While there are continued signs that Israel is escalating toward a new war against Lebanon, there are growing calls to avoid such a conflict and engage in direct talks. This is not just from Lebanon, which has supported diplomacy for months, but also from the United States.
US Ambassador Tom Barrack was quoted this weekend at a summit saying that while he doesn’t think the Lebanese government will successfully disarm Hezbollah, he also doesn’t believe that Israel can destroy the group militarily either.
“My personal opinion is: you kill one terrorist, you create 10,” Barrack said, saying that there needs to be another answer and concluding, “it’s time to march to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, sit down and have a discussion.”
US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barrack | Image from Reuters
Though his opinions about trying to wipe out a terror group through force of arms are hardly unique, the comments mark a sharp departure for Barrack from his talking points, which were previously blaming the Lebanese government entirely for the lack of progress, declaring peace “an illusion,” and suggesting that the US would support a new Israeli war on them.
Whether this represents a genuine change in US policy or simply a rebranding because Barrack was speaking at a summit in Abu Dhabi remains to be seen. That the US seems to be putting any onus on Israel at all for holding talks with Lebanon marks a dramatic change, as previously Barrack was demanding Lebanon agree to talks, Lebanon was agreeing, and then Israel was rejecting them out of hand.
This weekend, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun once again expressed support for negotiations, saying Lebanon wouldn’t just accept that another war with Israel is inevitable. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also backed talks, but noted that deals on the implementation of the 2024 ceasefire must include Israel being held accountable for what they agreed to, which was to stop attacking and withdraw from Lebanese soil.
Perhaps the most noteworthy comment came from Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, who expressed support for the Lebanese government’s pursuit of diplomacy to try to avoid another war. Qassem had previously opposed direct talks with Israel, including last week’s meeting in Naqoura, warning the government against making any major concessions to Israel at the negotiating table.
It’s not clear whether any concessions were made at Naqoura, but Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon the following day, so the appearance was that the meeting, the first between the two nations in over 40 years, accomplished very little.
With everybody of importance in Lebanon behind the idea of talks to avoid the war, and even Tom Barrack suggesting that’s necessarily the direction that needs to be taken, Israel’s reluctance to agree to diplomacy is going to be more and more difficult to justify going forward.
