An Israeli cabinet minister stepped up the threatening rhetoric against Iran, warning that a US return to the nuclear deal would mean war, and said that Israeli warplanes can reach the Islamic Republic.
“A bad deal will send the region spiraling into war,” Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen told Reuters. Anyone seeking short-term benefits should be mindful of the longer-term. Israel will not allow Iran to attain nuclear arms. Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our planes can reach everywhere in the Middle East – and certainly Iran.”
Israel claims the JCPOA is a path to a nuclear-armed Iran because the agreement has an expiration date. But that ignores the fact that Iran is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program, the only one in the Middle East.
High-level Israeli officials visited Washington this week to voice their opposition to the JCPOA as the Biden administration is participating in indirect negotiations with Tehran over that aim to revive the agreement. Israel’s Ambassador to the US Gilad Erdan said on Thursday that Israeli officials conveyed to the US that they will not be bound by the JCPOA and will continue to take action against Tehran.
Erdan said Israeli military officials told their US counterparts that “the freedom of action of Israel to prevent Iran from becoming an existential threat is a freedom of action that will be preserved.” He said the Biden administration “respects” Israel’s position.
Israel has already taken covert action against Iran to sabotage the nuclear negotiations. Most notably was the incident at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, which caused an explosion. The US has tried to distance itself from the dangerous attack but has refused to condemn it.
When asked about the Natanz attack on Wednesday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said, “We certainly believe that there are certain kinds of activities that are unhelpful to diplomacy.” Sullivan also said the US and Israel have a policy of “no surprises,” which suggests Washington could have had foreknowledge of the attack.
So I get to fire the 1st shot from the bleechers. Why does Israel think that it should be the only n-bomb state in the Middle East…??? Certainly not for their good behavior and adherence to UN edicts & resolutions. In fact, instead of good behavior. It’s my view that Israel is becoming the poster face of intolerence, bad behavior and sets a terrible example 4 the world, wanton violence, apartheid and Gaza is their albatros of should be shame. Yeah, let’s put them in a position of power and control. How long before their unfettered rampages cause some entity to cancel their outrageous ticket? O, wait, they had a plan to destroy life on earth if anyone stands up to them. Nice folks before they got greedy, or should I say waaaay too greedy. I was with them back when they started. But power corrupts and they can be the poster face for that too. More than not, little guys that punch way above their ranking, come to an unhappy end. Can’t we just get along…???
“Israel is becoming the poster face . . . ” If it hasn’t become it yet it never will!
Israel will attack.
US MSM will reflexively endorse and justify it as “defense”
American public will lap up the false narrative.
USA policy and military will come to Israel’s “aid”.
USA will be in another ME war for Israel
and will use the pathetic attack as a strike against the “biggest state sponsor of terrorism” canard.
Unfortunately, you may be correct.
A few fighter planes flying low to drop a few bombs on an Iranian power station would achieve absolutely nothing for Israel, and would make Israel look even worse internationally. Iran should stick to their strategy and not be provoked. Maybe increase their enrichment by another 10% just for show.
“Our Warplanes Can Reach Iran”
Should have said- “Our Warplanes Can Reach Iran with impunity”
If they said that, they would be claiming more than they know. Maybe by flying low and quickly, below the radar, they can avoid detection, strike and withdraw. Maybe. But Iran is different from Syria. It might not actually work. They could lose planes. Pilots may even be captured.
Part of the definition of impunity includes “exemption from punishment”. Meaning big daddy war bucks will have their backs no matter what they do. Remember “unwavering” and “ironclad”.
I believe one of the ironclads was sunk? The Merrimac or Monitor.
Indeed, no serious international kickback. Still, America’s ironclad support might rust over time. Israel might think it has a firm grip on the political classes in America. But I think a lot of Israel’s American supporters are actually only pro Israel because Israel is their tool for hurting Arabs. If in future Israel actually properly makes peace with its neighbours, then America would stop being friends with Israel.
Certainly IDF planes can reach Iran- but can they return to Israel without in-flight refueling (I’m not sure Israel has that capability) or landing in a third nation, involving that nation in their acts of war? I’m almost hoping Israel tries this and gets their planes shot down- I really want to see how Israel would spin this as ‘Iranian aggression’. It would be even more fun if Iran invites Russia to help impose a ‘no-fly zone’ and see how Israel reacts.
Yes they have in-flight refueling thanks to Amerika selling/giving them planes
Suppose they are taken down.
Wouldn’t bother me and wonder who crews the planes Amerikans?
Leaving and landing from our base in Quatar.
Russia hasn’t given Syria the help it needs to defend against Israeli attacks, even though Syria hosts a Russian military base, so I don’t think Russia would give Iran that help either. Iran might have the capacity to shoot down Israeli jets on its own though, if they’re clever with their air defenses. Flying so far from their home ground would put the Israelis at a big tactical disadvantage.
Israel always “raising the tensions” with their neighbors.
They can but they won’t. If they were they would not tell us about it.
Israeli warplanes may be able to reach Iran – but what will be waiting there for them – could be a sophisticated air defense system? No-one ever cries to see a bully get his nose bloody.
The penetration of Syrian air defenses may be practice for the penetration of Iranian air defenses
jake,
Just like playing an afternoon game against the Charleston WV, “Power” (farm league baseball team) does not equally prepare a team for a 4 game series at Yankee Stadium.
War is a tragedy,not a game.
jake,
every soldier initially figures that “I am going to make it”
My personal experience is that until they figure it out (or get shot once) – the participants think that it is jolly good fun
Israel has been gathering intelligence on those systems. The Russians have been hiding some key qualities of those systems, not using them, not even turning them on even though they are present.
Both sides are playing cautious games over intelligence, and Russians are expert at the spy game so they should not be discounted in that.
Adversaries test each others capabilities to find weak points-that is part of the reason for the current warfare in Syria
Gee why didn’t Hitler use that excuse for being in Poland – just testing others’ capabilities.
It was a damn good analogy.
This is what it looks like. But when it comes to Russia, carefully look into what it is that you see.
Syria does not have sophisticated air defense systems. It has strong air defense for critical targets, But rudimentary elsewhere. Why? This is a confidence builder, Israel and US are made aware that the level of trust that Russia should have in the duo — is entirely in their hands.
Every time the trust is violated, notes are taken, and recalibration happens. Political recalibration first, military second. Notes are very long now — exposing Israel to more local contempt and disgust.
Look carefully what Israel does in Syria. The message it is sending is for American audience exclusively. It says — we are stopping Iran from arming Hezbollah, and Syrian Shia militia. The message is consistent and long term. Israel and US mostly bombed Iraqi-Syria. border pass.
Russia has noted already that US is keeping ISIS under its Al-Tanf umbrella. And from there, this new US sponsored ISIS moves across the unguarded border pass into Iraq.
It is clear from Iraqi PM that the border terrorist passage is a concern. Israel or US bombing it might soon become an international incident.
Process is the key. Israel has been given ample opportunity to prove to Russia its character. But it has none. No compassion, no mercy, no fear of law — God’s or men’s.
This will not end well for Israel. They know full well that Russia will be very correct and restrained.
Israel is playing with fire on all fronts. Including ample meddling in Ukraine. Israel needs to remember what happened in Azerbaijan when Israel got hold of some “strategic assets” — read few tycoons and government officials. Between Turkey and Russia — Israel has been wiped out.
Russia and Turkey in opposite sides, they always say. How come they always manage to fix things — get the opposite sides either to the table (Libya), to use “their”” side in order to restrain them (Syria), or crush color revolution ambitions (Armenia), Israel’s ambitions (Azerbaijan), give Nagorno Karabakh secure access through Azerbaijan to Armenia (Russia), and secure access to Azerbaijan exclave through Armenian territory (Russia), while establishing Turkey-Russia joint Peace Center (read military-political base). There is much cooperation in all this being on “opposite” sides”. Just please give them chance to be on the opposite sides in Ukraine!
What does Israel have to show for all of it?
It has the alliance with Greek part of Cyprus, only too happy to get a share of East Med gas find, and a debtor state of Greece. And now UAE!
Lets have a close look. Cyprus is a fig leaf for Israeli gas exploration in ITS Extended Economic Zone (EEZ) — which by the way US calls “excessive maritime claims” when it comes to China or India. Oh wait — US and Israel have NOT ratified UNCLOS, thus cannot claim its EEZ privileges AND must forfeit any standing in disputes among signatories!
And poor UAE (literally, no more oil), its towers built on sand literally and figuratively — dependent on West-Asia high level money laundering. In trouble now — forced to spend on Yemen adventure (paying for US private military), and pressured to sign deal with Israel. But now China to the rescue! It is wooing it with setting up
pharma manufacturing, and probably some mega money coming to occupy those towers as London fades.
While in the meantime — Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Iran are talking in cordial tones.
Israel is (maybe) getting the message, panicked visit to Washington real power centers testifies to its concern.
Russia and China work in (not so) mysterious ways. Just stabilizing where possible, cleaning up messes where possible, investing where possible, helping where possible. And gaining respect and trust.
And when absolutely necessary, showing determination and clarity — as in Russia’s troops concentration in Ukrainian border. Not wanting a war — but ready. Without shot fired, Russia just proved a point , and the power balance in Eastern Europe has just shifted. US and Europe, its NATO to be precise, pulled back.
Even rhetoric in Czech Republic is falling apart, while some powerless pawns are still sacrificed, like Romanian belated Russian embassy staff expulsion. One does not have to wonder of the consequences to the sad vassal when it comes to their own bread and butter sacrifice for the NATO cause. Check out Bhadrakumar’s article on the subject.
So that could be why Iranian Intel is in Syria – for practice in repelling an aggression by the aggressor.
What is known is Iran has the S-400. Suppose Iran has engineered them to be much more effective. Suppose Iran has something more advanced that the S-400.
How is it “known” that Iran has the S-400?
Has the S-400 ever performed in combat, and if so, how well?
Good questions. Russia has been protecting that information against The Day, not really using its full power in places like Syria.
We don’t know.
Who wants to find out? Bet that Russian missiles won’t work?
I wouldn’t bet anything. But we’re all creatures of our times. I came up in the Marine Corps being taught how fearsome the T-72 was and that I should hope to never come up against one. Then 1991 came along and we found out the T-72 explodes spontaneously if someone looks at it cross-eyed from an M1 or a Warthog.
The Russian equipment I came across that was any good — and it was VERY good — was the low-tech stuff. The AK-47, and their mortars and towed artillery could take a beating and remain fully functional under circumstances that would leave their American equivalents irreparable. Anything higher-tech than that, not so much.
Which is not to say that things haven’t changed. Maybe they have. I’d be interested in knowing … but not in personally finding out, if you know what I mean.
How do you rate the T34?
I can’t really rate the T-34, since I wasn’t a member of the Wehrmacht on the Eastern Front fighting against it. My understanding is that it was an amazing tank for its time.
Even in 1991, the T54-55s I saw were still great for what they were. Because of the age they were built in and for, their armor couldn’t hold up to the armor-penetrating weapons they faced, but they held up under other strains. I found an abandoned one (hidden under a collapsed metal building at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base) that I could have driven away if I’d been so inclined.
Like I said, we’re creatures of our times. My experience of Russian weaponry on the battlefield of 1991 was that the late Soviet period high-tech end wasn’t very impressive in comparison to the US weapons systems of that time, while the less high-tech stuff was at least as good and quite likely better.
It could be that the post-Soviet Russians have closed the gap on the high-tech end (missiles, tanks, whatever). I’d be interested in evidence of that rather than just assertions, though. I keep hearing about how the S-400 (or even the S-300) will rip US-made aircraft and rocketry a new asshole, but what I haven’t heard are any accounts of it actually doing so.
The first half or so of total production, with two man turrets and no radio, were badly handicapped despite all their real advantages. Later, with three man turrets, 85mm gun, and radios, they were overwhelming.
Mr. Knapp;
I was an electronics engineer for most of my life and I worked in the MIC. Once, I had the opportunity to examine real Soviet radar equipment – it was marvelously made – even things like knobs and chassis were made from real manufactured wood and machined metal (not molded plastic and stamped aluminum) – and the analog circuitry was ingenuous – everything was dual purpose. So, I agree with your analysis. I also examined American missiles vs. what they were claimed to do. All of the miracles claimed were assigned to be done with software. Whether it worked as claimed – maybe/maybe not.
Anyway, these questions about Iranian/Russian capabilities should belong to Israel to find out – not America.
I’ve often seen your point made about Russian equipment, and backed up with good examples.
Then again, there was the MiG-15 over Korea, Sputnik, missiles so large and effective that they delivered US astronauts to the Space Station, antiship missiles so effective that after they sank an Israeli warship off Egypt the terms of naval warfare were re-written and everybody rushed to get such missiles.
Also, their AA missiles worked very well over the Suez Canal, doing vast damage to the IAF until Gen Sharon got tanks across the Canal to dig them out.
More recently, their idea of ground-based ECM warfare proved out so very well that the US Army is now rushing to do some of the same, instead of leaving it to aircraft.
Some of their advanced big stuff has worked.
Some of their advanced big stuff has had quality issues, like the T-34 tank, but recall that even with those issues it was the dominant tank of WW2.
Meanwhile, some of our big stuff is also oversold, as for example the re-evaluation of the Patriot Missiles real success rates in the Persian Gulf War — not really very good at all, sold in the moment as perfection.
Nothing I disagree with there. Like I said, I see my own biases based on particular equipment at a particular time and place as the biases they are. I’m not assuming that the current Russian equipment at the high-tech end isn’t good. I’m just wondering how good it is. And hoping that the US regime isn’t dumb enough to find out how good it is the hard way.
It is a pretty fair bet that some stuff will work better than other stuff, and finding out would be bloody and extremely unpleasant. So the big point is yours, “hoping that the US regime isn’t dumb enough to find out how good it is the hard way.”
That is just as true of finding out which of our own boasts have been oversold, what is just hype. There must be some, considering our longstanding patterns.
Remember the clearance sale of lethal weapons to Iran’s neighbors known as the “Abraham Accords”? Now imagine if Iran had said that their ballistic missiles could reach Israel while those “peace” deals were ongoing. What would our response had been? Just a wild guess but I’d imagine we would have probably threatened them with rhetoric, and action, a little more on the belligerent side than: “We certainly believe that there are certain kinds of activities that are unhelpful to diplomacy.”
Yes, your planes can reach them. And their rockets can reach you! This gentleman has just provided the perfect justification, if one was needed, for Iran’s extensive defensive rocket program!
Exactly. Thanks to Gen Suleimani, forces in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen now have precision guided rockets and missiles pointed at the apartheid state. Such a threat is useful to stay the Zionist Aggressor’s hand. This, of course, is J’salem’s nightmare and why they need the US to do the dirty work. In any case, the political landscape is entirely changed in the ME….
All can say is that Biden better beef up security. The last US President who said “NO” to the apartheid state was JFK… we know how things turned out for him.
Israeli Minister: Our Warplanes Can Reach Iran
Iran: Our missiles can reach Israel.
Says a country that practices apartheid and has nukes.
The Arab world is entirely Juderein-how is THAT for apartheid?
It wasn’t until Israel became the bully of the neighborhood. How do you think the Chosen purchased land in Palestine pre-statehood?
Get over it – every ethnic group/religion has suffered through genocides by their enemies. You’ve been milking it for too many years now, as if that gives you a green light to inflict misery on your neighbors.
Yes, Israel can reach Iran, with a lot of help from its new friends in the region.
That would mean the new friends would suffer the consequences. Are they ready for that?
The Saudi Royals might find themselves fleeing to their money in Switzerland and London, never to return. That would mean a very different middle east, dominated by Iran.
Is that what Israel wants from airstrikes?
year 27 of “we are gona kick your ass any moment now.”
The Iranian missiles can reach Israel faster than Israeli jets could return back to Israel…! No base to land on…!