US Deputy Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus has delivered an ultimatum to the Lebanese government demanding that they form committees to participate in direct negotiations with Israel by month’s end or face an escalation of US-backed Israeli attacks on Lebanese territory.
The negotiations were announced a little over a week ago, and Lebanon has said no direct talks were happening. Israel has expressed hope that these talks would ultimately give way to normalization of Israel-Lebanon relations.
The US wants direct Lebanon participation, and wants three committees specifically on the issues of the active Israeli occupation of five military outposts inside Lebanon, the border itself, and the potential Israeli release of Lebanese prisoners.
Since Israeli DM Israel Katz has promised Israel will continue to occupy those outposts irrespective of how the negotiations do, Lebanon has seen little interest in participating. Israel released a handful of prisoners when the US first announced the talks as a sign of goodwill.
The US administration clearly wants to present these talks as a big diplomatic win in the region, but the threat of giving Israel permission to escalate military attacks against Lebanon probably doesn’t mean much, since the US has already given Israel a free hand to attack Lebanon throughout the ceasefire, which began in late November, and Israel has carried out hundreds of attacks during that period.
The US also threatened to withdraw from the oversight committee overseeing the ceasefire, which again would mean little since they’ve effectively done nothing to enforce the ceasefire in the face of over a thousand Israeli violations.
Some groups in Lebanon have expressed hopes that the negotiations would lead to less military bellicosity from Israel. Others though have expressed skepticism, and many believe that amid the active military issues with Israel talks extending outside those issues are premature.
The US has not publicly addressed this ultimatum, though Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said other media reports about discussions with Lebanese officials were “baseless” and that the US trusts Lebanon to make its own decisions.
Unconfirmed reports are that Lebanon’s President Aoun is considering adding civilian experts to some of the existing committees, hoping that would be a way to satisfy the US and be seen as partly complying with demands while not fully giving in.
