A US official has told The Washington Post that the US believes Iran maintains about 70% of its pre-war stockpile of missiles and 75% of its pre-war inventory of missile launchers, painting a starkly different picture of Iran’s military capabilities following the US-Israeli bombing campaign than what President Trump and his top officials have claimed.
The official said that there was also evidence that Iran has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the US and Israel launched the war.
Just a day earlier, President Trump claimed to reporters that Iran’s “missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
The report also noted that Iran has many more drones, which are much cheaper to make and can be manufactured in small warehouses that are easy to hide. Iran’s drone capability is also the primary way Tehran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.
The Post report focused on a confidential CIA analysis that found Iran can survive the blockade for three or four months before facing more severe economic hardship, another assessment that goes against what the Trump administration has been saying publicly.
Joe Kent, the former head of the US National Counterterrorism Center, has previously argued that continuing the blockade actually puts more pressure on the US than Iran.
“Continuing the blockade puts far more pressure on us than on Iran. Iran has proven it can endure economic pain — it has been doing so since 1979. The blockade will not force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, or its proxy networks,” Kent said in a post on X late last month.
“Instead, the blockade is hurting the American people and creating serious domestic pressure on POTUS: Gas prices will continue to rise as we head into the midterms, harming the working-class voters who overwhelmingly backed Trump and Republicans—putting GOP majorities in serious jeopardy,” he added.
Kent also noted that the blockade is creating a “global fertilizer shortage that will cause major food security crises and potential famines in vulnerable regions.”
