Superficially, one would think that there is substantial progress being made in Lebanon toward an enduring peace. Lebanese officials are advancing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani River, as required by the ceasefire, and Lebanese and Israeli officials have twice met in US-brokered talks surrounding that ceasefire.
Israeli strikes on Lebanon have continued despite the ceasefire, but since Israel’s talking point has long been the need to disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanese officials now say they’ll have completed disarmament south of the Litani in a few days, this seems like it could be a turning point in the situation.
US officials are reportedly contended that Lebanon is advancing on their obligations, but Israeli officials are quoted as saying they view another Israeli war against Lebanon as essentially “inevitable.”
A view shows damaged buildings in the aftermath of what security sources said was an Israeli strike on a market, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, October 13, 2024. REUTERS/Mohammed Yassin
This seemingly rests on Israeli narrative rather than reality. Officials say they don’t believe Lebanon is capable of disarming Hezbollah on their own, so they figure Israeli intervention will be necessary to accomplish it.
This may suggest a growing disconnect between Israel and the US on the matter, as US officials have warned they don’t believe that Israel can destroy Hezbollah militarily in the first place, and only a negotiated deal can get this done.
In practice, Hezbollah seems to be allowing themselves to be disarmed south of the Litani, though they have rejected the idea of full disarmament nationwide, citing the ongoing Israeli occupation of parts of Lebanese territory.
UN officials have said they see no evidence of Hezbollah attempting to rebuild south of the Litani, and since Hezbollah has handed over a number of its former sites to the Lebanese Army for dismantlement, this seems to be progressing as intended, though Israeli strikes have slowed how quickly the Lebanese Army can get this done.
Israel’s justification for their constant attacks on Lebanon is that they believe Hezbollah is rebuilding, though they provide no evidence for this. In the end, it seems that the question of a new war may come down to what Israel insists is happening, even if it is contrary to what people on the ground say is being accomplished.
