US efforts to try to get a ceasefire and some peace talks going in Yemen continue to struggle, according to those familiar with the situation, as the focus continues on fighting over the key northern city of Maarib.
The US has been pushing for a ceasefire since March, and is keen to no longer be involved in that war. The Saudis have at least been open to a settlement, and the Houthis seemingly were too. Then fighting in Maarib escalated to the point that the Houthis seemed to have a real chance of taking it.
There’s a lot of fighting and huge tolls, but cities don’t change hands in Yemen very often. With Maarib as effectively the last pro-Saudi city in the north, the symbolism of it falling makes it potentially an even bigger deal, and that’s led the Houthis to focus on it.
Peace has taken a back seat, with both sides hoping that a win in Maarib will give them strong momentum going into any talks held afterwards. The problem is that even escalated fighting hasn’t made the battle resolve any quicker, and time that could be used to make peace is being squandered in hopes of a decisive battle.
The simplest solution would be for all parties to honor the boundaries that existed before between North and South Yemen. Marib and Taiz were part of North Yemen as well as Tihkama coast with ports Mocha and Hodeidah.
This is a no-brainer. The REAL tough issue will be control of the South. It is obscene that US brought UAE into South Yemen, given them support from US private military companies. It became clear that UAE sought to eliminate support for Saudi Arabia in the South. And Saudi Arabia, bordering to Yemen — both North and South — had especially strong family ties in Al-Mahra and Hadhramouth. Port Al-Mukkala was to be Saudi pipeline export point, the only Saudi export point not being in danger of being choked off.
Both Straits of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandeb can be dangerous to Saudi Arabia and its Asia trade.
Saudis insisting on unified Yemen and their control of Hadi is a transparent plot that would have given Saudis physical control if both North and South, or just a legal claim of unified country — thus preventing any foreign military to get bases located on Yemen side of Bab Al-Mandeb.
Now, Saudis have weak hand. North is seeking independence, but what price is US exacting for it? And Saudis — unless they prevail in Al-Mahra and Hadhramouth, and get some leverage in Aden, will be the loser. US/UAE/Israel the winners. Losers will also be Sudan and Egypt — as any US control of Arabian side of Straits would potentially be a danger to their commerce with Asia.
Until it is sorted out who controls the South, the fight with North for LEGITIMACY of unified state — will continue. North is a pawn in bigger game. The solution is not in sight.
As long as the U.S. / Saudi ceasefire proposals include allowing the Saudis to prevent UN approved maritime ships and air traffic from entering N. Yemen at will then they are fake. The blockade itself is the escalation. The offensive at Marib is to initiate a real ceasefire.