One of the early consequences of the Saudi invasion of Yemen was that the local affiliate, called al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), seized substantial territory in the south. AQAP is no longer seen as nearly so high profile, carrying out occasional attacks on various factions but not seen as holding any territory like they once did.
Still, the US views it as something of an active threat, and reportedly killed a senior commander within AQAP, along with several others, in a drone strike in the al-Mahra Governorate on Thursday. The US military has yet to issue a formal statement on the matter.
The name of the slain commander has yet to be disclosed, but locals described him as a “high-ranking” figure in AQAP’s eastern Yemeni operations. The drone strike was reportedly carried out near the Oman-Yemen border.
That the strike happened in al-Mahra may be significant, as that governorate has traded hands multiple times in recent weeks. Pro-Saudi forces seized al-Mahra and the neighboring Hadramaut Governorates early in January from the separatist STC, though the STC has claimed to have retaken parts of the area since then.
The area being on-again, off-again contested may be providing AQAP an opportunity to establish a new foothold, and al-Mahra, which is more off the beaten path as South Yemen territory and sparsely populated. AQAP might be able to more easily contest that region on their own, with mountains and deserts and the Oman border serving as natural boundaries for them.
That’s not to say they wouldn’t face resistance on the ground, as both the STC and the Saudi-backed Giants Brigades have forces in the area, and both would doubtless contest any AQAP incursion when they’re not busy fighting one another.
Still, Yemen, particularly southern Yemen, has remained unstable for well over a decade because of the Saudi invasion, and al-Qaeda in general and AQAP in particular might see that as fertile ground for them, which would explain why the US carried out a strike there when most of their operations in Yemen in the past year have been targeting the Houthis in the north.
