Reuters reported on Wednesday that some of the separatists in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region don’t think the chance of all-out war breaking out in the region is imminent.
The report cited political and military sources in the region, including Andrei Purgin, a politician and the co-founder of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), which declared independence, along with the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), in the wake of the 2014 US-backed coup in Kyiv.
Purgin said he didn’t expect any significant changes for now in the low-level conflict that has essentially been at a stalemate since 2015. But he does foresee a major shift over the next six months. “This will either be a final peace, or there is a very high probability of very serious escalations,” he said.
Reuters also cited two unnamed “separatist sources” that said they don’t expect a major military escalation until the Spring. “The time for diplomacy has not yet passed,” one source said.
Amid all the hype about Russia’s military movements, DPR and LPR officials have been warning that Ukraine is preparing an offensive in the Donbas based on the deployment of military assets near the conflict zone. Back in December, Russia said Ukraine had deployed half of its army, about 125,000 troops, to the Donbas.
If there is an escalation in the Donbas war, regardless of who the aggressor is, the US is poised to blame Russia. The US has claimed — without offering a shred of evidence — that Moscow is plotting a “false flag” operation in the Donbas or a “propaganda video” that shows a fake attack to justify an invasion of Ukraine.
The military and intelligence staff of the LDNR have been reporting on regular updates to Ukraine’s forces at the contact line recently. So that implied something was being prepared. Plus Ukraine is running drills this month – along with apparently everyone else in the world.
As Alexander Mercouris has pointed out, the whole thing hinges on Nordstream 2. The window to prevent that from happening will end by sometime between July and September. So Ukraine has to make a move by then, because once NS2 is online the US won’t have leverage over Germany any more to kill it.
Also, “spring” is like four weeks away? What’s the definition of “imminent”?
Yes, the last thing the US cares about is Ukraine.
Example from the Russian SVR:
Ukrainian intelligence, military prepare provocations in Donbass — intelligence head
https://tass.com/world/1401167
More:
OSCE SMM reports over 8,000 ceasefire violations in Donbass in 2022 – Russian OSCE envoy
https://tass.com/politics/1401297
>Feb 4 — Russia has been warned that a major NATO-supported attack by Ukraine is imminent, according to State TV in Moscow.
>Feb 2 — Ukraine intends to insert assault forces behind the lines of Donbass, LPR’s militia says
According to People’s Militia spokesman Ivan Filiponenko, Ukraine’s military and political leadership continues active preparations for its aggression in Donbass
>Jan 30 — War-weary residents lament homes lost in eastern Ukraine shelling – Destruction of homes in a small village near frontlines of conflict in eastern Ukraine raises fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis.
>Jan 24 — Dmitry Peskov said a huge buildup of Ukrainian forces on the Donbass line of contact indicates Kiev is preparing for an attack.
>Jan 20 — Jan 20 – DAN. Ukraimian armed forces are preparing sabotage attacks in the DPR, the deputy chief-of-staff of the Republican People’s Militia Eduard Basurin said. – “We have received reliable reports saying that Ukrainian command prepares sabotage attacks in the People’s Republics close to the line of contact.”
>Dec 1 — Russia says Ukraine has deployed half its army to Donbass conflict zone
>Nov 25 — Ukrainian military uses tanks in drills in Donbass-controlled area – As the statement reads, the servicemen demonstrated “high skills” and are ready to accomplish missions