Next week’s round of nuclear talks between the P5+1 and Iran will be the fifth round of the latest efforts to salvage the deal. EU officials familiar with the situation say that they believe this could be the final round, and that the deal will ultimately be reached with Iran.
US officials are a lot less upbeat, with envoy Ned Price predicting a sixth round of talks, and likely yet more after that, saying that there are complex issues and that the talks remain indirect, with Iran not wanting direct discussions with the US just yet.
A deal sooner, rather than later, is deal. Iranian officials suggest that a deal happen before Iran’s presidential election, and the replacement of Rouhani in August. Rouhani is a reformist heavily committed to diplomacy, but with his term limit up, there is no certainty Iran’s next president will feel that way.
Indeed, after the US reneged on the initial deal, the hardliners are more than ever pushing the idea that the US can’t be trusted in these talks anyhow. If the wrong person gets elected they might not want to continue the talks at all, meaning a deal with Rouhani could be a last chance for the West.
The EU assessment suggests a deal could be had, but if the US isn’t even going into the talks envisioning a deal, the chances must be worsened.
Israel wants war. And Israel gets what it wants. These talks may just be camo. They are clearly not straightforward.