Israeli media began reporting new specificities about the Syria-Israel peace talks that have been ongoing for awhile, and incredibly they seem to suggest that the deal is centering around discussions of carving off parts of Lebanon to give to Syria’s Islamist government.
The normalization was centering heavily around the Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights. Israel invaded and occupied parts of Golan in 1967, and invaded further parts of Golan in December after the ouster of the Assad government. The new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government has argued that public opinion obliges them to try to get the Golan back.
Or at least part of the Golan. Israeli media are suggesting that a compromise under discussion would see Israel return one third of the Golan to Syria, at least nominally, though potentially with Israel being allowed to continuing leasing it, and then compensating Syria with parts of Lebanon.
The HTS is reportedly keen to seize Tripoli, historically Tripoli of the Levant to distinguish it from the one in Libya, arguing it is a Sunni majority city and was separated from Syria proper during the French mandate. They also reportedly want the Bekaa Valley.
This seems like it would be a non-starter for Lebanon, of course, but there is no indication they’re even involved in the discussion. This gives this talk the appearance of Israel and Syria discussing how to carve up their smaller neighbor.
Tripoli is Lebanon’s second largest city, and over 8% of the city’s population is Alawites. That’s another potential problem with Syria annexing the city, because there have been on-again, off-again massacres of Alawites in northwest Syria, resulting in over ten thousand fleeing into northern Lebanon and the Tripoli area. Now, it seems, the city they fled is also up for grabs.
Under this proposal, Israel would also get a water-sharing deal with Syria and Turkey, and would be allowed to construct a pipeline from the Euphrates River. It is unclear from the report where along the Euphrates River this pipeline would connect to, but the river flows through Turkey, northeast Syria and Iraq, though there is no indication that Iraq is in any way involved in these discussions.
A deal with Syria involving them taking over parts of Lebanon with Israeli blessing would presumably put an end to talks of Israel normalizing relations with Lebanon, though since Israel seems reluctant to stop attacking Lebanon or occupying southern Lebanon, there was probably little chance of that happening anyhow.
