The Afghan government had been losing ground to the Taliban for weeks, and provincial capitals were starting to be contested. This weekend, the floodgates opened and the Taliban rapidly overran a number of key cities, seizing no less than five provincial capitals.
With the military pushing into Helmand to try to chase the Taliban out of Lashkar Gah, a provincial capital they took over a week ago, the Taliban forces in the north seized a large amount of northern Afghanistan.
It took just a really bad weekend for the Taliban to end up seizing Sheberghan, Sar-e Pul, Taloqan, and even the strategically important city of Kunduz. Meanwhile, the Taliban fighting in Helmand spilled over into neighboring Nimruz, and captured the capital of Zaranj.
That’s a lot of losses in not much time. It’s not clear the Afghan government can even conceivably try to counter all these new losses, and instead seems to be focusing on a new propaganda push, focusing on selling the idea that losing five capitals in two days isn’t that big a deal.
Losing all these cities, including Kunduz and the already fallen Lashkar Gah, is already a big deal, and with the Taliban pushing on places like Herat, more could be lost. Afghan forces are off-balance and the Taliban is showing surprising confidence.
The US is throwing more air support behind the government, but so far that’s centered on Helmand, destroying a school and a health clinic and killing at least 20 civilians. That, needless to say, is not a productive counter-attack.
These aren’t just big losses but decisive ones. The government’s downplaying of the losses aside, some of the capitals fell with virtually no resistance, and where fighting did take place, the Taliban still won overwhelmingly.
That’s not to say that there is likely to be an immediate continuation of this string of losses. The Taliban tends to push most of its advantages over the weekend, and then consolidate for a little while.
The Taliban issued a statement later Sunday saying there had been no deal on a ceasefire yet, and warning the US against trying any further intervention. The Biden Administration has ordered B-52 bombers into the mix, and past comments suggest they’re going to continue to intervene to prevent a total Taliban victory.
More American bombing and air strikes will accelerate the Talbans progress in Afghanistan.
Its their country – let the Afghanis sort this out themselves.
It’s none of the US’s business.
US air strikes must stop.
My entire life I’ve been amazed to watch as thousands sometimes hundreds of thousands of people flee from their homes during wars, often ones fought only with small arms. And often, the one’s fleeing outnumber the ones attacking hundreds to one. Would it not be better to simply give them all guns and that way instead of fleeing they could just say no we will stay here and you stay over there or we will shoot you? It’s not like when a massive army with tanks supported by artillery and an air force are bombing.
I’m not actually advocating for anything, more just thinking out loud. Would all these villagers be fleeing if they themselves were all armed? Maybe they don’t want to live under a corrupt regime from Kabul and won’t join the army to fight for it, but why wouldn’t they fight for their own cities, that’s if they don’t want to be ruled by the Taliban? Seems like with all the money we spent training a ghost army again, that this option might have been a lot cheaper and more effective.
Of course if they were armed they wouldn’t put up with our corrupt puppets from Kabul either, so there is that.
When they tell you the numbers fleeing, they aren’t mentioning the numbers staying. In these Afghan provinces, hundreds of thousands might flee, but millions more are staying home. The Taliban have a lot of supporters in Afghanistan.
When it comes to defending your home – untrained civilian militias are not very effective combat units – and even if they do beat of the Taliban advance, they might still lack food and water, and so their families might need to flee the combat arena even if the Taliban are defeated.
The best way to understand refugee flows is not as people fleeing an enemy, but people fleeing fighting itself. They might be happy with either side in power. But as long as fighting is taking place, they are in danger, so they will leave to find safety. When the fighting is over they will try to return, whichever side is in power.
I’m not sure I agree with that statement, I know it’s not true that they have millions of supporters in areas far outside their own tribal areas. If they had guns we would know, but either way, it’s a good reason why WE shouldn’t be taking part. If they don’t want to fight and aren’t willing to protect their towns, cities and country then we certainly shouldn’t be doing it for them.
I know that support for the Taliban is strongest in the Pashtun areas, but I suspect their appeal is wider than that. A lot of people want to have a tough guy as a leader, even if they don’t care for his ideology. The people of Afghanistan remember the Taliban as a group who could bring stability and order to the country. Even if they don’t like fundamentalism much, that will hold a lot of appeal to many Afghans, especially when put in contrast to the extreme corruption of the existing government, and the shame of being occupied by foreign powers, who hold their civilisation in extreme contempt, for two decades.
I wouldn’t want to be a civilian in or near a war zone either, no matter which side I want to win.
Finally: “Mission accomplished”
OMG, if trillions of $$$ are not enough to subdue the Taliban in twenty years, imagine what it will be when we take on China and Russia! Better increase that defense budget real quick.