In a new op-ed, Robert Kagan argues that the war started by the US and Israel has resulted in Iran becoming the dominant power in the Middle East.
“As a result, Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf,” Kagan wrote in The Atlantic on Sunday. “The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the US or Israel.”
In 1997, Kagan co-founded Project for the New American Century (PNAC), a neoconservative think tank that lobbied for an aggressive foreign policy and the Iraq War. Kagan is a war hawk who has long falsely claimed that Iran is working to build a nuclear weapon, and Washington must prevent Tehran from obtaining nukes. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he launched the war to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Kagan has often argued against military action in favor of causing an uprising of the Iranian people to overthrow the government. The US and Israel attempted to encourage Iranian protesters and rioters in January, but the government in Tehran remained firmly in control.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the US was beginning a new economic war against Iran. Kagan predicts that attempting to win the war through economic pressure will fail.
“The idea that, having survived both military strikes and sanctions, Iran will now succumb to sanctions alone is deluded,” he wrote.
Kagan goes on to argue that Iran will use its newfound power to build nuclear weapons, but control over the Strait of Hormuz is even more consequential.
“The world has spent decades worrying about what Iran might do if it acquired a nuclear weapon. It should now worry about something even more consequential: an Iran that has defeated the United States, no longer fears American attack, and controls access to the Persian Gulf. Nuclear weapons alone could never have given Iran this kind of power.” He added, “The failed U.S. and Israeli war with Iran has.”
