Another day in Yemen’s contested Maarib has the Saudis reporting another 105 Houthis killed in airstrikes. The big news may be the Houthis gaining yet more territory.
The Houthis confirmed having captured the Jubah and Jabal Murad Districts, two more districts on the fringe of Maarib City. Between those, and the ones taken earlier this week, the Houthis have the city almost entirely surrounded, and have taken parts of the city itself.
It’s hard to see how the casualties are so disproportionate when the signs on the ground are that the Houthis are effectively winning, and are on the verge of taking the city, the last part of northern Yemen they don’t control.
On the other side, the Saudis and their allies control less and less territory, and all they’ve got to tout as war progress is the body count. The war has clearly been a failure, and the question is if the Saudis will attempt to extricate themselves with a negotiated settlement.
More proof you need boots on the ground. Saudis bombing the hell out of the Houthis the last month to no avail.
Obese incompetent soldiers in the employ of house of Saud will only get in the way and people who will act as mercenary r busy in their own lands
It is reported that the Saudis have thousands of mercenaries from Africa and South America, but of course those killing for money are less motivated than those defending their homes.
I recall that the puppet regime in Kabul also used to trumpet massive and highly fantastical body counts, even as their control of Afghanistan was dissolving like a sugar cube in boiling water.
Something is coming down. The exaggerated numbers are meant to allow for “negotiation from the position of strength”.
It is still murky as to what deal is in the works.
There are still several neuralgic points.
1. Hodeidah, status of pro-Saudi faction there
2. Taiz — a city an environs once fully within North Yemen.
3. Status of Aden — who controls it?
4. Between Aden and Taiz, who controls it?
5. Are UAE troops really gone from South?
6. Secessionists vs. tribal South, ststus
7. Who controls islands?
8. Status of Straits?
There is a question of US involvement in the conflict; what is at stake?
Major change in the region — the watershed — is Iran-Saudi rapprochement and Saudi-Egyptian membership in Russia-China led SCO.
Yemen issue is now discussed in a different forum, from different perspective. A fully expected change in Sudan is now developing, with no assurance US will get an upper hand.
There is a power struggle in Ethiopia. These changes in combination, along with Chinese ensconcing in Djibouti— will decide US decision on Bab Al-Mandeb straits.
While Mareb standoff is coming to a close — unless there is an understanding with Houthis on other issues, it is hard to see this end soon.
But if there is a deal with Houthis — then energy goes into settling South. Tough job, if UAE is involved. Saudis and UAE are not buddies, as usually assumed. Have not been for a while.