
Whatever it takes to make NATO, Washington, and Jerusalem to heel. If possible, short of a nuclear exchange.
There's also economics: Western economies are in free fall. This may seem a too-long game, but is really the heart of the matter. Our Polscum 'liders' are ciphers. The real power resides with the Billionaire class, almost to a man NeoConNazis, and, as critical, parasites who rely on Neoliberalism to supply their hosts.
The ultimate mind game between President Putin, Biden, and Netanyahu would involve an Oreshnik strike or two on Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or all three.
To some degree, this assumes Moscow and Tehran prefer to disengage or truncate extended wars.
How would Netanyahu react without invoking the Samson Option? The mealymouthed leader would be at a loss for words. Israel's existentialism would take center stage, so I believe he would refrain from initiating Armageddon.
I suspect events in Syria would change without much prompting from Mr. Putin. This assumes that events in Syria are rapidly going against Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian Arab Army without significant reinforcements from Russia and Iran.
We don't know all the details regarding Ukraine and Syria.
And the “Western” billionaire class?? Will they unleash Fat Man 2 before submitting to the destruction of their class??
I associate the billionaire class with global depopulation through a new viral epidemic and a more lethal mRNA vaccine; together with millions with COVID-related heart issues. Global hyperinflation is a consideration that will impoverish billions.
These events may preclude a Fat Man II or nuclear weapon exchange. Globalist billionaires and depopulation advocates want us dead, but not through nuclear exchanges from two or more nations. At least not until they've been forewarned and entered their survival bunkers.
Yes, but CoVid/Zoonotic weaponry has already been spent. China, Russia, etc. are onto it. Very likely “Gaza” is the NeoConNazi template for solving the climate crisis, but you still have to be able to militarily subdue Russia & China first. And still requires forced starvation, exposure, etc.
Pepe Escobar I admire for his intuition and spirit. But he slides into romanticism, reacts too hastily to events, falls occassionally for propaganda. I forgive him. His heart is in right place.
When was the last time you heard Fake News refer to Hamas and Hezbollah as "rebels"? https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1864825004019585497 Rebels
When Hamas and Hezbollah started blowing themselves up against innocent civilians.
Was Charlie Kirk speaking on behalf of the US government?
When Israel ran off 700,000 Palestinians from lands the Palestinians had lived on for hundreds of years, perpetrating massacres, such as that at Dier Yassin, then locked down Gaza with an occupation that has lasted 75 years, then a brutal blockade that lasted 17 years, the whole of Gaza (20 miles long, 5 miles wide) referred to by former military and politicians in Israel as a "concentration camp'.
Seventy-five years of occupation. No hope of venturing out to explore opportunities. Unemployment at 60%. Constant raids by the IDS. Palestinian children murdered (from the year 2000 to 7Oct, 2300 Palestinian children had been murdered by the IDF). Olive fields destroyed, the flooded with sewage. Random detaining of Palestinians, some as young as 14.
At the time of the Deir Yassin massacre, Israel didn’t exist.
When the depraved Israelis and their backers cause so much harm that Hamas and Hezbollah "blow themselves up" you have to ask the question why?
I read about this yesterday night and it seems clear to me after this that Baathist (secularist, pan-Arabist, anti-Zionist) Syria is most likely to collapse, being replaced by a neo-ISIS caliphate (emirate, whatever) right on the Mediterranean. Even Israelis are worried, although these fascist thugs obviously obey their best friends: Turkey and the USA and will pose no immediate threat to the Zionist colony. In fact this fascist victory actually weakens the so-called "axis of Resistance" a lot.
That is a very transparent goal. For sure. But it may vbe a Hail Mary pass. Will see if it suceeds.
A “Hail Mary pass”? I fail to understand the expression (I know it refers to a Christian prayer but that’s about it).
Yes, the “Hail Mary” is a Catholic prayer.
In American football, a “Hail Mary” is a play that’s a metaphorical last, desperate prayer for a miracle — usually a very long pass attempt with only a few seconds left on the clock by the team that will lose the game unless that one play results in a score.
Just like an on-side kick. To gain possession again after scoring, while still losing in final minutes.
Not going to happen. The Axis forces are gathering. It doesn't matter how far the insurgents get – even to Damascus, there will be an Axis regrouping and influx of support from both the Big Guys – Russia and Iran – but also from Hezbollah, Iraq, and the Houthis.
The insurgent army simply isn't that big – maybe 40,000 from what I've heard. They can easily be outnumbered and outgunned.
The only question is whether Turkey and the US will enter the war directly. That leads directly to Russia and Iran entering the war to an even greater degree than necessary to defeat the insurgents.
In my "Armageddon in the Middle East" Substack series, I did not foresee the US and Turkey launching this operation, but I did foresee Syria being involved as a consequence of the US attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. The end result will be the same: Russia will get involved as will Iran.
The bottom line: Turkey can not beat Russia, and the US can not beat Iran and Russia. And Israel isn't even a factor outside Gaza and Lebanon and has already shown they can't beat Hezbollah or Hamas.
We’ll see but the advance of Erdogan’s Islamo-fascists has been brutal. This is a well prepared operation (and surely organized by the White House ultimately): the Syrian Army was infiltrated and bribed and that’s why they did not even properly fight against the Islamist advance, just as the Afghans soldiers willing to fight were thrown under the bus by their treacherous commanders in 2020 and just as the Iraqi Army was largely absorbed by ISIS in 2014… leading to US return to Iraq (and partly to Syria) in 2016 under the pretense of “anti-ISIS coalition”.
Really nobody could foresee this attack unless one can read the devious mind of Erdogan. Definitely Russia didn’t see it coming (again, they keep comitting the same error of misplaced trust in the wrong people, even if they keep being betrayed).
Turkey alone can’t beat Russia but that’s why nazi Ukraine exists for: to keep the bear busy. Also Turkey is not alone: they have fully submitted to the USA and they’ve been cooperating with Israel and other US vassals in the region (such as Jordan) for more than a decade already.
The USA is actually beating Iran and Russia to one extent or another by means of deceit and “divide et impera”. Multipolarity is a chimera and the Eurasian powers are not united enough to actually defeat the US Empire in their hydra-like manifestation of many proxy wars, timed almost precisely. Russia would need many years to completely defeat Ukraine (they want regime change, de-NATO-ization and not just some territorial gains), Iran has magnificent missile power but can’t reach the Levant without regime change in Iraq first (which is not happening, Iraq remains under US control mostly) and has been deceived by Saudi Arabia (also toying with China and Russia) into relative passivity.
Erdogan is a snake.
Why would Israel be worried? Was Israel worried in 1967 when Israel attacked the U.S.S. Liberty, their jet pilots machine gunning American sailors in the lifeboats and in the water?
The piece of sh*t President, Lyndon Johnson, called back the U.S. Navy fighter jets that were on their way to engage.
He didn't want to "embarrass" our ally, Israel.
So. Why would Israel be worried about anything?
Tiresome. HTS is and was British outfit. British soecial ops show up when needed as “White Helmets”, the same hellmets that were setting up “chemical attacks” cleaned uo after head chopping binges. All management and supplies via British sovereign territory in Cypress. ISIS was set up by US intellugence working with then the Interior Minister of Saudi Arabia, later Crown Prince until deposed in June 2017. After which Saudis lukked the plug on funding, Al-qaeda funded by Saudi-Pakistani collaboration starting with funding of Madrassas (schools) and Taliban (students). Those “students” were given the goal to remove Kabul regime. Name Al-Qaeda – the Base — came later, and Soudis sent their iwn Bin Laden, to organize tribes into a cohesive pro-Western entity. He failed. After 9/11, any excuse was needed to occupy Afghanistan directly, pacify it, and establish a beach head against Russia and China. Infiltrate Central Asia. Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda wers convenuent scapegoats as Arabs did not have much luck uniting tribes. US came with carrots and sticks, but ulimately failed to pacify natives and gave up on beach head idea.
No “islamist”, salafi, ISIS, Alqaeda, IS Korasan or HTS, IKIP or any other such neat name convention-based entities are independent agents.
They came to life by someoe funding every aspect of their existence. Food, water, vehicles, shelter, salaries, computers, fuel, weapons. Their extremist ideoligy is attractive to many powerless, hurt, angry and displaced people. They also needed to eat, and have their familues fed. The uniqueness of these ideologies is two fold — religion and focus on INTERNAL enemies. The ideology claims that is is not foreign invasions or Israel that are the problem — but their weak and corrupt governments. Ut was not hard to get recruits from among many displaced be that in Afghanistan or Middle East.
We will find out that Turkey’s role is not what is touted to be. Turkey since Astana Afreements has made progress in peeling off many grouos from the clutches of HTS. But it stalled, as in several instances keaders if those groups were either assasinated or outright bombed by US under pretext of bombing Al-Qaeda or ISIS. Even though there is no ISIS since Saudi support ended in 2017, all the “ISIS” activity is funded from Western siurces. There has not been any Al-Qaeda since the Base, the training facikity set up by Saudis and US was bombed when US invaded Afghanistan.
We are still conveniently using these brand names any time a group was needed to accoplush a task. Like in South Yemen, for example.
Turkey lost control of demilitarized zone. And HTS took control if alm foid coming into Idlib, keeping its population hostage. Idlib is more than terririst collection site. It population needs must be adressed but not whike HTS is in contol.
Remains to be seen just how much more obscene our support for HTS grows. Interview with Al-Joulani! Humanizing a despicablc figure — this is sinking pretty low. We must all have a total memory liss to forget the video of an eight year old trusting child in the clutches of a terririst abot to cut his head off. Some of us cannot forget.
What happened to the greatest army in the world?
Russia cannot defend anything anymore.
Invading neighboring countries has become very pricey for Russia.
Pray for Russia, my comrade. It looks like they need all the help they can get.
The special operation was to protect the Russian-speaking UKRAINE CITIZENS in Donbas.
Russia had its pants down, so to speak, placing trust in the snake. Erdogan.
I don't think they will do so again.
Iran has the instruments to help Syria. So does Russia. I would guess that Russia may be considering actions, big actions, in Ukraine, to end things quickly, to turn attention to Syria. What may govern Russia's actions is the news that the "rebels" had captured S-400s and had sold them to Ukraine (funded by the U.S.).
It would appear that we are OK with blowing up the region. Russia cannot allow that. Iran cannot allow that.
Both have to come their senses, use the advanced rocketry in their possession.
A captured Islamist said this has been planned for two years. That would mean, from after the Russia-Ukraine war started.
The Islamists are using a huge number of Ukrainian drones. Zelensky has in the past offered them drones in exchange for Islamists coming to Ukraine to fight.
Israel has now attacked militias, always justifying this by calling them "Iran-backed militias."
U.S. artillery has destroyed Syrian vehicles, including tanks. (Though they name a kind of tank that Syria doesn't have.)
U.S.-backed Kurds have attacked Syrian outposts.
Israel's air force threatened an Iranian plane with supplies, forcing it to turn back.
Sorry for your loss and Glory to Ukraine.
Prior to the special operation by Russia to protect the Russian-speaking UKRAINIAN CITIZENS, in Donbas, Ukraine was known as one of the most corrupt countries.
The government formed after the deposing of the elected leader, is loaded with neo-NAZI worshipers of Bandera, who harken to the good old days of killing Jews and Soviet soldiers.
Of course, we, the indispensable nation, do not bother with trivialities. Russia has resources that we would like to have. Ukraine also.
We are not alone. Tel Aviv has aspirations.
At the time Russian forces invaded Ukraine, the people of the Donbas hadn’t been UKRAINIAN CITIZENS for nearly eight years — Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from Ukraine in 2014.
Furthermore, the violence in the Donbas had been steadily decreasing for years, such that in the year before the Russian invasion civilian deaths had gone down to low double digits per year.
The purpose of the invasion was to turn around the obviously lost Russian proxy war in the seceded Donbas republics.
Whereever there are resources like OIL, the U.S. seeks to destroy the nation that has it.
The nation in our crosshairs may not be a threat to us, but that does not matter. We need to look after our "interests", as Bill Clinton explained it.
Assad is a reluctant leader, an eye surgeon, who was happily plying his trade in the UK, until his brother, the heir apparent in Syria, was killed in an accident.
He is not our enemy. Fate has sealed his future. Using the very same people who bombed the twin towers and the Pentagon, we, and Israel will see him dead, his country in turmoil, just like Libya.
The U.S. aside, all roads to world chaos leads to Tel Aviv.
I hate to be so simplistic, and I am sure I will be pounced on for my statement. One cannot ignore the 58 standing ovations Netanyahu received when he addressed congress, calling Americans who were protesting the genocide perpetrated in Gaza, "useful idiots".
I would suppose that he would call the Americans who perished on the U.S.S. Liberty "useful" idiots as well.
THIS is what an Anti-War US President sounds like:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/113612147757280297
That’s what a former US president who pretended to be antiwar while massively escalating in Syria, then pretending he was going to withdraw, then not withdrawing, sounds like when he’s about to do it all over again.
What part of: "THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!" don't you understand?
I understand all of that completely — and completely agree with it.
The question is whether Trump doesn’t understand it, doesn’t mean it, or both.
He loves hearing little voices in his head and repeat what the voices are saying, that the voices tell him things that he has never thought of before………….great things. the greatest things…………
President Trump basically explains why we fomented a costly War between Russia and Ukraine. We needed to get the Russians out of the Middle East so we could have a “regime change” in Syria.
Annnnndddd, steal more OIL, said the peacemaker. You know, Mr. "Drill baby, drill"……
Annnndddd, withdrew from the INF treaty as well as the Open Skies treaty, sanctioned Russia, provided Ukraine with offensive weapons.
Sucha peacemaker.
Using Terrorists to achieve geopolitical goals is unacceptable—–Russia.
https://www.rt.com/russia/608890-lavrov-syria-using-terrorists-geopolitical/
Correction: the terrorist arm of Israel and the United States captured Hama and threaten Damascus.
No thanks to Iran and Russia.