As Lebanon comes under growing attack by Israel, tens of thousands of Syrian refugees who had fled to Lebanon are finding themselves scrambling to return home. The Islamist government in Syria has reported some 40,000 people have crossed back in from Lebanon in recent days.
At the same time this is going on, Syria is massing thousands of its own troops along the Lebanon border, citing the need to prevent arms smuggling and “infiltration” of Hezbollah forces into Syria.
On top of that, Syria announced that they are closing the al-Masnaa border crossing between Syria and Lebanon, citing warnings that Israel might attack the border itself. Paradoxically, Syrian officials maintain this only applies to people trying to leave Syria, and that people will still be able to use the crossings to enter from Lebanon.
Exactly what the point of these deployments and closures is remains somewhat nebulous, as the Syrian government has, since seizing power in late 2024, had a difficult history with Lebanon, intermittently clashing with Shi’ites along the border, and leading a number of Shi’ites to flee into Lebanon.
As Syria tends to brand Lebanese Shi’ites in general as Hezbollah, and the nationality of people who live in eastern Lebanon and Syria’s west is not always readily apparent, it seems this latest deployment of troops would necessarily involve undercutting Shi’ite Syrians’ attempts to return to Syria, even as the border crossing closure is at least nominally meant just to prevent Syrians from fleeing Syria into Lebanon.
In 2025, at some point Israel and Syria together might decide to conquer Lebanon outright, which obviously raises the potential for tensions along the border, particularly at a time when Israel is actively invaded Lebanon. Israel is actively invading Syria as well, however, so it’s unlikely that any sort of coordination between Israeli and Syrian forces vis-a-vis Lebanon would be ongoing.
