US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack is once again threatening Lebanon with war, this time from Israel, if they fail to meet US demands to fully disarm Hezbollah. He suggested that even hesitation would “inevitably” lead to a major war with Israel, and dire consequences.
This isn’t the first time Barrack has threatened Lebanon with war. Back in July he suggested that both Israel and Syria would conquer them outright and annex Lebanon if they didn’t give in, later threatening to withdraw the Lebanon file from US diplomatic priorities entirely. He also gave Lebanon a 90 day deadline to disarm Hezbollah, and claimed Israel made up that deadline.
Underpinning the threat of an Israeli attack on Lebanon is that Israel is already actively attacking Lebanon on a virtually daily basis, and indeed has been since the ceasefire was signed in November of last year. At least three strikes were reported Monday.
US Ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barrack | Image from Reuters
In recent days, the attacks are increasingly focused on preventing southern Lebanon from repairing damage inflicted on it by Israeli strikes in last year’s war and this year’s “ceasefire.” This has included attacking construction vehicles and a major asphalt factory.
The incentive for disarming Hezbollah isn’t apparent either, as last month Barrack declared in an interview that “peace is an illusion” and there would probably always be war in the area. Though Israel has threatened to escalate attacks on Lebanon, they are constantly doing so irrespective of the Lebanese government’s actions, so presenting capitulation as an incentive is probably a major challenge.
Hezbollah has rejected the idea of disarming so long as Israel is occupying Lebanese soil and is attacking Lebanese villages. Israel has not formally committed to actually ending the occupation in return for the disarmament, and even if it had it committed to withdraw in last year’s ceasefire and ultimately never did, with the US shrugging and never holding them to account.
